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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Boris Johnson says UK wants to work with China, though it poses 'great challenges for an open society' – as it happened

Afternoon summary

  • Robert Buckland, the justice secretary, has defended controversial plans in the police, crime, sentencing and courts bill that would make it an offence to cause “serious annoyance”. Asked about the measure, he told MPs during justice questions:

The particular provisions on protest are a reflection of the Law Commission’s report of 2015 and indeed a reflection of the common law in England and Wales on public nuisance, which refers to - amongst other things - annoyance, serious annoyance and other terms which are well known to law.

The maximum penalty in common law for public nuisance was life imprisonment and that’s being reduced to 10 years. I really frankly do not see what the fuss is about, I rather think it is a confection designed to assist an Opposition in difficulty.

There is a detailed guide to these proposals in a Commons briefing paper here (pdf). MPs are debating the bill now, and will vote on giving it a second reading at 7pm.

  • The Northern Ireland executive has announced the easing of some Covid restrictions from April. These are from the BBC’s Darren Marshall.

That’s all from me for today. But our coronavirus coverage continues on our global live blog. It’s here.

Surge testing is being deployed in the West Midlands after cases of the South African Covid-19 variant were found, PA Media reports. PA says:

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) said additional testing was being rolled out in the DY4 postcode of Sandwell to help monitor and suppress the virus.

Positive cases will be sequenced for genomic data to help increase understanding of variants and their spread within these areas.

People living within the targeted area are strongly encouraged to take a Covid-19 test when offered, whether they are showing symptoms or not, the DHSC said.

In the Commons MPs are on the second day of the second reading debate for the police, crime, sentencing and courts bill. My colleague Peter Walker has been watching.

Ian Dunt from Politics.co.uk is live tweeting the whole thing. His Twitter thread starts here.

My colleague Patrick Wintour has filed a good analysis of the security and defence review. Here’s an extract.

The departure point for the review is not meant to be Brexit. It is the belief that the preservation of the post-cold war, rules-based international system, the system Clement Attlee ... constructed after 1945, is no longer enough. “The international order is more fragmented, characterised by intensifying competition between states over interests, norms and values. A defence of the status quo is no longer sufficient for the decade ahead,” it says.

And here is the full article.

The full reopening of schools in England last week appears to have gone ahead with few hitches, as the Department for Education reports that between 96% to 94% of primary school pupils returned to their classrooms, in line with attendance rates in normal times.

In secondary schools, where some schools have had to stagger the return of pupils because of the need for mass Covid testing, attendance has risen from 31% on 8 March to 89% yesterday.

The DfE said around 1% of England’s more than 7 million state school pupils were absent on 11 March for Covid-related reasons, including 5,000 pupils with a confirmed Covid case and, 7,000 with a suspected case.

A further 33,000 pupils were self-isolating due to potential contact with a case of coronavirus at school, while 31,000 were self-isolating due to contact outside school.

Some 2,000 pupils were unable to attend school because it was closed due to Covid-19 reasons.

Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said secondary schools had put in “a Herculean effort” to provide on-site Covid testing for pupils since reopening, with”very little help or support” from the government. He went on:

However, we must sound a note of caution over what attendance levels will look like for what remains of this term, because we are picking up reports of positive Covid cases and close contacts having to be sent home to self-isolate. It will continue to be bumpy, and we are not out of the woods yet.

Updated

The UK has recorded 110 more Covid deaths and 5,294 new cases, according to the latest update on the government’s dashboard.

New cases are starting to plateau, although that is not as worrying as it sounds because the number of testing being carried out is up 42.2% week on week, meaning that, as a proportion of tests carried out, positive results are still falling.

But deaths are still falling sharply, down 32.8% week on week. A week ago today 231 deaths were recorded.

Covid dashboard
Covid dashboard. Photograph: Gov.UK

Updated

These are from the Times’ Patrick Maguire on the forthcoming Hartlepool byelection. (See 12.05pm.)

And these are from the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush.

In his Sky News interview Tobias Ellwood, the Conservative chair of the Commons defence committee, said the security and defence review said that the UK could use nuclear weapons to respond to an attack with chemical or biological weapons. That was a “big change” in policy, he said.

He was referring to this passage on page 77 of the document (pdf).

