The UN’s climate chief has declared Australia’s 2035 emissions target will define the country’s future, and urged the Albanese government to not pick a “bog-standard” number but to “go for what’s smart by going big”.
Speaking in Sydney on Monday, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change executive secretary, Simon Stiell, cast the government’s decision on the target – due by September – as the country’s “one shot” to build an “on-ramp to the Asian clean tech boom”, create hundreds of thousands of jobs and ensure the country’s economic security and regional influence.
The government is being heavily lobbied by industry and climate-focused organisations as it waits on advice about the 2035 target from the Climate Change Authority, a government agency led by chair Matt Kean, a former NSW Liberal treasurer and energy minister.
Stiell, a former minister in the Grenadian government, did not say what the target should be, but said the decision was more than “just the next policy milestone”. He said climate policy debates could be “complex and contentious”, but urged the country to not “settle for what’s easy”.
“If those debates deliver an ambitious, all-economy plan with public backing and political backbone then, whatever the naysayers might say, every hard-fought inch will be worth it,” he said at an event hosted by the Smart Energy Council, a clean energy industry organisation.
“Bog standard is beneath you … Go for what will build lasting wealth and national security. Go for what will change the game and stand the test of time.”
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The Climate Change Authority last year said a preliminary assessment of scientific, economic, technological and social evidence suggested a target of cutting national emissions by at least 65% and up to 75% by 2035 compared with 2005 levels would be ambitious but achievable.
Some organisations, including the Climate Council, the Australian Council of Social Service and the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering, argue Australia should be aiming to reach net zero emissions by 2035 if it is to play its part in keeping global heating as close to 1.5C as possible – a goal enshrined in the legally binding 2015 Paris agreement.
Some business groups, including mining company Fortescue, have locked behind a campaign for a minimum 75% reduction target. They face opposition from other industry lobbyists that suggest the government should set a target that would do little more than the legislated 2030 goal of a 43% cut.
The Coalition is considering whether it will go further and abandon its support for reaching net zero emissions by 2050. The former Nationals leader, Barnaby Joyce, has tabled a private member’s bill that would abolish nearly all of the country’s climate policies and commitments, including the net zero target.
Stiell said he believed Australians knew unchecked climate change was “an economic wrecking ball”, and that climate disasters were “already costing Australian homeowners $4bn a year – and that figure is only going one way”. He cited analysis that found the country could lose $6.8tn in GDP by 2050, and living standards could fall by more than $7,000 per person a year.
But he said the “global clean energy race” was under way, with trillions of dollars at stake, and with China and India investing in renewables at a level that was “off the charts”. He said an ambitious target in Australia could “anchor future industries – green hydrogen, clean metals, critical minerals – in policies that give investors confidence, give communities certainty [and] create good jobs paying good wages”.
He said it would send a message “so clear the world can’t miss it – this country is open for clean investment, trade and long-term partnerships”.
Stiell is in Australia as part of a global trip as governments weigh new commitments for 2035 before the Cop30 climate conference in Brazil in November. He arrived in Sydney after visiting Indonesia and Turkey. Turkey is vying with Australia and the Pacific to host next year’s Cop31 summit.
A decision will need to be made by Cop30, at the latest. It had been expected last year, but the UN operates a consensus process and Turkey has remained in the race despite most members of the deciding group of Western Europe and Other States having declared their support for the Australia-Pacific bid.
Stiell was due to visit Canberra on Tuesday for meetings, including with the climate change and energy minister, Chris Bowen.
He will be joined in the capital by the prime minister of the low-lying Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu, Feleti Teo, who is speaking at the Australian National University and meeting with the prime minister, Anthony Albanese.
More than 80% of Tuvalu’s population of about 11,000 have entered a ballot for an Australian permanent residency visa, established as part of a climate-related treaty between the two countries. Under the deal, 280 places will be offered to Tuvalu citizens in the first year.
