If you follow us at all here at Buckeyes Wire, then you know I’m a big fan of checking in on the analytics website FiveThirtyEight. I love analytics, not because they tell the whole story of what’s going on within the confines of competition, but because they at least tell part of the story that’s going on.
And while predicting which teams will make the College Football Playoff isn’t quite to that level, I’d say the folks at FiveThirtyEight have more data and formulas that I trust more than others that try to do something similar.
Along those lines, and between the same guardrails, FiveThirtyEight updated its 2022 College Football Playoff Predictions model after the initial release of the 2022 College Football rankings on Tuesday, and it did indeed change some things from before that baseline was set.
As you can imagine, teams like Ohio State, Georgia, Tennessee, Clemson, Michigan, and Alabama have some of the best odds. But it’s more than that. You can even play around with if teams win out or have a conference championship in their pocket to see how it changes all of the numbers.
Here’s where things stand after Week 9 and after all the bruhaha of the first CFP rankings on Tuesday. Oh, and we are only including teams that have a 5% chance or better just so we have some ground rules set.
16
No. 15 (tie) - Illinois Fighting Illini (7-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
5% (⇑)
Chances if win out
96%
15
No. 15 (tie) - LSU Tigers (6-2)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
5% (⇑)
Chances if win out
87%
14
No. 12 (tie) - North Carolina Tar Heels (7-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
6% (⇑)
Chances if win out
64%
13
No. 12 (tie) - Ole Miss Rebels (7-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
6% (⇑)
Chances if win out
67%
12
No. 12 (tie) - Kansas State Wildcats (6-2)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
6% (⇑)
Chances if win out
63%
11
No. 10 (tie) - Utah Utes (6-2)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
7% (⇑)
Chances if win out
25%
10
No. 10 (tie) - UCLA Bruins (7-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
7% (⇑)
Chances if win out
54%
9
No. 9 - USC Trojans (7-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
12% (⇔)
Chances if win out
65%
8
No. 8 - Oregon Ducks (7-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
14% (⇑)
Chances if win out
70%
7
No. 6 (tie) - TCU Horned Frogs (8-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
29% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
6
No. 6 (tie) - Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
29% (⇓)
Chances if win out
98%
5
No. 5 - Michigan Wolverines (8-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
34% (⇓)
Chances if win out
>99%
4
No. 4 - Tennessee Volunteers (8-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
48% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
3
No. 3 - Clemson Tigers (8-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
57% (⇓)
Chances if win out
>99%
2
No. 2 - Georgia Bulldogs (8-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
60% (⇓)
Chances if win out
>99%
1
No. 1 - Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
68% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
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