The UK will not use, or threaten to use, nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear weapon state party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons 1968 (NPT). This assurance does not apply to any state in material breach of those non-proliferation obligations. However, we reserve the right to review this assurance if the future threat of weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical and biological capabilities, or emerging technologies that could have a comparable impact, makes it necessary.

Here is the Scottish government’s summary of the latest plans for easing lockdown restrictions in Scotland. And here is a graphic summarising what it says.

The three Tory backbench factions disappointed by PM's security and defence review

Boris Johnson was elected Conservative leader because of his views on Brexit, and he won a big election victory on this issue, and so it is tempting to assume that, although his MPs might query his decisions on matters like lockdown policy, on foreign policy he ought to have them solidly behind him.

But he doesn’t particularly. What his statement to the Commons showed is that backbench support for the integrated review was rather wobbly, with critics divided into three camps.

The most prominent were the China hawks, of whom one of the most prominent, Tobias Ellwood, the chair of the Commons defence committee, has used an interview with Sky News to elaborate on the complaint he made in the chamber.

Ellwood told MPs that, on China, he was hoping the review would mark a Fulton, Missouri moment. Explaining what he meant, he told Sky:

That was the moment when Churchill actually read out to the world the dangers of the Soviet Union, saying that an iron curtain had been created across Europe.

And I was hoping we’d get the same from this prime minister, to say that China is a geopolitical and geo-strategic, long-term threat. We didn’t get that today.

Ellwood said, on China at least, he would like Johnson to be more Trumpian.

Ultimately I believe we need to stand up to China.

If Donald Trump achieved anything, it was to encourage us all to recalibrate our views on a country that is using its economic might to pursue its own agenda.

Tobias Ellwood
Tobias Ellwood. Photograph: Sky News

Julian Lewis, the Conservative chair of the intelligence and security committee, was even more critical in the chamber. Citing extracts from the report describing China as an “important partner” and calling for “deeper trade links”, he said:

Does not that unfortunately demonstrate that the grasping naivety of the Cameron-Osborne years still lingers on in some departments of state?

Lewis is a prominent Brexiter and Jeremy Hunt, a former foreign secretary and one of the most senior remain figures left on the Tory benches, also implies the review was too soft on China. (See 2.24pm.)

Johnson also faced criticism from the aid champions. The former international development secretary Andrew Mitchell (see 1.17pm), Pauline Latham (see 1.39pm) and Sir Roger Gale (see 1.47pm) all made notable interventions on the importance of the 0.7% target (for aid spending as a proportion of national wealth). “I am very saddened to hear that we are going to be balancing the books on the backs of the poor,” said Latham.

Finally, Johnson also came under pressure from army enthusiasts, alarmed by reports that the size of the army will be cut by around 10,000. The defence statement is coming next week, but Richard Drax asked Johnson for an assurance “that he will expand the army to 100,000 as our chief ally the US has recommended rather than see it wither on the vine to 72,000”. Johnson claimed that, taking into account the reserves, the size of the army would remain over 100,000 but that was mainly a way of dodging the question.

Updated

No 10 rejects claim warhead plan in breach of nuclear non-proliferation treaty

At the No 10 lobby briefing Downing Street dismissed claims made by the Lib Dems (see 3pm) and others that increasing the number of warheads in the UK stockpile would be a breach of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The PM’s spokesman said:

The nuclear non-proliferation treaty doesn’t require us to reduce the number of warheads. All of our actions are consistent with our nuclear non-proliferation treaty obligations.

In recent years we have seen nuclear-armed states ignore international norms. It remains the case that we believe the best way to protect ourselves and our Nato allies is to ensure that we continue to have a credible independent nuclear deterrent.

The 260 figure is a ceiling, not a target. We will continue to keep this under review in the light of the international security environment and make adjustments as appropriate.

Opposition parties condemn integrated security and defence review

Here is a round-up of some response from the opposition parties to the integrated review of defence, security and foreign policy.

From Labour’s Lisa Nandy, the shadow foreign secretary

The government says Russia is the No 1 threat to our security but it has refused to implement any of the recommendations of the Russia report, damaged relations with our Nato partners in Europe and its mismanagement of the defence budget has undermined the foundations of our defences.

In a world where battlefields no longer have boundaries and we face the twin threats of state-based warfare and hybrid attacks, this lost decade has left our defences down in our own backyard.

