For years, smartphone buyers have played the waiting game. A phone launches at Rs 29,999, early adopters rush in, and everyone else waits for the inevitable festive sale, bank offer, or price drop. By Diwali, the same device is often thousands of rupees cheaper.
That cycle may be breaking.
In 2026, smartphone prices are not just rising at launch. They are staying high longer, increasing months after release, and in some cases, older phones are becoming more expensive over time. Industry analysts say the era of predictable smartphone discounting may be coming to an end and artificial intelligence is one of the biggest reasons why.
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The same memory chips powering ChatGPT, AI servers, and massive data centres are now competing directly with the components inside everyday smartphones. And right now, the AI industry is winning that fight.
“The best time to buy your smartphone was yesterday”
That is the warning Nothing co-founder and India President Akis Evangelidis recently gave users in a video posted on Instagram.
According to Evangelidis, memory chips that previously cost smartphone makers around $20 per device have surged to over $100 in some cases due to exploding demand from AI infrastructure companies. Those chips are now increasingly being redirected toward AI data centres instead of consumer electronics.
For smartphone brands, that changes the math entirely.
A company building a mid-range $400 smartphone may traditionally have targeted a bill of materials around $200. But if one component suddenly eats up half that budget, manufacturers are left with fewer options. Either the price goes up, or the rest of the phone gets compromised.
That is already starting to happen.
The quiet downgrade happening inside budget phones
Walk into a smartphone store today and many of the “new” budget devices may not actually be new.
Industry executives told The Economic Times that brands are increasingly relaunching older phones under slightly different names while keeping most core specifications unchanged. Some are reusing the same processors, camera modules, and designs from previous generations, while charging significantly more.
In some cases, brands are even stepping backwards.
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Certain budget models that previously offered 5G support are now returning to 4G in order to control costs, another executive in the smartphone manufacturing ecosystem told ET. Others are reducing camera quality, lowering storage variants, or making only cosmetic changes like a slightly larger battery or tweaked rear camera module.
The reason is simply that many older smartphones can no longer be profitably sold at their original prices because component costs have risen too sharply.
Prachir Singh, senior research analyst at research firm Counterpoint Research said that more than 130 smartphone models have already seen price increases in just the last two months, with some devices receiving multiple hikes within weeks.
Analysts at Omdia say entry-level devices in some markets have become 50-60% more expensive compared to earlier generations despite minimal improvements.
For users, this means the traditional assumption — “I’ll wait a few months for the price to drop” — may no longer hold true.
Premium phones are surviving. Budget buyers are paying the price
The memory crunch is not affecting all smartphone companies equally.
Brands heavily dependent on budget and mid-range phones — including Xiaomi, Realme, OPPO, vivo, and Transsion — are under the greatest pressure because their businesses rely on thin margins.
Premium brands, meanwhile, are better insulated.
Apple has reportedly managed to maintain relatively stable pricing because of long-term supply agreements and stronger cash reserves. Counterpoint Research says Apple’s revenues grew sharply in Q1 2026 despite the broader slowdown, helped by stronger demand for premium models like the iPhone 17 Pro Max.
Samsung Electronics has taken a different approach: pushing users toward higher storage variants and eliminating cheaper configurations altogether, effectively increasing average selling prices without overtly hiking flagship pricing.
That reflects a larger shift happening across the industry.
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Smartphone makers are increasingly prioritising premium devices because they offer better profit margins during a component shortage. Analysts say newer chipsets and better hardware are often being reserved for higher-end models, while budget categories see compromises.
In other words, the affordable smartphone market is no longer where innovation is happening first.
So, should you buy now or wait?
There is no universal answer. But the old logic of waiting for inevitable discounts is becoming far less reliable.
A phone launched today may not be dramatically cheaper six months later. In some cases, it may even cost more if component prices continue rising.
That does not mean smartphone sales will disappear entirely. Brands will still offer exchange deals, financing options, cashback schemes, and festive promotions. But the days of steep post-launch price erosion may gradually fade, especially for popular mid-range devices.
For consumers, the shift could fundamentally change buying habits.
Instead of timing purchases around sales, buyers may increasingly need to decide based on necessity — because the next sale might not actually save them much at all.
