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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow, Lucy Campbell and Matthew Weaver

UK coronavirus: Raab says it would not be safe to reopen all schools; official death toll rises to 29,427

Evening summary

  • The UK coronavirus death toll rose above 32,000 to the highest in Europe. ONS figures and calculations by Reuters revealed that 32,313 deaths were registered with Covid-19 on the death certificate. However, as the official tally reached 29,427, the government rejected international comparisons due to all-cause excess mortality as well as differences in how individual countries collect and measure their data. Dominic Raab told the daily press briefing:

I don’t think you can make the international comparisons you’re suggesting at this stage, at least I don’t think you can make them reliably.

  • The UK’s testing capacity should have been expanded sooner, Sir Patrick Vallance told the health committee. However he said Dr Jenny Harries had been right to say testing on its own does not provide the solution. He said:

In the early phases, if we had managed to ramp testing capacity quicker, it would have been beneficial.

For all sorts of reasons that did not happen. And I think it’s clear you need lots of testing for this.

  • Reopening all schools at once would create a “very real risk” of an increase in the infection rate and of a second peak, the government said. Raab said the evidence to date suggested the five tests and risk of a second spike were crucial to deciding how and when to reopen schools, and Sage is considering different options for how to do this safely. This came on the same day the Scottish government published a paper outlining that it would not be safe for schools to reopen fully in the foreseeable future. An extract said:

Full reopening [of schools] would cause a resurgence in the virus such that hospital capacity in Scotland would be overwhelmed in less than two months ...

We are considering a phased approach to returning pupils to school, when it is safe to do so. We do not consider it likely that schools will reopen fully in the foreseeable future. Indeed, we are not yet certain that they can re-open at all in the near future.

  • Virgin Atlantic announced plans to cut 3,150 jobs and end its operation of Gatwick. The airline said uncertainty over when flying will resume as well as “unprecedented market conditions” as a result of the pandemic had “severely reduced revenues”, leaving it to reduce its workforce by more than a third.

That’s it from us for today on the UK side. Thank you to everyone who got in touch with a story and to all of you for reading along.

If you would like to continue following the Guardian’s coverage of the pandemic, head over to the global live blog for the worldwide picture.

Updated

As the UK’s official death toll from Covid-19 passed Italy’s for the first time, it is worth noting that one month ago, government sources were privately sceptical of a study by world-leading disease data analysts that projected the UK would be the worst-affected country in Europe. The study anticipated 66,000 deaths by August. The total figure on Tuesday, which is certain to be an underestimate, was already more than 32,000.

With Britain’s relative position appearing to worsen, the government’s attempt to shape the narrative at its daily Downing Street press briefing has become more important – and the slideshow of charts presented by advisers have been at the heart of the story.

The slides have become a recognisable feature of the discussion but there has been little scrutiny of the data behind them – and how it can mislead rather than enlighten.

Read the full analysis by Pamela Duncan and Niamh McIntyre here:

Updated

A sculpture surrounding a bollard consisting of plumbing materials, sunglasses and a protective face mask is seen as a bus passes by in Lewisham, London.
A sculpture surrounding a bollard consisting of plumbing materials, sunglasses and a protective face mask is seen as a bus passes by in Lewisham, London. Photograph: Hannah McKay/Reuters

Dominic Raab's press conference - Summary

Here are the main points from Dominic Raab’s press conference.

  • Raab, the foreign secretary and first secretary of state, claimed it was too early to say that the UK has the worst record for coronavirus deaths in Europe. He was speaking after he said that the official death toll for coronavirus deaths in the UK is now 29,427. This covers all people who have died and tested positive for coronavirus. It does not include people who will have died from coronavirus without a test being carried out. As this chart from the respected Worldometer website shows, today’s total means the headline UK figure has overtaken Italy’s and is now the highest in Europe.
Global death figures
Global death figures Photograph: Worldometer

But when it was put to Raab that the UK now has the worst record in Europe, he did not accept that. He replied:

In terms of the comparison you’re suggesting ... I don’t think we’ll get a real verdict on how well countries have done until the pandemic is over and particularly until we’ve got comprehensive international data on all cause of mortality.

Raab also suggested that one reason why the UK might be looking so bad was because of the efficiency of the Office for National Statistics. He said:

We now publish data that includes all deaths in all settings and not all countries do that so I’m not sure that the international comparison works unless you reliably know that all countries are measuring in the same way.

And it also depends on how good frankly, countries are at gathering their statistics, and our own Office for National Statistics is widely acknowledged as a world leader.

I don’t think you can make the international comparisons you’re suggesting at this stage, at least I don’t think you can make them reliably.

  • Raab said it would not be safe to re-open all schools in England. He said:

At least to date the evidence has been that we wouldn’t be able to open up all schools without a very real risk that the R rate - the transmission rate - would rise at such a level that we would risk a second spike.

He was speaking in response to a question about whether the UK government agreed with the assessment of the Scottish government, which in a paper published today (pdf) said schools in Scotland could not fully re-open for the foreseeable future. The Scottish document said:

Full re-opening [of schools] would cause a resurgence in the virus such that hospital capacity in Scotland would be overwhelmed in less than two months ...

We are considering a phased approach to returning pupils to school, when it is safe to do so. We do not consider it likely that schools will reopen fully in the foreseeable future. Indeed, we are not yet certain that they can re-open at all in the near future.

  • Raab said cyber criminals, aided by hostile states, were trying to take advantage of the coronavirus crisis. He said:

We have clear evidence now that these criminal gangs are actively targeting national and international organisations which are responding to the Covid-19 pandemic which I have to say makes them particularly dangerous and venal at this time.

Our teams have identified campaigns targeting healthcare bodies, pharmaceutical companies, research organisations and various different arms of local government.

There are various objectives and motivations that lie behind these attacks from fraud on one hand to espionage but they tend to be designed to steal bulk personal data, intellectual property and wider information that supports those aims and they’re with other state actors.

  • He confirmed that, for the third day in a row, the number of coronavirus tests carried out fell below the 100,000 target set for the end of April. He said 84,806 tests were carried out on Monday.
  • He said ministers are looking at sports being played behind closed doors in the second phase of the coronavirus response. Asked about the Premier League possibly returning in mid-June, he replied:

I think it would lift the spirits of the nation. I think people would like to see us get back not just to work and get to a stage where children can safely return to school, but also enjoy some of those pastimes, sporting in particular.

I know that the government has had constructive meetings with sports bodies to plan for athletes to resume training when it’s safe to do so.

I can tell you that the culture secretary [Oliver Dowden] has also been working on a plan to get sports played behind closed doors when we move to the second phase, that’s something I can tell you we’re looking at.

Whether it’s a combination of test, tracking, tracing and other social distancing measures within what’s possible within a sporting environment we want to see whether behind closed doors what the options are for doing that.

Dominic Raab speaking at the press conference.
Dominic Raab speaking at the press conference. Photograph: Pippa Fowles/10 Downing Street/AFP via Getty Images

The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus among prisoners and staff continues to rise, the latest Ministry of Justice data shows.

As at 5pm on Monday, 362 prisoners had tested positive for the virus across 74 prisons, an increase of 1% in 24 hours, while infected staff rose by 1.5% to 401 workers in 67 prisons in the same period. The figures include those who have recovered.

A total of 19 prisoners and six prison staff are known to have contracted Covid-19 and died.

There are 80,100 prisoners in England and Wales and around 33,000 staff in public-sector prisons.

Doctors in Birmingham have launched an urgent investigation into how and why Covid-19 is disproportionately affecting black, Asian and minority ethnic people, our colleague Haroon Siddique reports.

Last month the government announced a similar nationwide inquiry but details remain sparse and the selection of some of those chosen to assist has proved controversial. Meanwhile, doctors at University hospitals Birmingham NHS trust are pressing ahead with their own review.

Dr Adnan Sharif, a consultant nephrologist at Queen Elizabeth hospital, said:

Birmingham is a single local authority, over a million people on its books with a large, 42%, BAME community which has been impacted by Covid a lot, so it would be the best place to try and do this.

Figures from another trust in the region show 64% of coronavirus deaths at Birmingham city hospital in March were from BAME communities, although it fell last month to 50%.

University hospitals Birmingham NHS trust, one of the biggest teaching trusts in the country, has recorded the highest number of Covid-19 deaths of any trust.

The full story is here.

