The U.S. government is undergoing the most significant overhaul of its critical minerals list. The proposal would add six new commodities, seen as vital to national security and economic stability.
The draft 2025 list, released Monday by the Department of the Interior and developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, would expand the roster to 54 minerals, with copper, silver, potash, silicon, rhenium and lead recommended for inclusion. Arsenic and tellurium are set to be removed.
"President Trump has made clear that strengthening America's economic and national security means securing the resources that fuel our way of life," Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a statement. "This draft list of critical minerals provides a clear, science-based roadmap to reduce our dependence on foreign adversaries, expand domestic production, and unleash American innovation."
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Under the Energy Act of 2020, the list should be updated every 3 years, helping to guide federal investment, permitting, and resource recovery efforts. It also identifies the weak points of domestic supply chains, helping to mitigate risks for U.S. industries.
The latest revision marks the first time copper and potash have been considered critical, reflecting concerns about potential trade barriers and supply disruptions in Canada and Mexico. Silver was added to guard against a low-probability but high-impact shock in Mexico, while lead and rhenium, both narrowly excluded in 2022, made the cut under the new methodology.
USGS acting director Sarah Ryker said the new model represents "a next-generation risk assessment" designed to measure both the likelihood and economic fallout of supply disruptions.
"Minerals-based industries contributed over $4 trillion to the U.S. economy in 2024, and with this methodology, we can pinpoint which industries may feel the greatest impacts of supply disruptions and understand where strategic domestic investments or international trade relationships may help mitigate risk," she said.
This policy change could help domestic projects like Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) and BHP's (NYSE:BHP) Resolution Project in Arizona, Hudbay Minerals' (NYSE:HBM) Copper World Project, but also the controversial Northern Dynasty Minerals (OTCQX:NDM) Pebble Project in Alaska.
The updated methodology tested more than 1,200 disruption scenarios across 84 mineral commodities and 402 industries. It flagged samarium, rhodium, lutetium, terbium and dysprosium as posing some of the most significant probability-weighted risks, particularly for defense and semiconductor supply chains.
Even if those risks appear small when measured against the $29 trillion U.S. economy, the report warns that an actual disruption of a single mineral could ripple through entire sectors.
The draft will be published in the Federal Register on August 26, opening a 30-day public comment period. The final version could also consider adding metallurgical coal and uranium, which are currently excluded as fuels, before being finalized later this year.
Price Watch: iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (NASDAQ:ICOP) closed the day at $31.95, gaining 0.06%. It is up 25.20% year-to-date.
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