There is a yawning chasm between the government’s words and its actions. It wants to uphold international law but repeatedly breaks it. It lauds the importance of conflict resolution and counter-terrorism while cutting those programmes in Syria and Iraq. It preaches peace in Yemen but sells arms to Saudi. It wants to build alliances but antagonises our allies. It wants to lead on climate change but has no plan for net zero.

From the SNP’s Humza Yousaf, the Scottish government’s justice secretary:

One thing is absolutely clear - the UK government’s plans to expand the stockpile of nuclear weapons are utterly unacceptable to the Scottish government. Nuclear weapons are morally, strategically and economically wrong. Our opposition to Trident remains unequivocal.

Scotland is home to one of the largest concentrations of nuclear weapons anywhere in the world, despite consistent and clear opposition from across civic Scotland and a clear majority of our elected politicians.

From Jamie Stone, the Lib Dem defence spokesperson

The government’s integrated review is not strategic, not integrated, and not a proper review. Rather, it is full of retreat and broken promises.

Our armed forces are being cut back and the defence budget is in a mess.

Proposals to increase the number of Trident warheads should not be taken forward. Such a policy would be a breach of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Increasing our nuclear arsenal now will not strengthen our defence. The world faces many threats to peace and stability. We should not add to those threats by encouraging a return to the nuclear arms race.

From Jonathan Bartley, the Green party’s co-leader

This review is based on meaningless rhetoric about Global Britain and a desire to boost the sale of arms by British companies. It will do nothing to increase the security of British people. The posturing about providing global leadership on cooperation and democracy will convince nobody, especially coming from a government that is in an ongoing dispute with its closest neighbours and has shamelessly broken treaty obligations entered into less than a year ago.

Updated

Sturgeon says Scotland's stay-at-home order to be lifted on 2 April

Scotland will lift its coronavirus stay-at-home order on 2 April and replace it with guidance to stay local for no more than three weeks, Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, has told the Scottish parliament.

This is from the BBC’s Glen Campbell.

Sturgeon is still speaking, and I will post a full summary of the new timetable when she has finished.

In his question to Boris Johnson in the Commons earlier, as well as commenting on aid spending (see 1.24pm), Jeremy Hunt, the Conservative former foreign secretary, also expressed concern that the review was too soft on China. He said:

I am worried about designating China simply as a systemic challenge given the terrible events in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, so will [the PM] keep this under review?

It is often assumed that members of the armed forces are always gung-ho for spending on nuclear weapons. But often they’re not. On the World at One Lord Dannatt, the former head of the army, suggested that money spend on expanding the nuclear weapons stockpile could be better deployed elsewhere. He said:

The significant issue is what is the incremental cost of that increase from 180 to 260 weapons, and what is the opportunity cost against further developments to some of our conventional capabilities?

We may well find that there are significant cuts to our conventional capabilities. The opportunity cost is what could be done with that money that’s gone on increased nuclear weapons, and where else could it have gone in our defence budget.

This is from my colleague Patrick Wintour, the Guardian’s diplomatic editor, on Johnson’s statement to MPs about the integrated review.

No 10 refuses to deny PM said about Covid in early days 'best thing would be to ignore it'

The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished. There were questions about Laura Kuenssberg’s long read about what happened behind the scenes in government in the first year of the pandemic (see 10.45am), and the spokespeople repeatedly refused to deny that, at one point in the very early days, when the virus had just been confirmed in the UK, Boris Johnson was heard saying: “The best thing would be to ignore it.” We were told that Johnson’s comments at the start of the pandemic were a matter of record.

This is what Kuenssberg wrote about this anecdote.

Ministers and officials had already been meeting to discuss the virus in China - but it felt thousands of miles away. There was a “lack of concern and energy,” one source tells me. “The general view was it is just hysteria. It was just like a flu.”

The prime minister was even heard to say: “The best thing would be to ignore it.” And he repeatedly warned, several sources tell me, that an overreaction could do more harm than good.

These are from Lord Ricketts, a former head of the Foreign Office and former national security adviser, on the integrated review. They provide a useful, judicious overview.

Richard Drax (Con) asks if the government will expand the size of the army, not shrink it.

Johnson says, with the reserves, the size of the army will be over 100,000. But he says the government has had to modernise it to make up for the mistakes made under Labour.

And that’s it. The statement is now over.

