San Antonio, Texas-based Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products worldwide. Valued at $40.9 billion by market cap, the company operates through Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol segments.
Shares of VLO have significantly lagged behind the broader market over the past 52 weeks. VLO stock has dropped 13.4% over this period, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 12.7%. However, shares of VLO are up 10.2% on a YTD basis, outpacing SPX’s marginal return during the same time frame.
Zooming in further, VLO has outperformed the industry-focused VanEck Oil Refiners ETF's (CRAK) 18.3% decline over the past year and 9.5% gains in 2025.
Valero Energy’s stock prices fell 1% following the release of its mixed Q1 2025 results on Apr. 24. Its revenue for the quarter declined 4.7% year-over-year to $30.3 billion but exceeded the Street's expectations by 6.3%. Meanwhile, due to lower spreads, its adjusted EPS tanked 76.8% year-over-year to $0.89, but surpassed the consensus estimates of $0.43 by a huge margin. On a more positive note, the company raised its quarterly dividend by 5.6% compared to the year-ago quarter to $1.13 per share, showcasing its commitment to shareholders.
For the current fiscal year 2025, ending in December, analysts expect VLO's adjusted EPS to drop approximately 30.1% year-over-year to $5.93. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history. It beat the Street's bottom-line estimates in three of the past four quarters while missing on another occasion.
Among the 18 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on 15 “Strong Buy” ratings and three “Holds.”
This configuration is slightly more bullish than a month ago, when one of the analysts covering VLO gave a “Strong Sell” recommendation.
On May 13, Goldman Sachs (GS) analyst Neil Mehta raised VLO’s price target to $154 and upgraded the stock to a “Buy” rating.
As of writing, Valero Energy’s mean price target of $142.50 implies a modest 5.5% premium to current price levels, while the Street-high target of $158 suggests a notable 16.9% upside potential.
