Good morning. Hurricane Melissa, the strongest storm to hit Jamaica since records began in 1851, made landfall at about midday local time on Tuesday. With winds reaching 185mph and torrential rains, it knocked out power lines, cut off the internet, and demolished buildings; the death toll and extent of the damage are still unknown.
The storm has already hit Haiti and the Dominican Republic; though it was at one stage downgraded to a tropical storm, now it has strengthened again and is expected to arrive imminently in Cuba, where more than 700,000 people have been evacuated. “The reports that are coming in are catastrophic,” Jamaican energy and transport minister Daryl Vaz told Sky News. “Not very much survives a Category 5 hurricane, in terms of infrastructure.”
Melissa is unprecedented in Jamaica – but it is the third category 5 hurricane, the highest designation on the Saffir-Simpson scale measuring wind speed, since hurricane season in the Atlantic region began in June. For the very latest, head to the live blog. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Natricia Duncan, the Guardian’s Caribbean correspondent in Kingston, about the devastation Melissa has left in its wake. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Economy | Rachel Reeves has said Britain can defy gloomy economic forecasts after the fiscal watchdog infuriated ministers by predicting a productivity downgrade would leave her with a £20bn gap to fill in her forthcoming budget.
Sudan | Ethnically motivated mass killings and other atrocities are being reported from El Fasher after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces took control of the city in Sudan’s western Darfur region over the weekend.
UK news | Downing Street has defended the prospect of paying more to house asylum seekers in disused barracks instead of hotels, arguing that quelling public disquiet was worth the extra cost. No 10 said that “communities don’t want asylum seekers housed in hotels, and neither does the government”.
Middle East | Israeli warplanes struck Gaza on Tuesday night, shortly after Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, ordered the military to carry out “powerful strikes” in Gaza, in the most serious test of the increasingly shaky US-brokered ceasefire.
Television | Prunella Scales, the actor best known for playing Sybil Fawlty in the classic comedy series Fawlty Towers, has died aged 93. Scales, who was married to fellow actor Timothy West, was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease in 2013.
In depth: ‘There is no infrastructure in the region that can withstand a category 5 hurricane’
In an advisory message on Hurricane Melissa published yesterday, the National Hurricane Center in the US painted a bleak picture of its likely consequences. For anything in the path of the ring of thunderstorms around the eye of the hurricane, known as the eyewall, “total structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas”, it said. “Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely … Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13ft above ground level, near and to the east of where the centre of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.” Here’s a useful visual guide to how the storm developed.
At a press briefing, the Jamaican prime minister, Andrew Holness, asked the public to heed the severity of the threat. “You have been warned. It’s now up to you to use that information to make the right decision. I have been on my knees in prayer.”
For many Jamaicans, Natricia Duncan said, last year’s Hurricane Beryl – which was less severe but did damage costed at about $200m – is fresh in the memory. “It’s only a year ago,” she said. ‘“Everybody has a very recent memory of how destructive the impact was, and they know how much worse this one could be. So people are really frightened.”
***
Why is Hurricane Melissa so dangerous?
The winds generated by the hurricane are exceptionally fast and destructive – but the storm itself has moved very slowly, at 2-4mph. That is a disastrous combination: it means the storm lingers, doing more damage before it moves on.
“This is a dire situation unfolding in slow motion. A major hurricane slowly crawling toward an island with powerful winds, extreme rainfall, and damaging storm surge is a perilous situation for a place like Jamaica,” AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. “Slow-moving major hurricanes often go down in history as some of the deadliest and most destructive storms on record.”
Natricia pointed to the devastation wrought by Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas in 2019, where “it just sits over a country and has the opportunity to do maximum damage”. There is a psychological impact of that slow pace, she added. “You know it’s coming, and you prepare for it, and you deal with it. But when it’s moving so slowly, that extra time means that the uncertainty and anticipation keeps growing and growing. And there are constant updates that seem to get worse and worse.”
***
What is the extent of the damage so far?