Gove floats prospect of UK conceding need for some tariffs in UK-EU trade deal

Michael Gove has hinted that the UK would be prepared to abandon its goal of getting a zero-tariff, zero-quotas trade deal with the EU if it did not relent on its demand for a level playing field.

Speaking to the House of Lords EU committee, the Cabinet Office minister said it might be a way of showing the EU how serious the UK was. He explained:

It is a ‘for instance’ of an area where we would say, okay, we’re prepared to modify our ‘ask’ because of the importance that we maintain over regulatory autonomy. It may be that the EU doesn’t resolve that in ways that would be helpful, but it is one of the ways in which we would be prepared to show leg.

The EU wants the UK to commit to a level playing field in workers’ rights, environmental protections and state aid so that it doesn’t have a “Singapore-type” competitor on its door step.

Gove floated the idea of the UK accepting the case for a trade deal involving some tariffs as a solution. He said:

Were it the case that the EU were to say, ‘you know what, we don’t think we can give you that unless you sign up to all our level playing field arrangements’, so we said ‘OK, we’re not signing up for those LPF arrangements, we will have non-regression clauses and agreements, so you can be sure about our standards’. But, if it is the case that we ended up like CETA [the EU-Canada trade deal] with tariffs on a small number of goods, we will regret that, we will think it is a missed opportunity, but if that is the price that we have to pay, then, there we go.

Updated

Here is a clip of the moment Matt Hancock, the health secretary, criticised the ‘tone’ of Labour shadow minister and A&E doctor Rosena Allin-Khan after she said the government’s lack of testing had cost lives. She also said the figures were being manipulated to achieve a goal of 100,000 tests a day.

Dr Allin-Khan later tweeted:

A mural in support of the NHS in east Belfast.
A mural in support of the NHS in east Belfast. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP via Getty Images

The press conference is now over.

Q: [From the Western Mail in Wales] These press conferences can be confusing for people in Wales, because some measures are UK-wide and some are England-only. Will you be clearer about this?

Raab says the advice has been “remarkably consistent” across all four UK nations.

Raab says it would be good to get sports events happening again. But this can only happen when the medical and scientific advice says it can be done safely.

Q: If sports are behind closed doors, will that apply until a vaccine is found?

Raab says he cannot look too far into the future because a vaccine is just one way of controlling the disease. Therapeutics (medicines) are another. Test, track and trace might be an answer too, he says.

Raab says it would not be safe to reopen all schools

Q: What are the prospects of schools opening in England?

Raab says he feels for parents dealing with home schooling, and for teachers.

He says the five tests are crucial. The government wants to avoid a second spike.

He says Sage is looking at different options. But they could not open all schools without a real risk of R going above 1, he says.

  • Raab says it would not be safe to reopen all schools.

Q: What do we know about obesity as a risk factor? Should people diet?

McLean says obesity does seem to make you more at risk.

It is best not to be obese, she says. But she says that there are better ways to control your weight than dieting.

Updated

Q: The Scottish government said today if schools went back in Scotland, hospitals could become overwhelmed, by as much as seven times. Does that apply to England?

McLean says it is hard to monitor children, because they tend to have very mild symptoms if they get it.

Q: Is it the right time to do Brexit talks? Or are there benefits from doing it now?

Raab says both sides will want to avoid uncertainty.

We are making good progress, he says. Or progress, he says, correcting himself.

But he says it is important to avoid future uncertainty. To do that, the UK and the EU should strike a trade deal. Both sides could then bounce back. Prolonging the uncertainty would make things worse, he says.

Q: Why is the end-of-year deadline so important?

The country wants certainty, Raab says.

Updated

Q: When the test, track and trace system is in place, do you think the death rate will come closer to the European average?

Raab says the UK has been able to flatten the peak because of public cooperation with the lockdown.

He says test, track and trace should give the government the ability to move to the second phase.

McLean says the global death comparison chart shows cumulative deaths. So the numbers won’t go down. They can only go flat.

And the UK will only match other countries if they catch up, McLean says. But she says she would not wish that on anyone.

Raab says it is too early to say UK has worst coronavirus death record in Europe

Q: It is looking as if the UK now has the highest death toll in Europe.

Raab says his heart goes out to the families of all those who have died.

But he says he does not think we will get a real verdict until this is all over. All-cause excess mortality is what counts.

He says countries count in different ways. And some are better at counting than others.

He says the ONS is one of the best organisations of its kind in the world. And he says the government wants the most accurate figures, because that shapes policy.

I don’t think you can make the international comparisons you are making at this stage - at least, I don’t think you can make them reliably.

The government dashboard with the latest death figures has now been updated. It shows that an extra 693 UK deaths have been reported.

Prof Dame Angela McLean, the deputy chief scientific adviser, is now presenting the daily slides.

Here are the transport figures. “It does trouble me,” she says, that transport use is creeping up.

Transport use
Transport use Photograph: No 10

Here are the latest testing figures.

(In this chart 100,000 a day is starting to look more like a peak than a new norm.)

Testing figures
Testing figures Photograph: No 10

Here is the chart with the recorded death figures.

Recorded deaths
Recorded deaths Photograph: No 10

This chart shows deaths by where they have occurred.

McLean says it shows how deaths in care homes are an increasing concern.

Deaths by location
Deaths by location Photograph: No 10

And here is the final slide, the global death comparison.

McLean says the UK figure is higher than they would wish.

Global death comprison
Global death comprison Photograph: No 10

Raab says cybercriminals, aided by hostile states, seeking to exploit coronavirus crisis

Raab says the next stage won’t be easy.

While most people have rallied behind the fight against coronavirus, he says, some people are taking advantage. He says the government has evidence that sophisticated hackers, known as advanced persistent threat groups, are trying to take advantage of the crisis.

Cyber-experts in the UK and the US have, he says, published a joint statement today warning of the threat. There are various motives for these threats, from fraud to espionage. But they tend to be interested in stealing data, often working with other actors.

He says hostile states may be involved.

  • Raab warns that cybercriminals, aided by hostile states, are seeking to exploit coronavirus crisis.

Updated

Raab says that 84,806 coronavirus tests were carried out yesterday.

(That means the for the third day in a row testing has fallen below the 100,000 target set for the end of April.)

He says there have been 29,427 UK coronavirus deaths.

Updated

Dominic Raab's press conference

Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary and first secretary of state, has just arrived for today’s government press conference.

Some horse races should be started without stalls as a means of reducing risk when the sport returns to action, two stalls handlers have told the Guardian. Our colleague Chris Cook has the story here.

Updated

Public trust in the work of scientists and health experts has grown during the coronavirus pandemic, amid a surge in misinformation about the virus, a poll has found.

The opinion poll by the Open Knowledge Foundation, an open data campaign group, found 64% of voters were now more likely to listen to expert advice from scientists and researchers, with only 5% saying they were less likely to do so.

The Survation poll also found 51% of the population had seen fake news about the coronavirus, including discredited claims that Covid-19 was linked to 5G mobile phone masts, on social media sites such as Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.

A mural paying tribute to the NHS in Glynn, north of Belfast.
A mural paying tribute to the NHS in Glynn, north of Belfast. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP via Getty Images

The English game is braced for losses of up to £380m if no matches are played this summer due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to Tom Harrison, CEO of the England and Wales Cricket Board.

The cricket season was due to begin on 2 April, but no matches will be played now until the start of July at the earliest. “We anticipate the cost of no cricket this year could be as bad as £380m. That is the worst-case scenario for us,” Harrison told the Commons digital, culture, media and sport committee about the impact of coronavirus.

That would be the loss of 800 days of cricket across all of our professional clubs and the ECB. It is the most significant financial challenge we have ever faced.

The full story is here.

Updated

The Scottish government’s latest document on its approach to easing the lockdown may have one of the dreariest titles ever – Covid-19: Framework for Decision Making, Further Information (pdf) – but it does provide solid and interesting insights into what the next few months might look like. It applies to Scotland, but the issues facing the rest of the UK are broadly the same, and it is likely that when Downing Street does get round to publishing its version, there will be many similarities.

As is often the case with official documents, the graphics are as illuminating as the text, and two in particular stand out.

This one, in annex B, sums up the Scottish government’s approach. It shows two things in particular,

First, it suggests that the Scottish government anticipates a possible second peak, albeit a much smaller one, at the end of the year. (Sir Patrick Vallance said earlier that the biggest risk of a second peak would come in the winter – see 11.37am.)

And, second, it implies that the current restrictions may not be fully lifted until the middle of next year.

