UK farmers lost £1.19 billion in income from arable crops last year following the extreme wet and stormy weather, official figures show.
The Environment Department’s (Defra) farmer income figures, released on Thursday, showed that while the overall UK farm income was up from £6.1 billion to £7.7 billion between 2023 and 2024, income from the main arable crops fell by £1.19 million.
This was driven by significant drop from barley, wheat, barley and oilseed rape, albeit slightly offset by gains from potatoes, according to an analysis of the figures by the the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think tank.
The falling incomes can be attributed to the third-worst harvest on record last year, caused by wet weather in key planting periods, as well as the ongoing fall in cereal and oilseed prices following the peaks of 2022.
It comes amid warnings that farmers could be facing another terrible harvest this year following the hottest spring on record and the driest conditions in decades.
The ECIU said climate change is already having a “devastating” impact on farmers, food security and shopping bills, and the recent extremes of heat will continue to have a negative impact on harvests.
Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said: “Farmers are now counting the costs of climate change, with over a billion pounds knocked off arable farm incomes following the extreme wet winter that we saw in 2024.
“This lost income hits the sector just as the same farmers are having to contend with a record-breaking warm and dry spring, that is likely to hit this year’s harvest too.
“Increasingly extreme weather is testing the financial resilience of farming to breaking point and jeopardising our food security, just as reports suggest that the spending review next week may reduce the funding available for the government’s new green farming schemes.”
Farmers and environmentalists have warned that cutting sustainable farming funding in the spending review next week would hit efforts to restore nature, make farming resilient to climate shocks, and support rural communities.
Martin Lines, chief executive of the Nature Friendly Farming Network, said this year’s arable harvest was “on a knife edge” and highlighted the need for funding to build resilience.
Nature-friendly farming measures such as ensuring healthy soils and boosting natural predators of crop pests can help make agriculture more resilient to climate extremes, experts say.
Mr Lines, who farms in Cambridgeshire, said: “Months of dry weather have left my crops stressed, with their yield potential now capped even if we get a good bit of rain.
“This is what farming in a changing climate looks like.
“It’s wreaking havoc with my ability to plan and many farmers are now facing yet more financial losses this harvest, just as support for nature-friendly farming is being called into question.
“Nature-friendly farming is the backbone of rural resilience. Cutting funding now won’t save money; it will cost us all in the long run,” he warned.
The UK has experienced its hottest spring in records dating back to the 19th century, and its driest in more than 50 years with rainfall at just 40% of average levels.
England suffered the driest three months from March to May in more than 100 years, Met Office figures show.
Comment on the UK's warmest and sunniest spring on record:
— ECIU (@ECIU_UK) June 4, 2025
"The rate at which climate records are falling is relentless...Farmers now desperately need more and better support to be able to adapt to these extremes."https://t.co/pCPz8rMjuD
The north-west of England is already in drought, and the Environment Agency has warned of the risk of more widespread drought without sustained rainfall.
ECIU analysis estimates the production of the main arable crops – wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape – could once again be near all-time lows.
The assessment draws on the most recent crop development survey from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), which identified a major decline in crop conditions due to the dry spring, reducing yield potential despite recent rainfall.
It looks at three scenarios, reflecting what might happen with rainfall in the coming weeks.
If crop condition is maintained at current levels, yields would be in line with last year, leading to a worse harvest than 2024, due to fewer acres of oilseed rape and spring barley planted outweighing an increase in wheat, and making 2025 the second-worst harvest in records dating back to the 1980s.
If rain helps crop conditions improve and yields recover to the 10-year average, the UK harvest would be the seventh-worst on record, the ECIU estimates.
And if crop condition continues to decline and yields are equivalent to 2020 – the worst harvest so far since the detailed records began in 1984 – this year could become the worst harvest on record.
Mr Lancaster said: “Although it’s too early to tell what the true impact will be of this record-breaking dry spring, we know enough to conclude that it will have had a negative impact.”
He said scientists were clear that warmer springs were a feature of climate change, making the impact of a dry spring more severe, while extreme wet winters were also being fuelled by rising global temperatures.
“In this volatile context, the outcome of the spending review next week will be a crucial moment for farming in this country, and whether the Government realises what’s at stake for UK farming and food security in a rapidly changing climate,” Mr Lancaster said.
Farming minister Daniel Zeichner said: “Farming incomes are on the rise – credit to the hard work of our farmers keeping the country fed and protecting the long-term food security our country needs.
“We’re determined to build on this progress – backing farmers to meet future challenges, strengthen food security, and support thriving rural communities.
“That’s why we’re investing £5 billion – the largest-ever budget for sustainable food production – and have appointed Baroness Minette Batters to recommend reforms that put more money back in farmers’ pockets, as part of our plan for change.”