Sir Roger Gale (Con) says he is proud of the fact the party committed to the 0.7% aid target in its manifesto. But the fall in the value of GDP has meant the value of this target in real terms has fallen. Will the government make up the gap by supplying spare quantities of the Oxford vaccine to developing countries?

Johnson says the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is going to be produced at low-cost all over the world under the deal struck with the government.

This is from Lisa Nandy, the shadow foreign secretary.

Johnson says the government has committed to providing wrap-around childcare for those serving in the armed forces.

Pauline Latham (Con) asks if Voluntary Service Overseas (VSO) will be able to continue. There have been reports will be wound down.

Johnson says some of his family members have participated in VSO. He says the foreign secretary will make an announcement about it shortly.

Emma Lewell-Buck (Lab) asks how breaching article 6 of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty is consistent with his claim to uphold international law.

Johnson says Labour is a “seething mass of contradiction” on the nuclear deterrent.

In response to a question from Darren Jones (Lab), Johnson tells MPs that the online safety bill coming later this year will address the problem of disinformation and threats to our democracy.

But Jeremy Hunt, a Conservative former foreign secretary, said he did not think a Commons vote was necessary for the aid budget to be cut, my colleague Jessica Elgot reports.

My colleague Patrick Wintour says Andrew Mitchell’s comment (see 1.17pm) implies the government will be challenged via judicial review if it cuts aid spending without allowing a Commons vote.

Johnson claims government under no legal duty to hold Commons vote on cutting aid spending

Andrew Mitchell, the Conservative former international development secretary, says the UK is the only country in the G7 cutting its aid budget. Doing so is in breach of the Tory manifesto, he says. He says if the government wants to do this, it should put it to a vote in the Commons. Otherwise it would be in breach of the law, he says.

Johnson says people are talking the UK downn.

He says the government will return to the 0.7% aid target when the financial situation allows it.

But the law (making the 0.7% spending target a statutory obligation) does allow the government to ignore it in “exceptional circumstances”, he says. And he says the UK is in exceptional circumstances.

This is an effective admission that the government will not put the decision to cut aid spending to a parliamentary vote. Ministers and No 10 have until now refused to confirm that no vote will be scheduled.

Tom Tugendhat, the Conservative chair of the foreign affairs committee, says this is a welcome start. But will the government put meat on the bones, to ensure the funding is in place to meet these aims?

Johnson says the UK, under these proposals, will be able to project force 8,000 miles away due to the carrier strike force.

Updated

Julian Lewis, chair of the intelligence and security committee, says that he is worried that the “naivety” shown towards China during the Cameron years still exists in some parts of government judging by the review.

Johnson says a balanced approach to China is needed.

Meg Hillier, the Labour chair of the public accounts committee, asks what will be cut to pay for this. She says the government has not committed the money to pay for all the defence plans it has.

Her committee has just published a report saying there is a black hole in defence spending plans of up to £17.4bn.

Johnson blames Labour for leaving a defence hole in the defence budget.

Tobias Ellwood, the Conservative chair of the defence committee, says he was hoping for a Fulton, Missouri moment where the government would clearly stand up to China.

Johnson says there is a “balanced approach”. He says he wants a good trading relationship with China. But the government will also stand up to China on human rights, he says.

UPDATE: Here are the quotes. Ellwood said:

There is a 1930s feel to the scale of challenges that we face today with rising authoritarian powers, weak global institutions and an absence of Western leadership and collective resolve.

I was hoping for a ‘Fulton, Missouri moment’ when we finally call out China for the geostrategic threat that it is ... but I do hope the prime minister will summon that Atlantic Charter spirit of working together with our closest ally the United States to strengthen the rules-based order.

Johnson responded:

I must say that I think that there is a balance to be struck because after all, we have a strong trading relationship with China worth about £81bn, China is the second largest economy in the world and a fact of our lives.

And I think we must accept that fact in a clear-eyed way. But we’ve also got to be tough where we see risk and that’s why this Government has brought in the National Security and Investment Bill to protect our intellectual property, that’s why we’re protecting our critical national infrastructure.

That’s why [Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary] has done more than I think virtually any other foreign secretary around the world to call out what China is doing in Xinjiang and that’s why this government has offered a place, a refuge and abode, to three million Hong Kong Chinese who may be in fear of persecution as a result of what is happening in Hong Kong.