Scottish government’s coronavirus approach
Scottish government’s coronavirus approach. Photograph: Scottish government

And this one illustrates the relationship between case numbers (the number of infectious people, on the vertical axis), the reproduction number (R, on the horizontal axis), and the time it would take for coronavirus cases to overwhelm Scotland’s intensive care bed capacity (between one month and never, denoted by the different colour blocks).

The saltire on the chart represents roughly where Scotland is now. According to the report, the number of infectious people is estimated to be 26,000, and R is likely to be between 0.7 and 1.

How increases in R could overwhelm Scotland’s NHS capacity
How increases in R could overwhelm Scotland’s NHS capacity. Photograph: Scottish government

Updated

A third resident has died in a care home on Skye at the centre of a significant coronavirus outbreak.

The care home’s operators, HC-One, confirmed the death, which follows the deaths of two other residents at Home Farm in Portree on Monday in the latest large outbreak at a care home.

It emerged over the weekend that 30 of the home’s 34 residents and 27 staff, half its workforce, tested positive for Covid-19 after local NHS officials ordered widespread testing at the facility.

With the exception of Shetland, where there have been 54 confirmed cases and six deaths, Scotland’s islands were thought to have largely escaped the pandemic. The Skye case has shocked islanders, and a mobile testing unit run by the army has been set up to trace any other cases on the island.

Updated

No 10’s scientific advisers warned that the government should tell people not to shake hands on the same day that Boris Johnson boasted about doing so “with everybody” at a hospital where there were confirmed coronavirus patients, Rowena Mason reports.

In the Commons earlier Matt Hancock, the health secretary, accused Rosena Allin-Khan, a shadow health minister and A&E doctor, of adopting the wrong “tone” when she asked a critical question in the Commons. She said told him that “many frontline workers feel that the government’s lack of testing has cost lives and is responsible for many families being unnecessarily torn apart in grief”.

Afterwards she posted a tweet defending the wording of her question.

Deaths in Northern Ireland rise by 17 to 404

There have been a further 17 confirmed deaths of patients who tested positive for Covid-19 in Northern Ireland, according to the Department of Health, bringing the total number of deaths there to 404.

Of the 17 “new” deaths, only six occurred within the most recent 24 hours. The rest occurred earlier.

The full details are here.

NI death figures
NI death figures Photograph: Health department, NI

Updated

Welsh first minister urges second home owners to stay away over bank holiday weekend

The Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, has published an open letter calling for people not to make unnecessary trips over the bank holiday weekend and for second home owners to stay away. The letter says:

Wales is a beautiful and welcoming country but, like other administrations across the United Kingdom, the Welsh government has placed restrictions on non-essential travel.

We have also limited access to our national parks, and imposed restrictions on caravan and campsites, hotels, B&Bs and holiday accommodation. These businesses can currently open only in response to a request from the Welsh government or a local authority.

In particular, we are asking all owners of second homes in Wales to act responsibly and to avoid travelling to those homes until restrictions have been lifted. We look forward to welcoming you back once it is safe again to do so.

The letter is also signed by the chair of policing Wales, Dafydd Llywelyn, and Cllr Andrew Morgan, the leader of the Welsh Local Government Association.

School attendance in England is up, but only marginally, with just 2% of pupils who would normally attend turning up in schools last week, up from 1.8% the week before, according to official figures.

Under lockdown restrictions, schools are only open to children of key workers or those classed as vulnerable, but the numbers overall have been far lower than expected. On 30 April 191,000 children attended an education setting, compared with 175,000 on 23 April, according to Department for Education data.

Attendance among vulnerable children is also up, from 50,000 to 58,000, but this still only represents 12% of all children and young people classified as children in need or those who have an education, health and care plan for special educational needs, all of whom are entitled to a school place.

Headteachers and social services have been working to maintain regular contact with their vulnerable pupils, but many in the sector remain concerned about the impact of school closures on the most vulnerable and the potential risks of losing sight of at-risk children.

Updated

An ambulance passes new Thank You NHS road markings on the A4 in Slough, Berkshire.
An ambulance passes new Thank You NHS road markings on the A4 in Slough, Berkshire. Photograph: Maureen McLean/REX/Shutterstock

Updated

With false information linking the coronavirus to 5G telecoms or Chinese labs being widely shared on social media, in this week’s episode of the Science Weekly podcast the Guardian’s science editor, Ian Sample, speaks to social psychologist Dr Daniel Jolley about why the pandemic is such fertile ground for conspiracy theories.

Updated

NHS dentistry will be left in an “existential crisis” if the government does not offer the industry further support, MPs have warned.

Labour’s Alex Sobel said that many dental practices are “fearing bankruptcy and ultimately, closure” and will not survive the coronavirus outbreak, while the Tory MP Maria Miller highlighted the lack of PPE in dental surgeries.

The health secretary, Matt Hancock, replied that it was “important to get dentistry back on its feet”.

Sobel said:

Dozens of dentists have got in touch with me saying that the measures put in place aren’t protecting them and their practices - they take on a combination of private and NHS patients.

Many are fearing bankruptcy and ultimately, closure.

This will leave NHS dentistry in an existential crisis - what steps is the secretary of state taking to ensure that NHS dentistry survives the coronavirus crisis?

Health ministers are working “very hard” with the British Dental Association and other bodies “to make sure that dentists get the support that we need”, Hancock replied.

Miller added that a number of dentists in her constituency of Basingstoke feel that they have not got the correct personal protective equipment to be able to carry out emergency dental procedures.

Hancock replied that he would write to her with the proposed plans for reopening dentistry, adding:

It’s obviously got to be done in a safe way and PPE is one important consideration. Dentistry by its nature requires close contact and also can be an aerosol-generating procedure in certain circumstances which makes it a higher risk to the dental practitioner, the dentist or nurse and therefore by turn to other future patients.

So we’ve got to get this right. Emergency dentistry is available in dentistry hubs that have been set up during the crisis.

It’s important to get it right but it’s important to get dentistry back on its feet.

Updated

The Rugby Football Union’s chief executive, Bill Sweeney, has warned it would be a “catastrophe” if next year’s Six Nations is cancelled, and says the organisation would need a government bailout if England do not play again until next summer.

Sweeney has revealed the union is facing losses of at least £100m if England’s autumn internationals are played behind closed doors – a figure which rises to £122m if they are cancelled – and if next year’s Six Nations is similarly affected. He conceded:

We would have to come to the government for support.

The full story is here.

Updated

Damian Collins, the former chair of the Commons digital, culture, media and sport committee, has written to Matt Hancock with 10 questions about the new NHSX contact tracing app.

The letter to the health secretary addresses concerns that have been raised about privacy and how the data collected by the app will be used.

Virgin Atlantic to axe more than 3,000 jobs as aviation sector struggles amid pandemic

Virgin Atlantic has announced plans to cut 3,150 jobs and end its operation at Gatwick airport as the aviation industry struggles to survive the impact of the coronavirus crisis.

The business said uncertainty over when flying will resume as well as “unprecedented market conditions” as a result of the pandemic had “severely reduced revenues”.

The airline will reduce its workforce by more than a third and flights from Gatwick, closed due to the collapse in demand caused by the pandemic, will not restart. Some routes will be switched to Heathrow.

The Virgin Atlantic chief executive, Shai Weiss, said the carrier must take steps to “reduce our costs, preserve cash and to protect as many jobs as possible”. He said:

We have weathered many storms since our first flight 36 years ago, but none has been as devastating as Covid-19 and the associated loss of life and livelihood for so many.

However, to safeguard our future and emerge a sustainably profitable business, now is the time for further action to reduce our costs, preserve cash and to protect as many jobs as possible.

It is crucial that we return to profitability in 2021.

I wish it was not the case, but we will have to reduce the number of people we employ.

He added:

After 9/11 and the global financial crisis, we took similar painful measures but fortunately many members of our team were back flying with us within a couple of years. Depending on how long the pandemic lasts and the period of time our planes are grounded for, hopefully the same will happen this time.

The airline said talks with the government about obtaining additional funding during the coronavirus lockdown “are ongoing”.

Sir Richard Branson recently warned the carrier he founded would collapse unless it received government support.

Rival airline British Airways announced last week it planned to cut 12,000 jobs.

Updated

England records another 366 deaths, taking total to 21,750

NHS England has announced 366 more deaths of patients who tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 21,750. The full figures are here (pdf).

