European nations will act to impose “dramatic sanctions” on Iran in the coming weeks if it does not end the uncertainty about its nuclear programme, including by allowing the return of UN inspectors, the UK foreign secretary, David Lammy, has warned.
He also told the Commons that Iran could not assume Israel would not strike its nuclear sites again.
His tough warning was echoed by the French foreign ministry, which is working closely with the UK in an attempt to persuade Iran to end its new ambiguity about its nuclear intentions and re-engage in talks with the US.
Iran is maintaining a fragile ceasefire with the US and Israel but the risk exists of the crisis flaring up into further warfare unless a diplomatic agreement is found soon.
The UK, France and Germany – the E3 – signed the original nuclear deal with Iran in 2015 and according to its terms can impose “snapback” UN sanctions without the risk of a security council veto, so long as they act by its expiry in October. Alternatively, they could table a UN resolution to delay the snapback by some months if Iran shows a willingness to negotiate.
The three countries are also using their power to reimpose UN sanctions as a lever to persuade the US to join the talks with the Iranians, but have so far had no success. Iran has said it will restart talks with the US only if there is a guarantee that Israel will not attack Iran while the talks are under way.
Speaking to the UK parliament’s foreign affairs select committee on Tuesday, Lammy said: “Iran faces even more pressure in the coming weeks because the E3 can snap back on our sanctions, and it’s not just our sanctions, it’s actually a UN mechanism that would impose dramatic sanctions on Iran across nearly every single front in its economy.
“So they have a choice to make. It’s a choice for them to make. I’m very clear about the choice they should make, but I’m also clear that the UK has a decision to make that could lead to far greater pain for the Iranian regime unless they get serious about the international desire to see them step back from their nuclear ambitions.”
The reinstated sanctions would include cargo inspections on Iranian shipments, reinstated arms embargos and restrictions on missile-related technologies.
“Iran’s decision to suspend cooperation [with the UN nuclear inspectorate] will only lead to greater uncertainty about their nuclear intentions,” Lammy warned, adding that such a step would also be in stark violation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT).
Withholding a judgment on Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, Lammy said the detailed intelligence assessment of the attacks had not been completed but that, regardless of the degrading effect on Iran’s uranium stockpiles and centrifuges, Iran would retain its knowledge of how to build a nuclear weapon – making it necessary for the west to reach some diplomatic agreement.
With some inside Iran near-triumphant because the Israelis did not dislodge the government, Lammy urged Iran to make a sober assessment of its true strategic weakness. “Iran has lost its air defences and I suspect the Israelis, monitoring Iran very closely, are free to act again, if they think they can further degrade Iran’s nuclear capability,” he said. He added that he had not seen either Russia or China rushing to Iran’s defence.
Iran’s leadership, faced by domestic pressure not to re-engage with the US or Israel, has not ruled out further talks with the US, but plans for negotiations to restart this week in Oslo this week have not materialised.
At the weekend, the US special envoy, Steve Witkoff , said again the US would require Iran to end its enrichment of uranium, a red line for Iran.