Even before the storm reached Jamaica, powerful winds brought down power lines in Saint Elizabeth parish on the south-west of the island. The most vulnerable areas were communities in Jamaica’s mountains and hills, where winds were expected to reach speeds up to 30% greater than on lower ground.
With seven deaths already reported across the Caribbean, including three in Jamaica, the Kingston authorities did not confirm any official toll overnight. But, Natricia said, “the bottom line is that the country is facing a very tragic and difficult situation, especially in the Saint Elizabeth area. I’ve been trying to reach people there and it hasn’t been possible. They really, really need help.”
In total, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) estimated that about 1.5 million people could be affected in Jamaica alone, a number that an IFRC official said was a potential underestimate. The Jamaican authorities said they expected about 50,000 people to be displaced. It is hoped that airports can be reopened on Thursday to allow the delivery of emergency supplies.
Minister of local government Desmond Mckenzie said that St Elizabeth was “under water” and that the damage there was extensive. He also warned of severe conditions in Clarendon parish on the southern coast, and said some families were trapped in their homes with rescue not yet possible. About 15,000 people are in shelters, and more than half a million are without electricity. The storm also damaged four hospitals and left one without power, forcing officials to evacuate 75 patients.
***
How well prepared is Jamaica for this kind of storm?
Holness said there are 850 shelters across the island, enough for more than 20,000 people. And 50 generators are available to help secure clean water supplies.
But officials have warned some shelters are overcrowded, with others in safer areas less full, and said that “every drop will count” to maintain access to water. Many of the shelters are school buildings that were not designed as evacuation centres, and there are reports that some residents arrived to find them closed.
Natricia spoke to some people living in Port Royal, one severely affected area, who were reluctant to evacuate. “Even though it’s unprecedented, some are wary of shelters, maybe they’ve had stuff stolen or felt unsafe in the past,” she said. “Even among people who aren’t moving there’s an element of fear, of not wanting to let go of the familiarity of their homes.”
While there are building codes in place that seek to mandate safer construction, there is a large informal building sector in Jamaica where such codes are unlikely to be followed. “You have people building homes by putting together what they can find - maybe they’re making a roof out of zinc sheeting,” Natricia said. “When I think about how much of that there is in Jamaica, I worry that 900 shelters doesn’t seem to be enough for the potential need.”
Meanwhile, in Haiti, which has also been hit by the storm, the World Food Program (WFP) said it had only been able to make about 15% of the food it would normally provide available. It blamed a drop in contributions from donor countries now focused on Gaza and Ukraine. Cuba’s president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, denied claims that an ongoing economic crisis had limited his government’s ability to act.
In Jamaica, there was a sense that once as much as possible had been done, the only option was to wait. Holness said: “There is no infrastructure in the region [of the Caribbean] that can withstand a category 5. The question now is the speed of recovery.”
***
What are the key factors in the recovery operation?
Much of the work for the aftermath is already under way. Many shelters are designated as distribution hubs for aid once the storm passes, while supplies such as food rations and medical supplies have been pre-positioned by the Red Cross and WFP.
There are so-called strike teams ready to reconnect hospitals and water plants to the grid as quickly as possible, and aid agencies such as the WFP have mapped air and sea corridors to deliver further supplies. Cholera-prevention and water-purification kits have been placed in regional hospitals, and Jamaica has triggered the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility to ensure emergency funds.
While all those measures will be important, there is also a clear sense of practical limits on what can be prepared in advance, Natricia said. “I interviewed a minister who said ‘How do you prepare for a category five? What do you do when it’s that severe?’ I really feel for Caribbean governments because it is a very hard thing to find an answer to. The infrastructure you built is gone and you still owe for it and it plays out again and again.”
***
Is the hurricane related to the climate crisis?
In short: yes. As Oliver Milman writes in this piece, there is a likely link between the speed at which Melissa grew into a category 5 hurricane and the rapid heating of the world’s oceans.
The director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, Evan Thompson, said that the rapid strengthening of the storm was due to excessively high water temperatures: storms draw energy from warm water, and the exceptional conditions probably make Melissa more powerful than it would otherwise have been. Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at the science nonprofit Climate Central, told NPR that hot ocean temperatures were made 500 to 700 times more likely by the climate crisis.