Of the 366 new deaths announced today:
- 66 occurred on 4 May
- 127 occurred on 3 May
- 54 occurred on 2 May
- 29 occurred on 1 May

The figures also show 85 of the new deaths took place in April while the remaining five deaths occurred in March, with the earliest new death taking place on 19 March.

NHS England releases updated figures each day showing the dates of every coronavirus-related death in hospitals in England, often including previously uncounted deaths that took place several days or even weeks ago. This is because of the time it takes for deaths to be confirmed as Covid-19 related, for post-mortem examinations to be processed and for data from the tests to be validated.

The figures published today by NHS England show 8 April continues to have the highest number for the most hospital deaths occurring on a single day, with a current total of 871.

Updated

A depleted workforce, problems with physical distancing and a lack of confidence among parents about children’s safety will present huge practical difficulties for schools reopening to more pupils, headteachers have warned.

The government has said it plans to reopen schools in phases, potentially starting as early as 1 June, with year 6 primary school children expected to return first, followed by other primary pupils and those in years 10 and 12 who are preparing for GCSEs and A-levels next summer.

School leaders, however, say there are likely to be significant staffing problems. One in four who took part in a survey of more than 7,000 members of the NAHT head teachers’ union said fewer than 50% of staff were currently available to attend school, either because they had symptoms, were high risk, or were shielding or caring.

Almost three in 10 (29%) said they thought it would be impossible to observe physical distancing in primary schools, and fewer than one in 10 (9%) thought it was feasible to achieve with children aged seven and under.

Ahead of reopening, the NAHT has called on the government for better guidance on physical distancing in schools, more information on how to support staff and pupils who are high risk or live with someone who is high risk and greater clarity on the science behind a return to school, as well as the availability of testing and PPE.

Paul Whiteman, the NAHT’s general secretary, said:

It is clear from our survey of school leaders that the government cannot just ‘flip a switch’ and expect schools to immediately return to what we had before. The government has a lot more planning to do, which has to be collaborative with the profession in order to be successful.

A separate survey of more than 2,000 members of the National Education Union raised similar concerns and revealed that almost a quarter (23%) were currently shielding because of a pre-existing medical condition or pregnancy.

Of those regularly attending school, which is still open to children of key workers and vulnerable pupils, just 11% said their school was conducting temperature checks, almost a quarter (22%) said there was insufficient soap or hand sanitiser and just over three in five said they were concerned about physical distancing measures currently in place to keep the small numbers of children still in school safe. Around half were worried about social distancing measures for staff.

Kevin Courtney, the joint general secretary of the National Education Union, said:

There should be no mad rush to reopen schools. It must be done with great care, and alongside a profession who feel confident about safety measures being adequate and fit for purpose.

Updated

Another 26 deaths in Wales, taking total to 1,023

Covid-19 has claimed more than 1,000 lives in Wales, the country’s health minister, Vaughan Gething, has announced.

Gething said:

Covid-19 has now taken over 1,000 lives in Wales. This isn’t just a number, but a sombre milestone, and a stark reminder of what we are collectively fighting for.

There have now been 1,023 deaths in Wales – an increase of 26 on the previous 24 hours. The full figures are here.

During the Welsh government’s daily press conference, Gething played down a leaked report from Public Health Wales that claimed more than 30,000 tests a day could be needed to track and trace coronavirus.

Gething said it was a draft plan and suggested the final daily number needed could be fewer than 9,000. Its current capacity is around 2,100 a day. Only 892 were actually carried out on Monday.

The health minister said:

I’m confident we’ll be at that sort of range [9,000] before the end of May, when I’m looking for this plan to be ready for full roll-out across the country - if that is the point at which lockdown measures start to ease.

Updated

No 10 suggests rules on people meeting outdoors could be relaxed

The Downing Street lobby briefing has finished. Here are the main points.

  • Ministers are considering easing the coronavirus social distancing restrictions on people meeting outdoors, Downing Street has said. The prime minister’s spokesman said they were looking at a range of possible “easements”, as well some toughening of the rules, ahead of the expected publication on Sunday of the government’s roadmap for easing the lockdown. The spokesman said:

We are looking at a range of possible easements to the social distancing measures. We are also looking at areas that need to be toughened. Once we have the scientific evidence and we have completed the review process, we will be able to set out what those are.

Asked about a suggestion by Nicola Sturgeon that people in Scotland could be allowed to meet up with “small defined groups” outdoors, the spokesman said:

Broadly the scientific and medical experts have been clear that there is less likelihood of transmission of this disease outdoors than indoors. That will obviously be something we are considering as part of the review.

  • The prime minister’s spokesman did not deny a report saying that the Treasury could scale back the “furlough” scheme after June, so that it would only pay 60% of wages, not 80%. The spokesman did not comment on the report. But he pointed out that yesterday, in an interview, the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, said:

I am working as we speak to figure out the most effective way to wind down the scheme and ease people back into work in a measured way.

  • The spokesman did not dispute what Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, told MPs this morning about how it would have been better if testing had been increased sooner. (See 11.19am.) The spokesman said the government accepted that it would have been better to have done more testing earlier. But it did not have the capacity, the spokesman said. He said the government was starting from a lower base.
  • The spokesman rejected suggestions that what Vallance told MPs about being one metre away from an infected person being much more dangerous than being two metres away (see 10.06am) meant that relaxing the two-metre rule would be reckless. He said it would be important to consider any new government guidance in the round.
  • The spokesman indicated that, when Boris Johnson gives details of his plans to start relaxing the lockdown, he will also publish a written document setting out his plans.
  • The spokesman defended the decision to publish only a selection of the documents produced and considered by Sage, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. He said some documents were withheld because they were relevant to decisions that were still being considered.
  • The spokesman said Boris Johnson may not have seen a Sage paper from 3 March that advised against shaking hands. Johnson was still shaking hands beyond that point.
  • The spokesman said that, when Boris Johnson was photographed walking in St James’s Park this morning, he was taking his daily exercise allowed under lockdown rules. (See 12.50am.)
  • The spokesman said the coronavirus-related absentee rate in the NHS was now 3.2% for doctors and 6.8% for nurses. One month ago those figures were 6.6% and 9.5% respectively, he said.

Updated

A tribute to the NHS is displayed inside an Audi showroom in West London today.
A tribute to the NHS is displayed inside an Audi showroom in west London today. Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

Updated

In the Commons Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said that he could consider a proposal for a national arboretum memorial commemorating those essential workers who have lost their lives to coronavirus. He was responding to a question from the Conservative MP Heather Wheeler, who said such a memorial would be “a fitting way to commemorate the sad loss of essential workers to Covid-19”.

Q: What options will be available for parents who do not want to send their children back to school?

Sturgeon says she has to act in partnership with the public. She suggests there would be no point saying pupils should go back to school if parents did not have confidence in that decision.

Updated

Q: The Irish government’s plan for relaxing lockdown includes specific dates. Yours doesn’t. Has the Irish taoiseach jumped the gun?

Sturgeon says she does not know what advice the Irish government has had.

She says the government will have to make choices.

Updated

Sturgeon says Scotland is “at a critical moment”.

It can either continue making progress. Or else it might get to the point where lockdown measures have to be reimposed, she says.

Q: Could building sites be some of the first places to come out of lockdown?

Sturgeon says this is covered in the document. She will proceed at a pace that is safe.

Q: How do you respond to the Scottish secretary’s criticism of your approach? (See 11.17am.)

Sturgeon says she has sought to avoid partisan politics.

She says both the argument that Scotland has to follow the UK exactly, and the argument that it has to do its own thing, are wrong.

She will do what is right for Scotland, she says.

She says a Sunday paper (the Sunday Telegraph) said schools should open at the start of June.

She does not know what is right for England, she says.

But she says she cannot “hand on heart” say that would be safe for Scotland.

Q: The UK government has not published a document like this. Are they looking at ideas like this?

Sturgeon says she thinks governments around the world are all facing the same problems, and she says she thinks they are all looking at the same possible ways out.

But she says she does not know what Boris Johnson is considering.

She says she wants to come out of lockdown at the right pace. If that means doing it differently from the rest of the UK, that is what it should do. If that means doing it differently in different parts of Scotland, that would be right too.

Q: What advice do you have for businesses where social distancing is not possible?

Sturgeon says it has to be safe.

She says it might be possible to use PPE in some places where social distancing is not possible, like for hairdressers (an example cited by the questioner).

She says it may not be possible to introduce these measures now. But if they do the detailed work now, then relaxing measures later might be possible.

Updated

At her briefing Nicola Sturgeon is now taking questions.