This Government takes a very, very clear-eyed approach to what is happening in China, it is a balanced approach and one that I think the British people understand.

Updated

Ian Blackford, the SNP’s leader at Westminster, says the UK’s global influence is weakening.

He says the government said 12,500 military personnel would be stationed in Scotland. The current figure is less than 10,000, he says, and likely to fall.

Aid spending is being slashed.

And spending on anti-corruption measures will be cut by 80%, he says.

He is referring to this report.

Johnson says there is no threat to the Black Watch. The government is still investing heavily in international aid, he says, securing 500 jobs in East Kilbride.

He says the SNP wants a “reckless referendum”.

Johnson says the UK will return to the 0.7% aid spending target when fiscal spending allows. He says, listening to critics of the decision to cut that spending to 0.5% of national wealth, people would not realise the UK is the biggest donor to Yemen.

Johnson is replying to Starmer. He says the shadow foreign secretary, Lisa Nandy, and the deputy Labour leader, Angela Rayner, voted against maintaining the nuclear deterrent. Labour is “all over the place” on this issue, he says.

Starmer says Britain should be a force for good in the world.

But the government now has a reputation for breaking international law, not upholding it, he says.

He says policy towards China has been inconsistent in the last decade.

Labour’s support for the nuclear deterrent is “non-negotiable”, he says.

But he says the review abandons the UK’s support for the goal of reducing the nuclear stockpile.

Sir Keir Starmer is responding to Johnson.

He says Labour wants the review to work. It wants the UK to deal with the threat it faces.

But over the last decade the government cut defence spending, he says.

He says Johnson did not say whether troop levels were being cut. It has been reported the size of the army will be cut by 10,000, he says.

Johnson says UK wants to work with China, though it poses 'great challenges for an open society'

Johnson says the US will be “our greatest ally”.

And he says the government has has “led the international community in expressing our deep concern over China’s mass detention of the Uighur people”.

There is no question that China will pose great challenges for an open society such as ours. But we will also work with China where that is consistent with our values and interests, including to build a stronger and positive economic relationship and address climate change.

Johnson says national cyber force to be located in north-west of England

Johnson says the UK remains committed to Nato. And, as it hosts the G7 summit, it will show its commitment to diplomacy and working with allies.

The UK is applying to join the Trans-Pacific tree trade agreement, he say.

The government is creating a new counter-terrorism operations centre, he says.

And the national cyber force will in future be located in a cyber corridor in the north-west of England.

Johnson says UK won't 'turn inwards' or settle for 'regional foreign policy'

Johnson says the UK is uniquely linked with what is happening on the far side of the world.

It has always been a maritime trading nation, he says.

The truth is that even if we wished it – and of course we do not – the UK could never turn inwards or be content with the cramped horizons of a regional foreign policy.

For us, there are no faraway countries of which we know little. Global Britain is not a reflection of old obligations, still less a vainglorious gesture, but a necessity for the safety and prosperity of the British people in the decades ahead.

Johnson says review designed to make UK 'stronger, safer and more prosperous'

Boris Johnson starts by saying the review is the most comprehensive since the cold war. Its aim is to make the UK “stronger, safer and more prosperous while standing up for our values”.

It is designed to “secure Britain’s place as a science superpower and a hub of innovation and research”.

The review describes how we will bolster our alliances, strengthen our capabilities, find new ways of reaching solutions and relearn the art of competing against states with opposing values.

Here is the call list showing which MPs are down to ask a question to the prime minister. Forty MPs have been selected. (Not every MP who wants to contribute gets a slot. The Commons schedule is quite busy today and, unlike his predecessor, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker, does not like letting statements like this run for hours.)

Boris Johnson's statement to MPs about integrated defence, security and foreign policy review

Boris Johnson is about to make his statement to MPs about the integrated defence, security and foreign policy review.

Here is our latest story about what it says, from my colleagues Patrick Wintour and Dan Sabbagh.

And here is some expert commentary on the integrated defence and security review.

From Shashank Joshi, defence editor at the Economist

From Mark Urban, diplomatic editor for Newsnight

The start of a thread from Robert Saunders, the historian

The start of a Twitter thread from Lisa Nandy, the shadow foreign secretary

From Tobias Ellwood, the Conservative chair of the defence committee

Government publishes defence and security review

The government has now published its integrated defence and security review, although it is not available online yet. As soon as it is, I’ll post a link. In the meantime, my colleague Dan Sabbagh has a good summary here.