With two storms in quick succession, people may now be more aware that similar disasters in the future are more likely, Natricia said. “People may start to rethink how they live. But it’s also a fact that not everybody has the luxury of making those choices. We know the stark reality in the Caribbean now is that we can have a day’s notice that some monster is going to come that humans can’t really match.”
What else we’ve been reading
Don McCullin (above) is 90, and sceptical of the value of his photographs. “I feel as if I’ve been over-rewarded, and I definitely feel uncomfortable about that, because it’s been at the expense of other people’s lives,” he tells Emine Saner. “It’s done absolutely no good at all.” You may have more faith in his work as an act of witness; in any case, the images are extraordinary. Archie
Campaigner Kwajo Tweneboa’s piece on where Awaab’s law, which came into force on Monday, will fall short is a really important read in a time where we don’t talk about housing rights enough. Poppy Noor, deputy newsletters editor
Hello! I am a woman who loves using exclamation points! Largely to soothe, make you think I am joking, or easy-going, or just to let you know that whatever I just asked of you, no worries if not!! So I very much enjoyed today’s pass notes on women’s excessive exclamation mark use. Poppy
As Marina Hyde suggests, the hardest question about Sarah Pochin’s crusade against diversity in advertising is ... genuinely, who cares? “I’ve tried to be driven mad by this, but it’s incredibly hard to get that invested in the commercial future of big sofa,” she writes. “Maybe that makes me an enemy of growth.” Archie
This piece interviewing some very big actors who have been besieged by stage fright gave me a whole new understanding of how the famous cope (or don’t cope) with fear – plus a new phrase: “Doing a Stephen Fry”. Poppy
Sport
Football | England ran out comfortable 3-0 victors over Australia in their friendly, with goals from Aggie Beever‑Jones, Lucy Bronze and Georgia Stanway. But a bad knee injury to Michelle Agyemang deflated the party atmosphere.
Cricket | In their second one-day international, England had reduced New Zealand to 173-5 a few minutes ago after 33 overs. Follow it live here.
Tennis | Cameron Norrie produced the greatest win of his career as he recovered from a set down to topple the world No 1 Carlos Alcaraz 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the second round of the Paris Masters. Although he has defeated Alcaraz on two previous occasions, Norrie’s triumph marks his first ever victory over a reigning No 1.
The front pages
“Reeves vows to defy gloom after £20bn budget blow” – the chancellor shows a brave face in the Guardian, while the Express demands on behalf of its readership that “OAPs must be given a ‘fair deal’ in budget”. “Councils told to end four-day weeks” – that’s the Telegraph. The Times runs with “Labour to miss 1.5m homes target, housebuilders warn”. The i paper splashes on “Storm of the century: 185mph hurricane bigger than Katrina” while the Metro calls Melissa “Pure fury” and the Mirror has “Hell at 185mph”. The Mail has “Afghan held over murder of dog walker came to the UK in a lorry”. Top story in Wednesday’s Financial Times is “Microsoft tops $4tn valuation after OpenAI restructuring”.
Today in Focus
The comeback of the mountain gorilla
Patrick Greenfield hikes up the Virunga mountains in east Africa to trace the remarkable comeback of the mountain gorilla
Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Annabel Lee (pictured above) spent her school days dodging cardio at all costs (hands up, anyone else who regularly volunteered to be goalkeeper). When she did exercise, it was all about burning calories – thanks to 90s diet culture for that. But then she tried a 2km junior parkrun with her five-year-old daughter.
“Running alongside her, I was amazed at her attitude and ability,” says Lee for this week’s The one change that worked. “She did not complain. She did not try to bunk out early. She appeared to be genuinely enjoying herself. Afterwards … my daughter told me she had loved the run – and to my surprise, so had I.”
Lee is now training for a marathon and junior parkruns have become a regular occurrence. “I’ve stopped focusing on how ‘good’ or ‘bad’ my runs are … Instead I follow my daughter’s lead and relish the moment, grateful that my body is able to propel me around the track alongside her.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
