UK households could face another sharp rise in energy bills this summer as tensions in the Middle East continue affecting global gas and oil markets. Market forecasts have warned that disruption linked to tensions involving Iran and the United States could keep wholesale prices elevated ahead of winter.
Ofgem is expected to announce its latest energy price cap for England, Scotland and Wales this week, setting the maximum rates suppliers can charge households from July. Current industry forecasts from Cornwall Insight suggest the average annual dual-fuel bill could rise by around £209, taking typical yearly costs from £1,641 to about £1,850.
The expected increase has renewed pressure on ministers to offer more support for households already struggling with living costs. Campaigners and energy groups have warned that continued instability in the Middle East could leave families facing higher bills well into the colder months later this year.
Energy Bills Forecast To Rise From July
According to The Guardian, the energy price cap is expected to rise by nearly 13 per cent from July following volatility in wholesale gas markets earlier this year.
Wholesale prices rose sharply after conflict involving Iran increased uncertainty in global energy markets and raised concerns about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil and gas transit corridors.
Although the UK imports relatively small amounts of fuel directly from the region, British energy prices remain heavily influenced by international wholesale gas markets. Even if tensions ease in the coming months, household bills may remain above pre-crisis levels heading into winter, when energy demand typically increases.
Average UK household energy bill expected to rise by £209, 13%, to £1,850.
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Under Ofgem's current cap covering April to June 2026, a typical household paying by direct debit faces annual energy costs of around £1,641. The regulator said falling wholesale prices and changes to government environmental scheme funding contributed to lower bills earlier this year before recent market instability pushed prices back upwards.
Government Faces Calls For More Support
The expected rise in bills has triggered renewed criticism from anti-poverty campaigners and consumer groups, who argue households are already under pressure from rising food, housing and transport costs.
Rachel Reeves recently told MPs that Treasury officials were preparing contingency plans in case energy prices rise further later this year. However, the chancellor has so far stopped short of announcing direct financial support for household energy bills.
Instead, the government recently announced temporary measures including reduced VAT on some attractions and children's meals during the summer period.
We are breaking the link between gas prices and electricity prices, so you don’t pay the bill for global energy spikes.
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We are building a more resilient Britain - putting more money in your pocket and protecting households from future global shocks.
Simon Francis of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition said many households could face growing anxiety over future energy payments, particularly customers paying by direct debit who may see monthly payments adjusted before winter arrives.
A government spokesperson said ministers recognised concerns surrounding the impact of Middle East tensions on household energy costs and argued that reducing long-term reliance on fossil fuels remained a priority.
Concerns Grow Over Long-Term Energy Costs
The latest forecasts have also renewed wider concerns about the UK's long-term exposure to global energy market shocks. Britain's limited gas storage capacity has also raised concerns about the country's exposure to sudden price increases during periods of international instability.
Forecasts suggest electricity prices could rise to 26.03p per kilowatt hour from July, while gas prices may increase to 7.16p/kWh, although final household bills will still depend on individual usage levels.
Ofgem is expected to formally confirm the new energy price cap later this week, with millions of households across Great Britain waiting to see how sharply bills could rise before winter.