Q: For how long do you need sustained evidence that R is below 1 before you can lift the lockdown measures?

Sturgeon says this is for the experts to advise on.

She says, whenever schools get opened, there will be an impact on the R number. But if R is 0.2, that won’t take you into the danger zone. If it is 0.8, it will.

She says in Denmark schools going back has led to the R number going up.

Fundamentally we have got to base these decisions on what the evidence in Scotland is telling us.

Q: What will the school year look like next year?

Sturgeon says the paper looks at options for different year groups.

There will need to be more social distancing, she says.

She says surfaces will have to be cleaned properly.

As for dates, she cannot say.

But, as soon as evidence develops, she will make that available to the public.

Updated

Deaths in Scotland rise by 44 to 1,620

A total of 1,620 patients have died in Scotland after testing positive for coronavirus, up by 44 from 1,576 on Monday, Nicola Sturgeon announced.

The first minister said 12,437 people had now tested positive for the virus in Scotland, up by 171 from 12,266 the day before.

There were 104 people in intensive care with coronavirus or coronavirus symptoms, an increase of five on yesterday, she added.

There are 1,656 people in hospital with confirmed or suspected Covid-19, a decrease of 64.

And since 5 March, 2,847 people who have tested positive for coronavirus have been able to leave hospital.

Updated

Here is the text of the new document (pdf) published by the Scottish government about its approach to relaxing the lockdown (or not).

The prime minister Boris Johnson taking a walk this morning in St James’s Park before returning to Downing Street.
The prime minister, Boris Johnson, taking a walk this morning in St James’s Park before returning to Downing Street. Photograph: PA

Updated

Immediate changes to universal credit are needed ahead of a potential second wave of claims when the government’s protection schemes come to a close next month, Citizens Advice has said.

Data released on Tuesday by the Department for Work and Pensions showed that 1.9 million households have made a claim for universal credit in the last two months. This equates to just under one in 10 working-age households in Great Britain.

While the rate of claims has tapered in recent weeks, the charity warns its frontline advisers are preparing for a potential rise in inquiries this summer. The job retention scheme is currently due to end on 30 June, which could precipitate further job losses.

Frontline advisers at Citizens Advice warn many people they support with universal credit can face hardship as a result of the five-week wait until their first payment, or risk getting into debt by taking out an advance payment.

Dame Gillian Guy, the charity’s chief executive, urged the government to turn advance payments into grants to avoid putting people at risk of debt. She said:

The dizzying number of universal credit claims since March is a grim reflection of just how many people have seen their income swept away by coronavirus.

Decisive action from the government means hundreds of thousands of claims have been processed. The next step is to support people during the five-week wait without putting them at risk of debt problems in the future.

With a potential second wave of claims looming, now is the time for the government to further strengthen the safety net by turning advance payments into grants.

Updated

Too early to reopen schools in Scotland, Scottish government says

The Scottish government has released a second framework document setting out plans for leaving lockdown, ahead of Nicola Sturgeon’s daily media briefing and emphasising the need for the public to engage with the ideas being considered.

It underlines the need for continuing caution, stating it is “almost certain” that lockdown will be extended on Thursday, the next review date for the regulations, but sets out some “illustrative examples” about how changes could be made.

It is particularly cautious about schools, stating:

We do not consider it likely that schools will reopen fully in the foreseeable future. Indeed, we are not yet certain that they can re-open at all in the near future.

Illustrating the dangers of re-opening primary and nursery schools too early, it shares modelling which suggest that, given the current level of infections and reinfection rates, “in the ‘most likely’ scenario, full re-opening [in May] would cause a resurgence in the virus such that hospital capacity in Scotland would be overwhelmed in less than two months”.

Explaining that the R number – the reinfection rate of the virus – remains too high to conclude that the virus has been suppressed in Scotland, the document states:

Our current best estimate is that about 26,000 people in Scotland are currently infective and R is likely to lie between 0.7 and 1.0.

It adds that there is some evidence that the currently R number in Scotland is slightly above that elsewhere in the UK.

The document also gives examples of some limited changes which could happen after the next review point, at the end of May, including allowing people to leave their home more often, or for longer; allowing people to meet with a small number of others in a self-contained “bubble”; resumption of some NHS screening services and social care support.

It also says the Scottish government is in talks with businesses and trade unions about safe return to work for employees in particular sectors, with the focus on construction, manufacturing and retail as well as outdoor and rural work.

Updated

Speaker reprimands PM for planning to make lockdown announcement on Sunday, outside Commons

Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons Speaker, is making a short statement.

Referring to media reports that Boris Johnson plans to announce how he plans to start relaxing the lockdown on Sunday, Hoyle says it is “a matter of regret” that the PM is doing it in this way. Major announcements of government policy should be made in the Commons first, he says.

UPDATE: This is what Hoyle said:

It’s been widely reported that the government will make a major announcement about the review of lockdown this Sunday.

I consider this a matter of regret. It is important that the press is kept informed but it is the duty of this house to hold the government to account, not the media.

Major government announcements should be made first in the house and this is as important as ever during this time of crisis.

Updated

The University of Edinburgh is to cut back heavily on its spending, furloughing staff, freezing building projects and blocking pay rises for higher-paid staff, after forecasting it could lose up to £150m a year during the coronavirus crisis.

Prof Peter Mathieson, the university’s principal, emailed its 15,000 staff on Tuesday morning to say it faces a “very real financial challenge” from an expected collapse in overseas student numbers, and the loss of rents, catering and events income.

In addition, in common with the funding crises across the universities sector, it needed to invest in moving teaching online to cope with the effects of social distancing regulations.

He warned the university, one of the largest and wealthiest in the UK, needed £90m a month to pay its salaries and operational costs, as well as cash reserves of £90m. Losses from the pandemic were likely to be between £70m and £150m a year until at least 2025, he said.

In August we start our next academic and financial year where we will face a significant financial challenge. We expect this to remain very real for at least the next 4-5 years.

Since research in the UK is not adequately funded, our ability to conduct the world-leading research which underpins our national and international standing depends on a cross-subsidy from those areas of our activity which generate surplus.

Only two main areas currently achieve significant surplus: income from international students and income from providing accommodation, catering and events. These are the two areas of our activity that are most threatened by the Covid-19 pandemic.

To save money, staff unable to work from home would be furloughed, with the government’s £2,500 per month topped up by the university; staff earning above £100,000 would not get any pay increases; all non-essential building work has been postponed; all non-critical staff appointments had been frozen. Mathieson added:

We will also look hard at non-staffing costs and will need to make significant savings there. Major efforts to increase income wherever possible will also be essential. Overall, the undeniable truth is that we will need to reshape and change how we deliver on our mission within the resource available.

Updated

These are from ITV’s political editor Robert Peston on one of the revelations in the latest batch of Sage papers published today.

There is some hope that UK cinemas could reopen as early as mid-July in time for the launch of the latest Christopher Nolan film, the boss of Vue has said.

Tim Richards, chief executive of the Vue Cinemas chain, said he is “hopeful” that cinemas can be open in time for the release date of Nolan’s new film, Tenet, on 17 July.

He told the BBC that the company was working with the government on ways the industry can operate while ensuring physical distancing. He said:

What we are trying to do is work with the government to demonstrate that we are not like sporting fixtures or music concerts.

We can actually control how many people go into our cinema at any given time. We have the ability to schedule our films separately and we have the ability to control entrances and exits for customers.

We have operating systems in place today which allow social distancing and cocooning within the cinema for couples, individuals or families who want to watch a movie.

The chain said it has learned significantly from the impact of the Sars outbreak on its Taiwanese operations between 2002 and 2004, and is prepared for “every possible eventuality, ranging from social distancing to restricted access”.

He said there will be a “demand like we’ve never seen before” for cinemas when they are reopened, highlighting the releases of Tenet, Minions, Mulan and the latest James Bond film, No Time To Die, later this year.

Vue is working with the government on ways the industry can operate while ensuring physical distancing, the chain’s boss said.
Vue is working with the government on ways the industry can operate while ensuring physical distancing, the chain’s boss said. Photograph: Ian West/PA

Updated

Painted pebbles showing support for the NHS and key workers with positive messages, which have been left by members of the public on Avon beach in Christchurch.
Painted pebbles showing support for the NHS and key workers with positive messages, which have been left by members of the public on Avon beach in Christchurch. Photograph: Andrew Matthews/PA

In the Commons Rosena Allin-Khan, a shadow health minister and practising doctor, asks Matt Hancock if he is committed to maintaining testing at the level of 100,000 tests per day.

