Every few years the financial world rediscovers private equity and declares it the secret club where all the real money is made.
It is a compelling narrative.
The smartest firms buy small companies, load them with debt, cut costs, improve operations, and sell them later for a fortune.
Limited partners write enormous checks for the right to participate.
Consultants write glowing white papers about the genius of the buyout model.
And individual investors walk away thinking these returns are forever out of reach unless they have seven figures to commit and a handshake from a managing director.
The problem is that none of this is true. Private equity is not magic. It never has been.
When you boil private equity down to its bones you end up with the same ingredients every time.
The best deals are small.
The best deals are cheap.
The best deals are carrying a meaningful amount of debt.
The combination of small size, low valuation, and leverage drives almost all of the final return.
They also found that the best performing companies share a few critical traits.
They are paying down debt. They are improving asset turnover. They have strong gross profitability relative to their asset base.
All of this is exactly what we look for in deep value investing. Cash flow that actually reduces debt.
Operations that are finally becoming more efficient.
Profitability that can support a lower leverage level down the road.
When those conditions are in place equity holders enjoy the full benefit of rising free cash flow, falling interest expense, and shrinking leverage ratios.
Private equity likes to dress this up as operational improvement or strategic transformation.
It is really just math.
When debt falls faster than enterprise value changes, equity value goes up.
That is the entire game.
One of the biggest revelations from the private equity replication research is that buyout-style returns are not a mystery. They come from a very specific recipe that anyone can understand. You buy smaller companies when they are cheap on an enterprise value basis. You embrace leverage when it exists already or when the balance sheet structure produces the same economic effect.
You focus on businesses with improving fundamentals and rising free cash flow.
You hold them through the deleveraging cycle and let the math work in your favor.
This is what private equity firms have been doing for decades. They target small companies with modest profitability, real cash flow, and the capacity for improvement. They buy them at low EBITDA multiples.
They let the combination of operating leverage and financial deleveraging drive equity returns.
Individual investors can do the same thing in the public markets. We can look for companies with the same traits and build a portfolio that behaves just like a basket of buyout deals. The stocks do not need to be glamorous.
They do not need to be widely followed. They only need to fit the profile.
The five companies below all share the defining characteristics of a private equity replication candidate. They are smaller businesses. They operate in industries where cash flow swings can be dramatic. Their valuations sit at levels where enterprise value already prices in pessimism. Their balance sheets or fixed cost structures create the leverage that powers the buyout math. And each one is positioned so that improvement in margins, utilization, or revenue would flow rapidly into higher equity value.
Sun Country Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:SNCY)
Sun Country is a textbook example of what a private equity buyer loves. It is a smaller airline with a tight focus on leisure passengers, charter services, and cargo flying. The business operates inside one of the most cyclically leveraged industries on the planet. Fixed costs dominate the cost structure. Debt and lease obligations amplify any improvement in revenue per available seat mile or fleet utilization. When things deteriorate the equity takes the hit. When things improve the equity moves far faster than the fundamentals.
SNCY often trades at modest EBITDA multiples, and the enterprise value is shaped heavily by lease and debt dynamics. This is pure private equity territory. If traffic strengthens or capacity constraints lift margins the cash flow hits the equity account with force. Small cap. Operational leverage. Financial leverage. A path to higher free cash flow. It is the profile in its purest form.
Heritage Insurance Holdings (NYSE:HRTG)
Insurance companies are not usually the first thing that comes to mind when people think about buyouts, but Heritage fits the model perfectly. It is a smaller regional property and casualty insurer operating in a niche market. The company has shown improvement in underwriting performance with better combined ratios in recent quarters. When a P and C insurer gets its risk selection right and pulls its loss ratios down, the effect on earnings and book value can be dramatic.
Heritage is also a company where enterprise value and tangible capital structure really matter. Reserve adjustments, reinsurance costs, and interest expenses shape the cash flow profile
When these metrics improve, leverage falls, free cash flow rises, and equity value expands. For a public investor trying to replicate buyout mechanics, this is exactly the sort of specialty insurer you want to find. Small, improving operations, and still priced as if the worst outcomes remain permanent.
Malibu Boats (NASDAQ:MBUU)
Malibu Boats sits in the center of a cyclical consumer manufacturing niche. Boat manufacturers experience wide swings in demand because they sell a discretionary product with meaningful ticket size. That creates volatility. It also creates opportunity.
When you buy a business like this at the low end of the cycle and at a cheap valuation, every improvement in unit volume and every turn in margins rolls directly into higher free cash flow.
Malibu has real scale within its segment. It earns solid gross margins even during slower periods. When it trades at compressed EBITDA multiples, the business looks exactly like the sort of industrial manufacturer that private equity firms buy again and again.
A smaller company with brand value, operating leverage, and balance sheet dynamics that reward patient investors. When conditions stabilize and the company starts generating excess cash, you get the very same deleveraging tailwind that buyout funds chase privately.
Core Molding Technologies (AMEX:CMT)
Core Molding Technologies is the kind of small industrial that rarely gets attention from Wall Street analysts but draws the eye of private equity professionals instantly. It produces molded plastic and composite components for heavy truck and industrial markets.
These businesses have high fixed costs and meaningful capital intensity. When end markets soften, the downside can be painful. When volumes recover, the operational leverage is enormous.
CMT is small enough to be mispriced. It often trades at low enterprise value multiples because the market hates uncertainty in cyclical manufacturing. Yet that manufacturing base is exactly what private equity wants. The company has the ability to drive huge improvements in asset turnover and margins as volumes return.
This is classic buyout DNA. Cheap. Ugly. Operationally levered. Positioned for rapid value creation if the cycle cooperates.
John Wiley and Sons (NYSE:WLY)
Wiley is the outlier in this group, but an important one. It is a mature content and publishing business sitting at a transition point. The company owns respected brands, valuable academic relationships, and recurring revenue from subscriptions and digital assets.
The market has been skeptical of every legacy publisher, and valuations have compressed across the industry. For a private equity investor, that skepticism becomes opportunity.
Wiley has meaningful room for operational improvements. Cost reductions, asset sales, digital expansion, and balance sheet optimization are all tools that buyout firms would deploy aggressively. The company already carries enough leverage and legacy cost infrastructure to create the same economic sensitivity to improvement that you find in classic buyout targets.
When a business like Wiley stabilizes cash flow and brings structure to its operating model, the equity responds quickly. That is what makes it a compelling replication candidate. It may not be industrial or cyclical, but it is a real business in transition with a valuation and operating structure that reward disciplined deep value investors.
The Bottom Line
All five companies share the traits that private equity relies on. They are smaller firms with real, tangible businesses. They operate with some mix of financial or operating leverage. They trade at valuations that price in fear or fatigue. They offer clear paths to improvement.
And if you own them patiently while the businesses normalize or recover, the returns can mirror the same deleveraging engine that powers buyout funds.
The beauty of the public market replication strategy is that it gives investors access to private equity style opportunities without the fees, without the lockups, and without the marketing story.
You build a portfolio of small, cheap companies with leverage and improving fundamentals. You let the math of enterprise value and free cash flow work. You harvest the returns that institutions chase privately.
SNCY, HRTG, MBUU, CMT, and WLY each deserve a place on the watchlist for anyone building a public market private equity replication portfolio. They are imperfect. They are unloved. They are volatile. That is why they work.
