Labor’s socialist left is moving to cement its dominance in Victoria, using renegotiations of the factions’ stability pact to push for the federal seat of Isaacs now held by Labor right member Mark Dreyfus.
It comes amid speculation that the former attorney general, who was dumped from cabinet in May, could resign before the next federal election.
Talks over a new agreement between the socialist left – the faction aligned with the premier, Jacinta Allan – and Labor unity, which includes the Australian Workers’ Union, Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees’ Association (SDA), Transport Workers’ Union (TWU) and their members, have been ongoing for weeks.
The left wants the new deal to better reflect its dominance in the Victorian branch, following internal elections at the August state conference where it secured 57 of 100 spots on the Victorian public office selection committee – the body that controls half the vote in candidate preselections.
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That result was shaped in part by the absence of two right-aligned players: the suspended CFMEU construction division and the Health Workers Union (HWU), which did not send a delegation.
According to a senior Victorian Labor source, unauthorised to speak publicly, a “key sticking point” for the left in negotiations was securing a guarantee for the next available federal seat.
This is widely expected to be Isaacs, a suburban Melbourne electorate encompassing parts of the Greater Dandenong and Kingston municipalities, amid growing speculation that Dreyfus could soon quit politics.
Dreyfus was dumped from cabinet after Labor’s landslide May federal election victory, pushed out along with the former minister Ed Husic, to make way for right faction figures Sam Rae and Daniel Mulino. The defence minister, Richard Marles, was a key architect of the factional deal.
The former Bill Shorten staffer Steve Michelson, who lives in the area, is expected to contest the seat for the right.
But some party sources have pointed to the national secretary, Paul Erickson, as a potential candidate, noting that if he chose to run, no serious opposition would be expected. Erickson is a member of the left.
“If he wants it, it’s his,” one said.
Another party figure said Erickson was the most powerful person in the Australian Labor party after the prime minister, Anthony Albanese – who is also in the left faction – having engineered two election victories, but expressed doubt he would be interested in running for Isaacs.
Asked about his future immediately after the election, Erickson said he would decide whether to seek another term as the party’s national secretary before the end of 2025.
Dreyfus, who turned 69 this month, has not given any indication of his plans, keeping silent about his treatment in the post-election reshuffle and his future in parliament.
A Victorian Labor source aligned with the MP said it was “absolutely wishful thinking – from both factions – that Mark is actually going anywhere”.
The carving up of federal electorates as part of cross-factional deals is not without precedent in the Labor party. The previous stability pact included a commitment from the socialist left to back a Labor unity candidate for the then new seat of Hawke, which Rae now holds.
The outer metropolitan seat of Gorton was handed to the right after the left MP Brendan O’Connor announced he would not contest the 2025 election in July 2024. The inner suburban seat of Maribyrnong, meanwhile, went to the left after Shorten, a member of the right, announced his retirement from politics in September 2024.
Several senior left figures said their faction was “clearly” entitled to Isaacs and one other federal seat.
But a right-aligned source said the left “won’t be getting Isaacs without a fight”.
They said that the left were “attempting to change the rules to suit them” by calling for extra seats federally when it is overrepresented in Victorian parliament.
As part of the new stability agreement, the factions have agreed to formalise the handover of seven right-aligned seats to the left after MPs from the National Union of Workers defected after the 2022 election.
But they have been unable to reach an agreement on the carve-up of Victorian upper house seats, with preselections delayed due to May next year as a result. At present, the left holds just two of the eight number-one spots.
Sources agreed there was an urgency to renew the stability deal before preselections begin in coming weeks.
The new deal will remain in place through the preselection for the 2026 and 2030 Victorian state elections, and any federal preselection rounds before 31 December 2030.
Dreyfus was approached for comment.