Hancock says he has been transparent about how he has achieved this. He says he wants to see the numbers continue to rise. He says capacity for testing is now at 108,000 per day.

In the Commons Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is currently taking questions.

The Conservative MP Bob Neill asked him why care home managers are told if residents test positive for coronavirus, but not if staff members test positive. Neill said this information was withheld from managers on privacy grounds.

Hancock said he would look into this.

A housekeeper who went “above and beyond” in his work is the latest of at least four frontline workers at a single hospital to have died after contracting coronavirus.

Momudou “Mo” Dibba, who worked on Watford general hospital’s Letchmore and Lengley wards, died on 29 April after testing positive for Covid-19.

Nurses Ate Wilma Banaag and John Alagos and healthcare assistant Khalid Jamil also died while working on the hospital’s front line, and Stephanie Willocks, a former matron and ward sister at the hospital, also died after contracting the virus. She retired in 2005 but had been supporting the trust as a nursing mentor.

West Hertfordshire hospitals NHS trust said Dibba would often work extra shifts on reception after finishing his main job in the ward, and at weekends. The trust said in a statement:

Anyone who knew Mo would know how kind, caring and considerate he was to patients and staff.

He would go above and beyond for everyone, organising staff leaving parties and supporting everyone in their roles. He will be sorely missed.

Updated

Reopening schools prematurely could risk creating a rise in the transmission of Covid-19, teaching union leaders have warned.

The general secretaries of 10 trade unions across the UK and Ireland have written to the education ministers in all five jurisdictions urging “significant caution in any consideration of reopening schools”.

The letter, sent by the British and Irish Group of Teachers’ Unions on behalf of teachers, warns of the “very real risk of creating a spike in the transmission of the virus by a premature opening of schools”. It says:

We are convinced by the experience of other systems that a critical tool in preventing a surge of infection is an established capacity to ‘test, trace and isolate’ and we would argue that reopening schools before such a regime is in place would be catastrophic to the rate of infection.

The coalition of union leaders argues that schools can only reopen and operate safely if there are “significant operational changes” in place to ensure effective physical distancing, as well as strong hygiene routines and appropriate PPE where required.

It follows speculation that schools could be asked to reopen their doors to more pupils before the summer holidays.

Boris Johnson promised to deliver a “comprehensive plan” this week on how the UK lockdown may be eased and suggested that he would set out efforts to get children back to school.

Meanwhile, on Sunday, the Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, said schools in Wales could be allowed to reopen their doors from the start of June in a phased approach. And the Westminster education secretary, Gavin Williamson, has said schools in England will reopen in a “phased manner” after the lockdown “when it’s the right time” based on scientific and medical advice, but he has yet to set a date.

Updated

At the start of the Commons health committee hearing this morning Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, sought to clarify the remarks he made in mid-March about about how not totally suppressing coronavirus could allow the build-up of “herd immunity”. (See 9.29am.) Vallance said:

I should be clear about what I was trying to say, and if I didn’t say this clearly enough then I apologise. What I was trying to say was that, in the absence of a therapeutic, the way in which you can stop a community becoming susceptible to this is through immunity and immunity can be obtained by vaccination, or it can be obtained by people who have the infection.

Updated

Petrol prices have sunk to a four-year low with the average cost of a litre of the fuel at UK forecourts at 1.08, according to government data. It has not been this low since April 2016.

Diesel has also fallen in price, sinking to an average of 1.15 per litre, which is the lowest level since October 2016.

The drop in fuel prices has been driven by a bruising few months for oil. The price of a barrel of Brent crude fell from $64 at the start of the year to less than $19 in April, due largely to plummeting demand from a global economy hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

However, on Tuesday the price pushed back up towards $30, as lockdown measures start to ease around the world.

The number of UK motorists taking advantage of cheaper fuel is limited because of lockdown restrictions and fewer people leaving the home. Indeed, Department for Transport figures show that road traffic is around 58% lower than in early February.

Updated

Nick Stripe, head of health analysis at the ONS, told the BBC it was “reassuring” to see the overall number of deaths had slightly dropped, but cautioned that the number of excess deaths in the week ending 24 April was still the second highest since records began in 1993.

Over the last five weeks where data has been recorded, he calculated there have been around 42,000 deaths above average in the UK.

He said the timing of these death registrations meant these were largely deaths that took place up to around 20-21 April, adding:

That’s about four to five weeks after the lockdown was first advised, and then instructed, so if you think about the timeline of the disease it’s often about three to four weeks from becoming infected to, sadly, death.

We would kind of expect to see that impact of the lockdown now, so it’s reassuring to see that the number of deaths have slightly dropped from that very high peak.

Updated

Summary

These are from Henry Lau, a data visualisation expert at the ONS, with more on today’s ONS report on the weekly death figures.

Painted pebbles with positive messages showing support for the NHS and key workers, which have been left by members of the public on Avon beach in Christchurch.
Painted pebbles with positive messages showing support for the NHS and key workers, which have been left by members of the public on Avon beach in Christchurch. Photograph: Andrew Matthews/PA

McDonald’s has unveiled the location of the 15 restaurants it plans to reopen for deliveries next Wednesday, after the fast-food giant closed all its sites in March at the start of the lockdown.

The stores, which are clustered around London and the south-east, will offer a limited menu, including some vegetarian options, delivered within their local areas between 11am and 10pm.

Staff will be asked to be extra careful about physical distancing measures and the restaurants will undergo deep-cleaning with floor markings and Perspex screens installed, the business said.

The following restaurants will reopen on 13 May
- Chelmsford Riverside
- Chelmsford Westway
- Ipswich Cardinal Park
- Boreham Interchange
- Luton Leagrave
- Watford Hertfordshire Arms
- Chaul End Lane, Luton
- Beechings Way, Gillingham
- Sittingbourne Retail Park
- Gillingham Bowaters
- Tooting
- Dalston
- Welling
- Harrow
- Luton George Street

Updated

Boris Johnson taking a walk in St James’ Park this morning.
Boris Johnson taking a walk in St James’ Park this morning. Photograph: PA

Drivers whose MOTs are due during the pandemic shutdown will enjoy a one-year exemption, a minister in Northern Ireland has said.

It would not be possible to accommodate the backlog as well as conduct normal business at testing centres, infrastructure minister Nichola Mallon said.

Drivers will instead apply for MOTs as normal next year. Mallon said:

I have decided the Driver and Vehicle Agency (DVA) will continue to issue temporary exemption certificates (TECs) to those vehicles, private cars, goods vehicles, trailers or motorcycles until their normal MOT date.

This means a vehicle will get an exemption for one year which will bring it back into the system when there is capacity to test it.

On 24 March, in the interest of public safety and to tackle the spread of coronavirus, the DVA suspended all vehicle testing for three months, until 22 June.

In the health committee Jeremy Hunt, the chair, is wrapping up. But he has one final question.

Q: What are the chances of a second wave? 70/80%, ie fairly inevitable?

Vallance says, if we do test, track and trace well, and maintain social distancing, we should be able to avoid a second peak.

But he adds one caveat; when winter comes, you will have flu circulating, he says.

And that’s it. The health committee hearing is over.

In lighter news, the comedian Jason Manford has said he was turned down for a job at Tesco that he applied for earlier on in the pandemic “when it looked like supermarkets etc were going to need thousands of extra hands”.

Q: How far are we from having a widespread antibody test?

Vallance says reliable laboratory-based tests are already available.

Q: Why was Atletico Madrid v Liverpool match allowed to go ahead in Liverpool on 11 March when it would not have been allowed in Spain?

Harries says that was not a decision for the chief medical officers.

Good morning everyone. I’m Lucy Campbell, joining the blog for the rest of the day to bring you all the latest developments on coronavirus in the UK. If you’d like to get in touch with news tips or comments, advice and suggestions, please feel free to do so via the usual channels.

Email: lucy.campbell@theguardian.com
Twitter: @lucy_campbell_

Q: What is the risk of a second peak being caused by people coming to the UK with infections from other parts of the world, where coronavirus has hit later?

Vallance says Sage looked at this recently. At that point it thought just 0.5% of infections might come in from abroad. But that might change as the case numbers in the UK go down, he says.

Vallance says the idea that you could control this outbreak by stopping travel from one place would not work.

He says the advice from Sage was that either very draconian travel restrictions had to be imposed, or else it was not worth it.

