Political tensions in New Caledonia have flared, as its main pro-independence coalition FLNKS voted against a deal that would have given the French overseas territory some sovereign powers – but no independence referendum, a key demand for activists. France's Overseas Minister Manuel Valls is now heading to the archipelago, in what will be a decisive week for its future.
New Caledonia is once again at a political turning point.
The Kanak Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) voted on 9 August to reject outright the Bougival agreement – a French plan signed last month to give the territory its own nationality and some powers, but no new independence referendum, which had been hailed as a potential breakthrough.
The FLNKS is calling instead for a new "Kanaky agreement" and elections this November.
Valls will fly to the Pacific archipelago this week, tasked with navigating a fraught political landscape and seeking an opportunity to restart dialogue.
The agreement, signed in mid-July in the Bougival suburb of Paris, had been presented as a historic step for the Pacific territory.
It proposed the creation of a New Caledonian nationality and envisaged the transfer of key sovereign powers to the territory, including over currency, justice and policing.
New Caledonia independence bloc rejects deal giving powers but no referendum
It was also the first concrete move towards a fresh constitutional settlement after years of tension following the 1998 Nouméa Accord.
Under that deal, France had pledged to steadily hand more political power to New Caledonia and its indigenous Kanak people, setting the stage for two decades of greater self-government.
But after an internal review, the FLNKS rejected the Bougival deal, with Dominique Fochi, secretary-general of the Caledonian Union, saying it clashed with the "foundations and achievements" of their struggle for independence.
FLNKS president Christian Tein described the accord as rushed and "humiliating" for the Kanak people, claiming the negotiators in Paris had no proper mandate.
This rejection has left the Bougival text in limbo, as no settlement is possible without the FLNKS on board.
'The door remains open'
Valls had already announced plans to visit New Caledonia during the week of 18 August prior to the FLNKS’s formal withdrawal from the deal.
In a social media post, he called the Bougival accord "an extraordinary and historic opportunity" but stressed that his "door remains open" in terms of understanding the reasons behind its rejection.
The challenge for Valls will be to break a political deadlock.
Relations between pro and anti-independence camps had shown tentative improvement in recent months – evidenced by a rare handshake between Loyalist MP Nicolas Metzdorf and independence leader Emmanuel Tjibaou in Bougival – but that goodwill has now all but evaporated.
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Election demands
The independence movement has made its conditions for talks clear.
It wants provincial elections to be held in November 2025, arguing that fresh mandates are needed to establish the legitimacy of both camps.
These elections were originally scheduled for May 2024, but were postponed twice due to last year’s deadly riots.
The Bougival agreement would have delayed them further, to mid-2026 – a move Valls and New Caledonia's loyalists support, but which the FLNKS rejects outright.
The independence coalition is also demanding a new "Kanaky agreement", to be signed on New Caledonia Day this year – 24 September. This agreement which would set a roadmap for New Caledonia to achieve "full sovereignty" before France’s 2027 presidential election.
It also insists that talks be held under the supervision of Tein, despite his ongoing legal troubles related to his arrest in 2024, when he was accused of instigating violence during the riots.
Loyalist counter-measures
The Loyalists – the coalition against independence – meanwhile, are working to keep the Bougival process alive, even without the FLNKS.
They’ve proposed an editorial committee to draft a legal framework for the accord, as well as an ad-hoc technical group including any independence supporters still on board.
The aim is to maintain momentum and isolate FLNKS hardliners.
Metzdorf has highlighted that two moderate independence parties – Palika and the Progressive Union of Melanesia – have already left the FLNKS, reducing its breadth of representation.
The pro-French bloc argues that the Bougival agreement remains the best way to secure political stability, warning that FLNKS demands amount to "blackmail" and could trigger more violence.
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Legal backdrop
The Nouméa Accord – the 1998 deal governing New Caledonia’s gradual decolonisation – states that until a new agreement is reached, its provisions remain in place.
It states that provincial elections must be held every five years, with November 2025 the next deadline. This could bring the election timetable closer to the FLNKS’s preference, but without their preferred early sovereignty clause.
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The scars of the 2024 riots, sparked by changes to the electoral roll, remain on both sides.
Loyalists fear a repeat if talks collapse again, particularly if hardliners ramp up street pressure.
While for their part, independence supporters argue that the Bougival agreement’s delays and partial transfer of power risk entrenching the status quo indefinitely.