Here are some other highlights picked out by journalists.

From the Telegraph’s Lucy Fisher

From ITV’s Carl Dinnen

From Tom Newton Dunn from Times Radio

Updated

Labour MP Mike Hill resigns, triggering byelection in Hartlepool

Mike Hill, the Labour MP for Hartlepool, is resigning, my colleague Aubrey Allegretti reports. The move is understood to be related to a sexual harassment claim against him, which he denies

That means there will be a byelection in Hartlepool, where Labour had a majority of less than 4,000 over the Conservatives at the last election. Hartlepool used to be a very safe Labour seat (Peter Mandelson had a majority of more than 17,000 there in the 1997 election) but it has a similar demographic to the ‘Red Wall’ seats that turned Tory in 2019.

This will be the first Westminster byelection since August 2019, because the UK has gone through the longest period since the second world war without one.

On the subject of NHS pay rises (see 11.37am), it is worth acknowledging the argument that it might matter less if the headline pay rise rate is below inflation because in practice progression pay (experience-related pay increases) take actual pay rises above the headline rate. Robert Colvile, who runs the pro-Conservative Centre for Policy Studies thinktank, set out this case in a recent Sunday Times column (paywall). “By my calculations average NHS earnings went up by 6.2% in the first two years of the [2018 pay ] deal — even though the headline uplift was just 4.7%,” Colvile writes.

Hancock claims 1% would be real-terms pay rise for NHS - ignoring inflation forecast

In his evidence to the Commons health committee Matt Hancock, the health secretary, claimed that a 1% pay rise would be a real-terms increase for NHS staff because inflation was below 1%. He told the committee:

Inflation is below 1% and therefore a proposed 1% pay rise is indeed a pay rise and that’s simply a matter of fact.

Hancock is technically right; inflation, on the most commonly-referenced CPI measures, is currently running at 0.9%, according to the most recent ONS figures.

But Hancock is ignoring the fact that it is forecast to rise over 2021-22, the period covered by the proposed pay increase. Here is the forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (pdf).

Inflation forecast
Inflation forecast Photograph: OBR

Updated

Turning back to the integrated defence and security review, Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6, was discussing it in an interview on the Today programme this morning and he said China represents a “generational threat”. He said that the notion that as China became richer it would become more democratic (a commonplace view in the west about 20 years ago) had now been shown to be wrong. He told the programme:

There’s no doubt that China represents the generational threat, and the reason for that is that the idea that China will become more like us as it gets richer, or as its economy matured, is clearly for the birds.

That’s not going to happen. On the contrary I expect China’s Communist Party to double down on its ideology in the future.

There’s going to be an ideological divergence between us in the future, that’s going to generate rivalry and reduce trust.

Younger said the UK needed to use innovation and partnerships to stand up to China. He said:

There’s no doubt that China feels advantage at the moment and the pandemic has closed the gap between us in some important ways.

The language China understands is strength and we need to generate that strength through technological innovations and stewarding our alliances.

And he stressed that there was nothing new about the UK relying on technology to guarantee its security.

Our security has really derived from our superior rate of technology development - ever since our industrial revolution in the 18th century that has been the thing that has given us the prosperity and national security capability we need.

Now, for the first time, that is under threat from an alternative values system, and we need to get real about this, and our ability to galvanise our technological capabilities and to regain our technological and scientific advantage and consolidate it, is the most fundamental driver, not just of our security but our children’s security and their children’s security.

Alex Younger.
Alex Younger. Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA

Updated

Q: Why has the government not yet agreed the extra £7bn the NHS will need for the next financial year, which is about to start?

Hancock says the government has been clear to the NHS that it will cover the operational costs of Covid. But he says the situation with the pandemic has been changing. He says he expects the settlement to be announced very soon.

We have been clear we will find the Covid costs and just working out exactly what they are is complicated, not least because you have to see where we are in the pandemic.

Thankfully we are in a far better place in the pandemic than we were in November when the spending review was settled, nor indeed in January or February.

So working out the exact operational costs will be published shortly but what all parts of the NHS know is the direct operational costs of Covid will be covered.

The questioning is now turning to the white paper.

