Voting is under way in a knife-edge parliamentary election in the Netherlands that polls suggest could again be won by the far-right Freedom party (PVV) of Geert Wilders, although there is little chance of it being part of the next government.
The PVV, which finished a shock first in the last election and formed a short-lived, four-party rightwing coalition, has seen its once sizeable lead fade fast. With nearly half the electorate undecided, analysts say the race is too tight to call.
Final polling averages suggest Wilders’ party could win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament, well down on the 37 it captured in the 2023 elections. Even if it does finish first, all major parties have ruled out going into government with the anti-immigration firebrand.
Wilders pulled the plug on the outgoing government in June, less than a year after it took office, when the PVV’s coalition partners refused to endorse his radical anti-refugee plans, widely seen as unworkable or illegal.
By the end of a campaign dominated by migration, healthcare costs and the Netherland’s acute housing crisis, mainstream parties spanning the spectrum from centre-left to moderate right had narrowed the PVV’s early lead to almost nothing.
“It’s up to the voters today,” Wilders – who has spent 20 years under police protection – said on Wednesday after voting, surrounded by security guards, at city hall in The Hague. “It’s a close call – four or five different parties. I’m confident.”
Leading the chasing pack was the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance (GL/PvdA) headed by the veteran former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, which is projected to capture between 22 and 26 seats.
Timmermans took his black labrador to a polling station in his home city of Maastricht in the southern Netherlands. “It’s going to be so close, so let’s hope we come first,” he said. “That’s the only guarantee to avoid a rightwing government.”
Also forecast to do well was the liberal-progressive D66, which is projected to more than double its tally from nine to between 21 and 25 seats after a resolutely optimistic, high-energy campaign headed by its 38-year-old leader, Rob Jetten.
“My message to everyone is that if we run on positive platforms … it’s possible to defeat the populists and to work together with the broad middle and centrist parties to deliver real results,” he said after casting his vote in The Hague.
The centre-right Christian Democrat CDA is expected to increase its number of MPs fourfold, from five to between 18 and 22. “I believe the Dutch are not extreme,” said its leader, Henri Bontenbal. “Most Dutch people want moderate policies from the political centre.”
After months of ineffectual infighting, the members of the outgoing cabinet – the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB) and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, some heavily.
Under the proportional Dutch system, 0.67% of the vote yields one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.
This high degree of fragmentation means no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – composed, in the three most recent governments, of four parties – for more than a century.
Wilders has said “democracy will be dead” in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government, but opponents and experts say first place does not guarantee government and any coalition with a majority is democratic.
While the outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may take months, analysts say that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by the centre-left or moderate right.
Polling stations, including in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) on Wednesday and will close at 9pm, with a usually reliable exit poll expected shortly afterwards.
After the vote, an informateur tests possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.
• This article was amended on 29 October 2025. The projected rise in D66 seats is closer to a doubling than a fivefold rise as stated in an earlier version. Similarly, the projection for the CDA is a fourfold increase, rather than a doubling. Their current seat numbers have been added for clarity. Also, the headline was amended to correct a misspelling of Geert Wilders’ first name.
