As Moldova heads towards parliamentary elections in September, concerns are mounting over an alleged Kremlin-backed campaign to alter the country’s pro-European direction.
Moldova's pro-European leader, President Maia Sandu, has warned that Moscow is orchestrating an "unprecedented" campaign to sway the outcome in its favour.
"The Russian Federation wants to control Moldova from the autumn," she declared at a press conference on 30 July. "They are preparing massive interference to get their people into the next parliament."
Sandu, who has been a vocal critic of the Kremlin, particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, outlined a broad playbook of alleged interference tactics: vote-buying funded through cryptocurrencies, violent protests, cyberattacks and information manipulation – all coordinated from a "single command point" in Moscow.
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Diaspora targeted
With the country's European Union accession talks officially launched in June 2024, the outcome of the parliamentary vote could cement, or derail, Moldova’s Western trajectory.
The ruling centre-right Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), led by Sandu, is currently polling at 39 percent, with the pro-Russian Socialist party trailing at just under 15 percent.
However, a sizable 30 percent of voters remain undecided.
"It’s clear Russia is pulling out all the stops," said Stanislav Secrieru, Moldova’s national security adviser, in an interview with Politico.
He pointed to a "renewed blitz" targeting Moldovans abroad, with nearly a quarter of a million voters outside the country eligible to cast their vote.
"The campaign is designed to demobilise diaspora voters – encouraging them to stay home – and to manipulate those who do vote into supporting a fake pro-EU force."
Moldova’s diaspora overwhelmingly supported Sandu in last year’s presidential vote, which was also dogged by accusations of Russian meddling, including a cash-for-votes scheme and staged protests abroad.
Pro-Russian governor imprisoned
In a move that has stirred controversy both at home and abroad this week, a Moldovan court sentenced pro-Russian regional governor Evghenia Gutul to seven years imprisonment for illegal party financing – a ruling the Kremlin quickly condemned as "politically motivated".
Gutul, the outspoken governor of the autonomous Gagauzia region in southern Moldova, was found guilty on Tuesday of channelling illicit funds to the now-banned Shor party, once led by fugitive businessman Ilan Shor.
Prosecutors say she helped transport undeclared money from Russia to Moldova between 2019 and 2022, while serving as the party’s secretary.
Gutul has denied the charges, calling the ruling a "political reprisal" and accusing the government of trying to silence opposition voices ahead of September’s election. Her lawyer pledged to appeal the verdict, branding the trial "a public execution".
The sentencing sparked protests in the Moldovan capital, with dozens of Gutul’s supporters chanting "Shame!" and accusing Sandu of stifling dissent.
Gutul, 38, has frequently travelled to Moscow and maintains close ties to Russian officials – even appealing directly to Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this year after she was briefly detained at the capital’s airport.
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'Strategy of chaos'
Experts say the Kremlin’s interference has aims far beyond the coming elections. Speaking to RFI, Christine Dugoin-Clément, a researcher at IAE Paris-Sorbonne, described Moscow’s approach as a calculated "strategy of chaos".
"Russian operations exploit the weaknesses of democracies and the echo chamber of social media to destabilise, confuse and polarise," she said. "It’s not just about winning elections – it’s about undermining democratic processes over the long term."
At the centre of the alleged interference is the Social Design Agency (SDA), a Kremlin-linked firm whose internal workings were exposed in a major data leak.
The SDA has been implicated in several influence operations, including "Doppelgänger" – an effort to impersonate reputable European media outlets to spread disinformation.
“SDA evolved from a small provincial consultancy into a key service provider for the Kremlin’s digital interference operations,” said Kevin Limonier, an expert in Russian cyberspace.
Speaking to RFI, Limonier said: "The leak shows how deeply integrated these firms are into Moscow’s political warfare strategies, but also how vulnerable they can be to exposure."
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Over recent months, Moldovan police have arrested dozens of paid demonstrators and shut down scores of pro-Russian Telegram channels – which Sandu has criticised for ignoring reports of electoral manipulation.
Police have also released videos warning voters about apps such as Taito, allegedly used to facilitate vote buying. Moldovan media outlet NewsMaker reported earlier this week that police alerted the public to a scheme involving illegal financing and paying for votes, allegedly coordinated from Russia via the Taito app, which runs on the Telegram platform.
Moldova's General Police Inspectorate has also advised citizens to avoid using the app and to refrain from sharing any personal information.
AI-generated content too is playing a role, with Moldova becoming a testing ground for new forms of hybrid warfare – from synthetic media to cyber sabotage and even Russian missile overflights designed to stoke fear and instability.
Synthetic media is content generated or manipulated by AI to appear convincingly real. This includes fabricated news videos, deepfake social media profiles, and digitally altered images that mimic credible outlets or public figures to spread false narratives.
Authorities have flagged examples of AI-generated reports designed to look like European media outlets, pushing anti-EU disinformation to confuse voters and suppress turnout, particularly among the diaspora.
At the same time, Russia continues to deploy intimidation tactics in the physical realm. On Thursday, several Russian cruise missiles reportedly flew through Moldova’s airspace en route to targets in Ukraine – a violation that has become symbolic of the Kremlin’s disregard for Moldova’s sovereignty. Though no physical damage was done, officials warned that the incursions were intended to create a climate of fear and uncertainty ahead of the elections.
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Wider European concern
There are fears too that what happens in Moldova won’t stay in Moldova. "This election is no longer just about our country," said Secrieru. "It’s a European election by proxy."
The EUvsDisinfo project – the EU’s counter-disinformation arm – has labelled Russia’s campaign as a "coordinated effort" to discredit Sandu, manipulate public discourse and weaken Moldova’s democratic resilience.
The July arrest of fugitive oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc in Athens has added another twist to the tale.
Suspected of working with Kremlin power broker Dmitry Kozak – the architect of a 2003 federalisation plan that would have split Moldova – Plahotniuc is alleged to be plotting a return to power by reactivating his old political networks.
The former lawmaker is one of the chief suspects in Moldova's "theft of the century" – the disappearance in 2014 of $1 billion from the Moldovan banking system, the equivalent at the time of 12 percent of the country's GDP.
For now, the PAS government is hoping that transparency, security and international support will counter the Kremlin’s plans. But with disinformation swirling and digital attacks intensifying, the road to 28 September promises to be anything but smooth.