Updated

At the health committee Jeremy Hunt, the chairman, starts by asking why the government is only proposing a 1% pay rise for NHS staff when it originally budgeted for a 2.1% increase.

Matt Hancock says NHS staff were exempt from the public sector pay freeze. He says the government made a proposal based on what was affordable. He says the government will study what the pay review body says.

Q: Is it a real-terms cut?

Hancock say inflation is below 1%, so it is a real-terms increase, he says. That’s “simply a matter of fact”, he says.

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is about to start giving evidence to the Commons health committee. The hearing is meant to be about the health white paper, but it will be surprising is Covid does not come up. There is a live feed here.

UK left us with no choice but to launch legal action, say EU ambassador

As my colleague Dan Sabbagh explains in a good analysis of the integrated defence and security review, the EU barely gets a mention. This is a document that is supposed to set out the vision of a ‘Global Britain’ outside the EU long championed by Brexiters.

As if to reinforce the point, its publication coincides with the European Union starting legal proceedings against the UK for failing to comply with its obligations under the post-Brexit Northern Ireland protocol. The EU says the UK is breaking international law, although the government claims otherwise.

This morning Joao Vale de Almeida, EU ambassador to the UK, said the UK Government had left the EU with no choice but to take legal action over the Northern Ireland Protocol. He told the Today programme:

I don’t think the government left us with any alternative to this to be frank and we regret the situation.

Looking at the facts, we believe the government is in breach of substantive provision of the protocol that applies to Northern Ireland, but also to the good faith obligation.

Johnson deliberately ignored advice to tell people to stop shaking hands in early days of pandemic, BBC reveals

As mentioned earlier, the long read by the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg on the inside story of the government’s handling of coronavirus is well worth a read. It is based on politicians and officials talking unattributably, which makes it a lot more candid than most other accounts of this period (because people said things they would not be willing to admit on the record), although in some respects less precise (because we can’t tell exactly who thought what).

Here are some of the key revelations.

  • Boris Johnson deliberately ignored advice to tell people to give up shaking hands in the early stages of the pandemic, the report says. We knew that at a No 10 press conferences he boasted about shaking hands on a visit at a time when Sage was already advising against hand shaking, but generally this has been written up as a mistake. Kuenssberg says Johnson purposefully ignored instructions to give the public the proper public health advice. She writes:

Before the first major coronavirus briefing on 3 March, he had, I am told, been prepared by aides to say, if asked by journalists, people should stop shaking hands with each other - as per government scientific advice.

But he said the exact opposite. “I’ve shaken hands with everybody,” he said, about visiting a hospital with Covid patients.

And it was not just a slip, one of those present at the briefing says. It demonstrated “the whole conflict for him - and his lack of understanding of the severity of what was coming”.

In a comment to Kuessnberg, No 10 did not specifically deny this claim.

  • Johnson repeatedly resisted pressure for an earlier lockdown last autumn, the report says. Kuenssberg writes:

Others wanted to push again - one current official recalls a “concerted effort” - and on Sunday 20th [September], the No 10 team gathered a range of scientists. But the prime minister remained reluctant.

Another current official describes his attitude as, “if there is a way not to act, why do it?”.

Over the next 36 hours, I have been told, a small group inside Downing Street repeatedly tried to change Mr Johnson’s mind - but by then, he was operating in a very different atmosphere.

“A swampiness had risen because of ideological pressure on this government at every turn to do less - and to do it more slowly,” a senior figure says. And it is understood Mr Johnson had privately assured groups of MPs there would be no more restrictions.

  • In the early days ministers took the idea of a ‘herd immunity’ response to the pandemic, that would protect only the most vulnerable, much more seriously than they now claim, the report says.

There was a genuine argument in government, which everyone has subsequently denied,” one senior figure tells me, about whether there should be a hard lockdown or a plan to protect only the most vulnerable, and even encourage what was described to me at that time as “some degree of herd immunity”.

There was even talk of “chicken pox parties”, where healthy people might be encouraged to gather to spread the disease. And while that was not considered a policy proposal, real consideration was given to whether suppressing Covid entirely could be counter productive.

  • Johnson in the very early days, when coronavirus arrived in the UK, suggested the problem could be ignored, the report says.

Ministers and officials had already been meeting to discuss the virus in China - but it felt thousands of miles away. There was a “lack of concern and energy,” one source tells me. “The general view was it is just hysteria. It was just like a flu.”