Vallance says testing capacity should have been expanded sooner

Back in the health committee, Vallance and Harries are asked what they would have done differently.

Vallance says he is sure there are lots of things. He says it is standard in clinical practice to think how you could have done something better.

He says:

In the early phases, if we had managed to ramp testing capacity quicker, it would have been beneficial.

For all sorts of reasons that did not happen. And I think it’s clear you need lots of testing for this.

But he says Harries was right to say testing on its own does not provide the solution.

He says there will be plenty of opportunity to consider what might have been done better.

Going forward, different countries will try different things. That amounts to an experiment, he says.

But he says different countries have different characteristics.

He says it is not chance that two big, cosmopolitan cities - London and New York - have been hit badly.

I don’t think it’s chance that two huge cosmopolitan well-connected cities with multiple imports from all over the world - New York and London - got very hard hit.

What works in Iceland won’t necessarily work in other places, he says.

Harries says the plan was sensible.

But we are in a different world now, she says. She says perhaps we have not thought through the digital aspects of this enough in our planning.

She says we have learned from previous incidents.

Updated

As Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, prepares to set out further detail of her plans for easing lockdown restrictions, with specific scenarios for the NHS, schools and businesses, Boris Johnson’s Scottish secretary, Alister Jack, has urged the country to leave lockdown “in lockstep” with the rest of the UK.

“If we can present a simple, clear, united message, it will be much more effective,” he writes in the Scottish Daily Mail.

Re-tweeted approvingly by Jacob Rees-Mogg, Jack goes on to criticise the Scottish government for shutting down building sites, which has not happened in the rest of the UK, arguing it is having “a disastrous impact on the Scottish building industry”, and goes on to “applaud businesses, such as the famous shortbread baker Walkers, on Speyside, who used a brief shutdown to figure out safe working practices and who are now back up and running as best they can”.

Updated

Here is our story on the ONS figures, by Matthew Weaver and Nicola Davis.

And this is how it starts.

The UK now has the highest death toll in Europe from coronavirus after new official figures revealed that more than 32,000 people have died from the virus.

The Office for National Statistics said 29,648 deaths had taken place by 27 April in England and Wales with Covid-19 mentioned in death certificates.

With the addition of deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland, this takes the UK’s death toll to 32,313, according to calculations by Reuters.

This figure far exceeds the death toll of 29,029 in Italy – until now Europe’s worst-hit country. Italy’s total does not include suspected cases.

Turning back to the latest ONS weekly death figures (see 9.39am and 10.54am), here are the figures from the detailed data published alongside the ONS report showing where people died with coronavirus in the week ending 24 April.

Hospital deaths - 4,841

Care homes - 2,794

At home - 423

Hospices - 110

Other community settings - 44

Elsewhere - 25

That means 59% of coronavirus deaths that week were taking place in hospital, and 34% in care homes.

Back in the health committee, Harries is asked why BAME people seems to be dying disproportionately from coronavirus.

Harries says that, once you make allowance for underlying health conditions - conditions like diabetes, that are more prevalent in people from a BAME background - it gets hard to assess what other factors might be relevant.

She says deprivation and cultural differences could be factors.

Turning back to the the ONS latest weekly death figures (see 9.39am), here is the top of the news story from PA Media.

Care home deaths linked to coronavirus have increased by more than 2,500 in the space of a week, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

There were 5,890 coronavirus-related care home deaths registered up to April 24 in England and Wales, up from just over 3,000 the week before, the Office for National Statistics said.

Of deaths involving coronavirus up to that point, 19,643 (71.8%) took place in hospitals and 7,713 were elsewhere.

Of these: 5,890 took place in care homes, 1,306 took place in private homes, 301 took place in hospices, 105 took place in other communal establishments, and 111 elsewhere.

Hunt is still asking the questions.

Q: Do you still think it was right to give up community testing on 12 March? At the time you said that was not an appropriate intervention.

Harries says the issue is: what capacity the country has?

If the country had an endless capacity for testing, then it might have been right to carry on.

But it is not just testing; you have to look at the capacity to introduce other measures, she says.

She says in Germany the population affected was younger. And in South Korea the outbreaks were very localised.

If you had unlimited capacity, and resources beyond that, then a different approach would have been possible, she says.

Q: But South Korea is closer to virus. They had a super-spreader. And Germany is closer to Italy, and they got this before us. At a No 10 press conference, when asked about the WHO ‘test, test, test’ advice, you said it did not apply to rich countries.

Harries says she would like to clarify what she said. At that point some countries were not testing at all. The WHO was saying they should. She says she was not saying rich countries did not need to test.

But you have to balance your resources, she says.

She says the broad number of tests carried out in Germany has been the same as in Italy. So it is not testing alone that matters. It is the follow-up actions that count too.

Q: Did you tell the government on 12 March that it should be increasing its testing capacity?

Harries says she would not have given that advice personally. But, as the government moved from contain to delay, the intention was to focus testing on where it was most valuable.

She says, when the disease is under control, testing then becomes more important.

Updated

Back at the health committee Jeremy Hunt, the chair, turns to the death figures. He addresses Prof Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer for England.

Q: Why does the UK’s death rate appear so much higher than other European countries’.

Harries says we need to wait until the pandemic is over before we can do a robust comparison. Different countries report deaths in different ways, she says. That makes comparing them “extremely difficult”.

She says one way to compare them would be an age-standardised death rate per head of population.

But countries do not report figures in this manner, she says.

Updated

Turning back to the ONS latest weekly death figures (see 9.39am), this is from PA Media, where they have been looking at the figures in more detail.

Today’s ONS figures also show there were 29,710 deaths involving Covid-19 in England and Wales up to April 24 (and which were registered up to May 2), compared with 22,173 deaths of people in England and Wales testing positive for Covid-19 reported by the Department of Health & Social Care for the same period.

The ONS total is 34% higher than the Department of Health total.

This is because the ONS figures include all mentions of Covid-19 on a death certificate, including suspected Covid-19, and are based on the date that deaths occurred.

The Department of Health figures are based on when deaths were reported and are for deaths where a person has been tested positive for Covid-19.

Vallance says the risk to children is much, much lower than to adults.

But he says it is less clear whether children are just not getting the infection, or whether they are getting it but not showing symptoms.

Updated

Q: Does R have to be falling in regions for the lockdown measures to be lifted?

Vallance says R does not vary much. It might be 0.6 in London, and 0.7 elsewhere.

One option would be to relax measures locally. There are pros and cons, he says. But you would have to control travel between regions.

Q: Is there more risk to regions with low levels of infection, and hence low levels of immunity, from the lockdown being relaxed early?

Vallance says there might be 10% antibody positivity in London. And in other places it might be 3 or 4%, he says. But he says the work on this is still ongoing.

He does not think it is higher than in the mid teens anywhere.

He says that means there is nowhere where a large proportion of people might be immune.

Updated

Q: Has Sage ever given government just one option?

Vallance says he doubts that Sage has ever given the government just one option.

Back in the health committee, Vallance is asked if Sage always agrees on the advice it gives to ministers.

Vallance says ministers make policy. Sage does not make policy. He says ministers make policy informed by the scientific advice.

Q: But do you reach a consensus?

Vallance says Sage does not just give ministers 16 different opinions.

It tries to set out options.

But it also explains the uncertainty surrounding those options.

Updated

Science advisers want lockdown measures lifted 'very gradually', Sage paper reveals

Here is an extract from the Sage paper (pdf) prepared for a meeting on 2 April. The note is dated 1 April.

The paper advises that the lockdown restrictions should be lifted “very gradually”. It says:

To avoid these problems we would advocate trialling easing restrictions very gradually when epidemiologically indicated while clearly explaining why these particular activities are being resumed and how risks must be controlled if these activities are to be maintained. This will also allow an opportunity to gather epidemiological evidence about the impact of easing the restriction and be used to provide evidence to the public about the impact of that restriction. To maintain public trust and support it will be important to have acceptable and equitable criteria for selecting which activities can be resumed. For example, it may be difficult to justify easing restrictions solely for economic activities without any easing of restrictions for low risk activities with significant social and psychological benefit.

Updated

Vallance says evidence in favour of masks protecting public 'marginal but positive'

Back in the health committee Vallance is now talking about masks.

He says the evidence suggests that, in terms of preventing wearers from spreading coronavirus to others, the evidence in favour of masks or face coverings is “marginal but positive”.

In healthcare settings there is a strong case for masks, he says.

