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Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA), headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois, is a specialty beauty retailer offering a wide range of branded and private label beauty products. With a market cap of $22.4 billion, the company offers cosmetics, fragrance, skin, and hair care products, as well as salon services.
Shares of this beauty giant have underperformed the broader market over the past year. ULTA has gained 25.5% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 27.9%. In 2026, ULTA stock is down 14.9%, compared to the SPX’s 9.2% rise on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, ULTA’s outperformance is apparent compared to State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 9.3% over the past year. However, the ETF’s 3.2% dip on a YTD basis outshine the stock’s double-digit losses over the same time frame.
Ulta’s underperformance was driven by softer guidance and investor concerns over rising costs, tougher competition, and a more cautious consumer, which triggered a sharp selloff that erased earlier gains. Its EPS fell to $8.01 from $8.46 a year ago, missing estimates, while its operating margin contracted to 12.2% from 14.8% on higher ad spend, corporate investments, and incentive compensation.
For fiscal 2026, ending in January 2027, analysts expect ULTA’s EPS to grow 11% to $28.47 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is impressive. It beat the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters.
Among the 25 analysts covering ULTA stock, the consensus is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on 18 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” and six “Holds.”
This configuration is more bullish than a month ago, with a “Moderate Buy” rating overall, consisting 17 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”
On May 21, UBS analyst Michael Lasser maintained a “Buy” rating on ULTA and set a price target of $810, the Street-high price target, implying a potential upside of 57.3% from current levels.
The mean price target of $688.64 represents a 33.7% premium to ULTA’s current price levels.