The prime minister was even heard to say: “The best thing would be to ignore it.” And he repeatedly warned, several sources tell me, that an overreaction could do more harm than good.

  • The response to the news about Dominic Cummings’s visiting Durham during lockdown is now widely recognised as disastrous, the report says.

Many of those I have talked to describe this episode as a terrible turning-point.

“Even for us, this is mad,” a member of the Downing Street team tells me.

Senior ministers say: “The handling was a fiasco”. “It was ridiculous”, and, at a time of national emergency, “broke the political consensus”.

Updated

Raab defends plan to increase Trident nuclear warhead stockpile

As my colleague Dan Sabbagh reports in his preview of the integrated defence and security review, it will say that Britain is lifting the cap on the number of Trident nuclear warheads it can stockpile by more than 40%.

In interview this morning, Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, was asked why the UK would want to increase the number of nuclear warheads in its stockpile. He replied:

Because over time as the circumstances change and the threats change, we need to maintain a minimum credible level of deterrent.

Why? Because it is the ultimate guarantee, the ultimate insurance policy against the worst threat from hostile states.

Talking about the review in general terms, Raab said that its strength was that it took a long-term, “generational” view of the threats facing the UK. He told Sky News:

The integrated review looks 10 years down the track, it is a generational look at the strategic approach to foreign policy, defence.

We are also looking at new threats, which is why things like cyber - how we deal with hostile states, the criminal gangs who are looking to prey on our data, our mobile phones and our tablets - and all of those types of threats as well.

And what I think is exciting about the review is it is also looking at our advantages, the assets we’ve got, the positives we’ve got from tech to trade - we see it on science, with innovations on the vaccine.

How do we marshal all of our hard power, our soft power, ingenuity, along with our cultural brand - Britain is very well regarded abroad - how do we get the most impact to serve the people of this country, from jobs to security, but also to be an even stronger force for good in the world, which matters?

With a nod to the government’s domestic levelling up agenda, Raab also said that the review would how how the UK could “create the better-paid jobs of the future”.

Dominic Raab on ITV’s Good Morning Britain this morning.
Dominic Raab on ITV’s Good Morning Britain this morning. Photograph: ITV/REX/Shutterstock

A total of 2,105 deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 5 March mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) - the lowest number since the week ending November 6. As PA Media reports, the figure is down 28% on the previous week’s total.

Good morning. A year ago today Boris Johnson announced the “soft” lockdown, telling people to avoid non-essential contact and to work from home. The proper lockdown was announced a week later, on 23 March. To mark the anniversary, the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg has published an excellent long read revealing new details about how complacent and unprepared the government was in the very early days of the crisis. (More on that soon.) Today Johnson is publishing his long-awaited integrated review of defence and foreign policy and one of its functions is to ensure that, as the country faces other threats in the future, this time the government will be better prepared.

As my colleague Aubrey Allegretti reports, the review says another novel pandemic is a “realistic possibility”.

He is referring to a passage in the document, which has been widely leaked ahead of its publication at lunchtime, saying:

Infectious disease outbreaks are likely to be more frequent to 2030. Many will be zoonoses – diseases caused by viruses, bacteria or parasites that - spread from animals to humans - as population growth drives the intensification of agriculture and as the loss of habitats increases interaction between humans and animals. Another novel pandemic remains a realistic possibility. On current trends, global deaths related to antimicrobial resistance will rise from 700,000 to 20 million per year by 2050.

I will be covering the report, Johnson’s statement announcing it, and the reaction in detail later.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: The ONS publishes its weekly death figures for England and Wales.

11am: Matt Hancock, the health secretary, gives evidence to the Commons health committee about the health white paper.

11.30am: Anneliese Dodds, the shadow chancellor, speaks at a Reform event.

12.30pm: Boris Johnson makes a statement to MPs about the integrated review of defence and foreign policy. As my colleague Dan Sabbagh reports, it will say Britain is lifting the cap on the number of Trident nuclear warheads it can stockpile by more than 40%.

2pm: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, makes a statement to the Scottish parliament about Covid.

Politics Live has been mostly about Covid for the last year and I will be covering UK coronavirus developments, as well as non-coronavirus Westminster politics. For global coronavirus news, do read our global live blog.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Updated

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