Welcome to the Bubble Watch. If you’ve been reading through my Eliminator articles, you’d know that I still count 15 teams with a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. (And if you haven’t been reading them, please feel free to go back to them.)
Now that teams have played enough games, we can get a real look at every team’s resume. So, for the 15 teams still alive, I am going to present all of the resumes to you. We’re going to look at every resume so that we can compare what positives and negatives each team has. It’s the easiest and best way to understand what each team is bringing to the table in the College Football Playoff discussion.
How this works
Let’s go over what I’m looking at and why.
Quality of wins
For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between No. 24 and No. 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (CFP, AP, or Amway Coaches), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. Moreover, it just makes sense. The committee is aware of who is a good team and what counts as a win of decent quality, even if that team didn’t quite make it into the rankings.
I also split up every game each team has played into different groups. The groupings are important. First of all, I focus on Top 10 and Top 25 wins. These are, obviously, the quality wins. Next, I’m looking for teams in the Top 40. These are solid wins and deserve respect. The next group is teams somewhere between 41st and 80th in FBS. These are mediocre teams–they are games that any Playoff contender should win, but could in theory lose on an off day. Everyone outside the Top 80 is a complete cupcake game, and should be valued as a negative. To determine where each team is and who is outside the Top 80, I use a collection of computer rankings that focus on different things (e.g. Sagarin and Anderson) to get broad perspectives on who is a cupcake and who isn’t.
The selection committee has consistently mentioned “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric over the past few years, so I’m going to show that to you. It is a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to. I will not count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record. Again, even though the metric is a stupid one–there are cupcakes with +.500 records (for example, Buffalo or Western Kentucky)–the committee cares about it, so we have to as well.
Offensive and defensive performance
I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On one hand, the resume focuses on which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.
Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.
SOS range
The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, especially as different rankings favor different things. They do, however, give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is. Keep in mind, it’s still a little early in the season, so the different SOS methodologies could bring up radically different results. Ranges could still be wide in some cases, but in general they should narrow over the next few weeks.
Next… Teams that control their own destinies
Teams that are Playoff locks if they win out
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| LSU | 2-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 2-20 | 6 | 7.1 (4) | 4.9 (29) |
LSU’s resume is unimpeachable. Great SOS, four Top 25 wins, and a whopping six wins over teams with winning records. The defensive numbers could use a bit of improvement, but LSU’s defense has always got the stops it needed when necessary. LSU is in with one loss, let alone undefeated.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Ohio State | 0-0 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 15-35 | 5 | 7.0 (5) | 3.3 (1) |
The Buckeyes are almost unmatched in the combined metrics. Add three ranked wins to that, plus no losses and a solid SOS, and it’s easy to see why this is a top resume.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Clemson | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 5-0 | 65-100 | 2 | 7.1 (3) | 3.8 (2) |
It’s easy to see why the selection committee wasn’t such a fan of Clemson last week. The only notable win is over Texas A&M. Five cupcakes and bad SOS numbers, which won’t get significantly better over the next few weeks. Of course, the metrics show why Clemson is a top team and why the Tigers are likely to go 13-0.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Georgia | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 4-1 | 2-0 | 40-65 | 4 | 6.4 (15) | 4.2 (6) |
The Bulldogs are the only team in this entire Bubble Watch with a loss to a team in that 40-80 range. There are good wins here, but two isn’t that many by year’s end. Luckily for the Bulldogs, they get Auburn and Texas A&M in the coming week to boost these numbers. Win those two, and a showdown against LSU comes up. Winning out will make this an elite resume.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Minnesota | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 55-95 | 3 | 6.4 (20) | 4.6 (16) |
The stats on this resume will surprise some, especially with how close Minnesota’s early-season games were. But this is a very solid team on both sides of the ball. Only one game against Top 40 teams means there is no meat here, but upcoming games against Iowa and Wisconsin will change that. They will also boost those SOS numbers, which can use some help.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Penn State | 0-1 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 15-25 | 4 | 5.9 (46) | 4.3 (8) |
The Nittany Lions have a very impressive resume, and the next two games are against 7-2 Indiana and 9-0 Ohio State. The offense could be better, but the defense is elite. Honestly, I understand that Penn State is down at No. 9 because the committee wanted Minnesota ahead of the Nittany Lions, but this resume is better than Minnesota’s–and better than several other teams ranked higher, as well. Honestly, compare this resume to Georgia’s above. Why, exactly, is Penn State behind Georgia right now? I don’t know, either.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Baylor | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 50-120 | 3 | 6.4 (18) | 4.4 (10) |
Baylor fans have a bit of a complaint that the Bears aren’t respected enough for their two ranked wins. There’s something to that. Add to that the fact that Baylor has played four Top 40 teams and this seems like a decent resume. But those SOS numbers are just ugly. (The 50 end of it entirely comes from the fact that Massey seems to love the Big 12 in general when it comes to SOS. Baylor still has the worst SOS of any Big 12 team, and if Massey was excluded that range would be 80-120.) The very fact that Baylor can play four Top 40 teams and still have an SOS towards the bottom of the country tells us just how awful the cupcakes that Baylor has played are. The Bears are being punished for an awful nonconference schedule, and it’s hard to blame the committee for it.
