The horrors of Gaza have finally come to haunt the world’s policy-makers. Yesterday, the British government grasped at the talisman of recognising a Palestinian state without explaining how this might stop the violence.
Enter Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, three Arab countries that have demanded that Hamas now free the remaining Israeli hostages, lay down its arms and cease governing Gaza, for the sake of enabling Palestinian statehood and the chance of achieving a two-state solution.
Let’s not get our hopes up. The three Arab states have joined 14 other countries at a three-day conference at the United Nations in signing up to a French initiative that also requires Israel to agree to a ceasefire, end its blockade and recognise a Palestinian state in “all occupied Arab lands” – a point that is certain to be rejected by the current Israeli government since it means withdrawing from the West Bank and East Jerusalem where so many Jewish settlers live.
But having the Arab world call the very future of Hamas into question for the first time is a potential game-changer for the Middle East. It’s certainly a nail in the coffin for the terrorist group.
President Trump’s Abraham Accords, signed at the tail end of his first term in the White House, were supposed to isolate Hamas by drawing Arab states into mutual recognition of Israel, with the promise of a web of trade deals and security guarantees against their mutual enemy Iran.
However, Saudi Arabia had been cautious about opening diplomatic relations with Israel, even before the events of 7 October 2023 made that an impossibility. The rampage by Hamas terrorists that day was intended to kill any chance of a Saudi-Israeli rapprochement by provoking a brutal Israeli response that would outrage Muslim opinion. Israel’s bombing and blockades had that effect, though less so with Arab regimes.
Egypt has long been deeply hostile to Hamas. In 2013, when General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi toppled Egypt’s democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi, he came to power over the corpses of hundreds of Muslim Brothers, a group affiliated with Hamas.
Qatar has been the odd monarchy out. It has housed Hamas’s exiled leaders in Doha for decades, and Qatar’s energy wealth subsidised Gaza after Hamas established itself in power there after 2006, when other oil-rich Gulf states pulled their aid. In 2017, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince led his allies and Egypt in blockading Qatar as a “sponsor of terrorism” – meaning Hamas in particular.
Until now, Qatar’s absolute ruler has acted as a go-between for Israel, the United States and Hamas. The Gulf state’s shift will put real pressure on Hamas, which is battered but unbowed by Israel’s fightback since the 7 October attacks.
So what might a surrender deal for Hamas look like? The last four decades of Middle Eastern history may have an answer – of sorts.
In 1984, the brutal war in Lebanon, which had started when Israel invaded to stop raids across its border by the Palestine Liberation Organisation, ended when Israel agreed to let the PLO be exiled in Tunisia.
But it’s far from a failsafe blueprint for peace. Today’s Tunisian government is vocally critical of Israel, but there is no sign that President Kais Saeed is keen to provide a refuge for Hamas fighters, even if they were willing to leave Gaza. Nor would France and Italy be happy to see battle-hardened veterans move west along the Mediterranean coast.
Gulf states that remember how PLO leader Yasser Arafat’s supporters in Kuwait backed Saddam Hussein’s invasion there are not going to warmly welcome refugees from Gaza. Plus, Arab states’ vocal condemnation of Benjamin Netanyahu’s war does not extend to housing its victims.
Another word of caution. Without US backing, it is hard to see how the Franco-Saudi plan will bring a quick end to the war. Israeli opinion is split on Netanyahu, but there is little sign of a revival of support for a “land for peace”, a settlement whereby Israel withdraws from the occupied territories in exchange for peaceful coexistence with a neighbouring state of Palestine.
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