Next… Teams that are on the bubble
On the Bubble:
These teams will be shown in where they sit on the bubble. That fact is determined by the strength of the resume if the team in question wins out, not by where it is currently.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Oklahoma | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 30-90 | 2 | 9.0 (1) | 5.1 (36) |
It’s easy to understand why the committee doesn’t like Oklahoma. There are only two meaningful wins, and an SOS that’s weak overall. (Like in my comment on Baylor, Oklahoma’s SOS range would be around 60-90 if Massey was excluded.) Two wins against Baylor would change all of that, though. Three Top 25 wins (four if Oklahoma State can stay ranked) plus a few more solid ones–along with a decent loss–would be at the top of the bubble.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Auburn | 1-1 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 1-15 | 3 | 5.7 (57) | 4.6 (13) |
Why is Auburn so high on this list? How are the Tigers ahead of Oregon, Utah, and Alabama? Just look at this resume. A Top 10 win over Oregon, plus two more potential Top 10 wins? The only losses are to No. 1 LSU and nearly Top 10 Florida. That SOS number should be close to a unanimous No. 1 by season’s end, even with the Samford game in Week 13. The offense could use a little work, but other than that this is one of the strongest resumes we’ve seen in a long time. Only three teams in the Playoff era have ended with three Top 10 year-end wins; Auburn will almost certainly be the fourth if it wins out. Honestly, Auburn is already underrated when looking at the SOS numbers. If wins over Georgia and Alabama are added to this resume, Auburn will be looking at the strongest two-loss resume we’ve ever seen in the CFP era.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Oregon | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 10-50 | 4 | 6.3 (23) | 4.5 (11) |
The Pac 12 has Top 40 teams, and Oregon has played no real cupcakes. The metrics are decent, and the SOS is decent. Nothing over the next three weeks will move the needle much, but Oregon could very well end the season with no cupcakes. Nevada will move out of the 80+ range with two more wins (one might be enough), and the other cupcake is FCS No. 5 Montana. My rule is that all FCS teams count as 80+ no matter what, but Montana is likely right around the edge of that No. 80 range when compared to FBS teams.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Alabama | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 | 2-0 | 25-80 | 2 | 7.6 (2) | 4.6 (20) |
This resume is ugly. The one decent win is over Texas A&M. The only other team with a winning record that Alabama has beaten is Southern Miss. Massey also loves the Crimson Tide’s schedule, and the SOS range excluding Massey would be about 50-80. Alabama’s metrics aren’t anywhere near the usual dominant numbers. The Crimson Tide are getting some major benefit of the doubt for blowing out bad teams, and likely for the Alabama brand and recent success. If we’re judging this resume on resume alone, there’s not much here.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Utah | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5-0 | 2-0 | 35-90 | 4 | 6.3 (22) | 4.4 (9) |
Utah has played two decent teams–USC and Washington–and the Utes split those games. Utah probably also should have lost to Washington. This is one of the weakest overall SOS profiles in the Pac 12, and it won’t get any better over the next three weeks. Utah is winning games convincingly, but I’m looking at this resume and have zero idea why or how the Utes are ahead of teams like Penn State or Minnesota. Why is this resume even ahead of Oklahoma’s?
Next… Teams that are still alive, but barely
Need help:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Wisconsin | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4-0 | 15-30 | 3 | 5.9 (40) | 3.8 (3) |
The Badgers aren’t in a terrible position. The loss to Illinois looks more acceptable each week. They need help to win the Big Ten West, but Iowa beating Minnesota would be good for the resume anyway. If Wisconsin wins out and gets to the Big Ten Championship Game, the Badgers could have four ranked wins. That will be decent, though the win over Ohio State would have to be convincing–otherwise the Badgers (at 11-2) probably wouldn’t be able to even jump the Buckeyes.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Florida | 0-2 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 10-50 | 2 | 60 (36) | 4.9 (28) |
Florida has a decent enough resume, with a good win over Auburn and no bad losses. The wins are thin after that Auburn game, though, so Florida would need an SEC Championship Game win to add meat to the resume. Unfortunately, the Gators can only win the SEC East if Georgia loses its next two games, so their hopes rest entirely on Auburn and Texas A&M right now.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Michigan | 0-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 15-20 | 3 | 5.5 (73) | 4.0 (4) |
Michigan is in the same boat as Florida right now. This resume has decent wins, and could potentially add a solid win over Indiana plus a huge win over Ohio State. Unfortunately, with two losses that won’t be enough to reach the Playoff. Michigan needs to win the Big Ten–and the Wolverines can only reach the Big Ten Championship Game if either Ohio State or Penn State loses to Rutgers. (If Ohio State beats Rutgers this weekend, then Penn State would need to lose to both Indiana and Rutgers, but beat Ohio State.) That does not bode well for Michigan’s chances.