He says when people are outdoors, the risk is generally low.

But he says there are circumstances in which masks can be useful. He says the risk of infection at one metre away from an infected source is 10 to 30 times higher than at two metres.

UPDATE: HuffPost has a story with the full quote from Vallance. He said:

The two metre distancing is based on a probability.

The evidence is, as far as you can get very firm evidence on this, that essentially that a minute at two metres contact is about the same risk as six seconds at one metre.

So that gives you some idea of why two metres becomes important.

The risk at one metre is about 10 to 30 times higher than the risk at two metres.

Updated

Some highlights from latest Sage documents

Here are some lines from the Sage documents published this morning picked up already by journalists. These are from the BBC’s Adam Fleming, the Times’ Chris Smyth, and Nick Eardley and David Shukman from the BBC.

Updated

Vallance says he is thinking of setting up a sub-group of Sage to look at the economics of the crisis.

But he says Sage should not try to be the sum of all knowledge.

Government needs to consider advice from other policy perspectives, he says.

Q: Is excess deaths the best measure of the impact of coronavirus?

Vallance agrees. He says there was an excellent article in the Guardian recently making this point by Prof David Spiegelhalter, a statistician.

Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, praised the same article at a Downing Street briefing last week. It’s here.

Greg Clark, the chair of the Commons science committee, who is contributing to this hearing, goes next.

Vallance tells him he wants to get into a “more regular” rhythm of publishing Sage papers. They should not come out only every month. He suggests perhaps every two weeks, with papers being published on a set date.

But some papers do not belong to the committee, he says. They come from academics who want to be able to publish them in the usual way.

Jeremy Hunt, the chair, says he wants to know why Vallance thought it was wrong to introduce a lockdown when the R was between 2 and 3, if now the priority is to keep it below 1.

Vallance says it is more acceptable to have a higher R if the number of cases is smaller.

There was a “very rapid” escalation of the numbers in March. And the doubling time suddenly became quicker. That is why the lockdown was essential, he says.

Q: The government says it follows the scientific advice. Do you accept that Sage advice must be published?

Vallance says he believes in transparency. Sage is publishing information. It has published more this morning. (See 9.25am.)

But he says ministers also need advice to make decisions, and they should be able to consider that advice before it has been made public.

Updated

Vallance says he is in 'no doubt' some things should have been done differently

Q: Do you still think it was right to delay lockdown?

Vallance says this is a new disease. We are still learning about it.

As for whether we should have done something differently, he says that is a judgment for later. But he says he is in “no doubt” that some things should have been done differently.

He says maybe changing the timing by a few days may have made a difference.

UPDATE: Here is the full quote from Vallance in response to the question.

In terms of what would I do in retrospect, if we knew then what we know now, I think that’s something for the future to look at and certainly there will be times when evidence didn’t allow decisions to be made that you could make now, and there’ll be times at which you look back and say that something might have been done differently, I’ve got no doubt about that.

When you look at everything that happened, the speed at which it happened, maybe days either way would have made a difference, but I think it’s difficult to look back and say three weeks was an obvious point to do it, I don’t think that was clear, I don’t think it’s clear now.

Updated

Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, has now started giving evidence to the Commons health committee.

He said the best estimate of the reproduction number of coronavirus (R - the infectivity rate) is between 0.6 and 0.9.

Asked if people who have had it acquire immunity, he said the vast majority of people who had it had acquired antibodies. But he said it was not clear yet how much immunity this gave people. He said “some degree of protection” would be expected, but that this would “almost certainly” not provide absolute immunity.

Updated

Latest ONS death figures show more than 11,000 excess deaths per week in mid April

The Office for National Statistics has just published its latest weekly death figures. Here are are the main points.

  • There were 21,997 deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 24 April. That is 11,539 more than the average for this time of year, but a decrease of 354 on the previous week.
  • Some 37.4% of deaths in that week involved coronavirus (in that it was mentioned on the death certificate).
  • The number of deaths in care homes (from all causes) was 7,911, up 595 on the previous week. That was almost as high as the of deaths in hospitals, which was 8,243, down 1,191 on the previous week.

MPs question Patrick Vallance, government's chief scientific adviser

Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, is about to give evidence to the Commons health committee alongside Prof Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer for England.

I’ll be covering the hearing in detail.

As usual, there is a good scene-setter in Jack Blanchard’s London Playbook briefing. Here is an excerpt.

Following the herd: Vallance is the most senior government figure to have openly discussed the now-notorious concept of “herd immunity” back in those heady pre-lockdown days of mid-March. At the March 12 presser, he said of the virus: “Our aim is not to stop everyone getting it, you can’t do that. And it’s not desirable, because you want to get some immunity in the population. We need to have immunity to protect ourselves from this in the future.” He fleshed this idea out on BBC Radio 4 the following morning, stating: “Our aim is to try and reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not to suppress it completely. Also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some degree of herd immunity as well, so that more people are immune to this disease.”

Reminder: The government now claims herd immunity was never its aim.

Government publishes new batch of coronavirus papers from Sage

The government has just released a large batch of papers from Sage, its Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. There are a mix of notes about meetings, from 4 February to 14 April, and background papers considered by the group.

The full set is available here.

Agenda for the day

Here are main items on the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, and Prof Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer for England, give evidence to the Commons health committee.

9.30am: The Office for National Statistics publishes its latest weekly death figures.

12pm: Matt Hancock, the health and social care secretary, takes questions in the Commons. At 12.30 he will also answer an urgent question on coronavirus.

12pm: Downing Street is expected to hold its daily lobby briefing.

12.30pm: The Scottish and Welsh governments are due to hold their daily coronavirus briefings.

2.30pm: Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, gives evidence to the Lords EU committee about the Brexit trade talks.

2.30pm: The NFU president, Minette Batters, gives evidence to the Commons environment committee.

5pm: The UK government is expected to hold its daily coronavirus briefing.

The Scottish government’s clinical director, Jason Leitch, says that the Covid-19 tracing app currently being trialled on the Isle of Wight will only be used in Scotland if he is confident that the public’s data is secure. He told BBC Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland:

Scotland is involved in its development, but we want to be sure of the security, and that it will work, before we layer it on top of what we’re already planning. We don’t want to build from it, we want to use it as an additional element.

We will only recommend this app when and if we are happy that not only does the Bluetooth functionality work, but secondly is it secure and will your data be secure? We don’t require it for contact tracing to work.

Leitch reiterated what the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, set out at her media briefing on Monday, that the Scottish government is currently working on a Scottish version of digital test, trace, isolate – which may be in app or web form - to help with booking a test, getting the result and also allowing individuals to enter their contacts. But then a human being will be involved who will get in touch and ask people to describe their day in order to identify contacts.

Updated

Labour sets out seven principles for relaxing lockdown

Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Matthew Weaver.

As reported already, Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, has been giving interviews this morning calling for a national consensus on relaxing the lockdown. (See 7.26am.)

Starmer has also set out seven principles that he says should govern policy on relaxing the lockdown. Here they are, as set out by Labour (although I have added the numbers).

1 - Keeping people safe by enforcing a “national safety standard” for businesses, schools and other public services to show that they are safe to use and work in. This standard should be developed and delivered in consultation with business groups, trade unions and other relevant organisations.

2 - Mass expansion of community testing and tracing by stating when the government will hit its daily testing target of 250,000 and recruiting 50,000 people as contact tracers, alongside the use of any workable apps and technology ...

3 - Protect key and essential workers by publishing a national plan to ensure supply chains are developed that guarantee personal protective equipment and facial covering to those who need it. Additional support should also be made available to protect staff’s physical and mental wellbeing.

4 - Support people’s livelihoods, jobs and businesses by introducing bespoke support for people and industries facing significant challenges, such as the hospitality sector, the self-employed and unemployed.

5 - Structured approach to easing and tightening restrictions. Any easing of restrictions should have advance warning to allow planning and be done in conjunction with all nations, regions, local authorities and elected mayors. To maintain public confidence and safety, the government should be clear that it would rapidly reintroduce targeted restrictions where necessary, should R increase towards one, and spell out how it would do it.

6 - National vaccines plan setting out how the government intends to ensure the manufacture and distribution of any resulting vaccine ...

7 - Preparations for winter flu. Ministers must urgently publish a national plan for the winter flu season.

Government sources have said Starmer is asking for things that are happening already.

Updated

Doctors at the UK’s only treatment centre for homeless people have warned of a potentially massive coronavirus outbreak without more such facilities.

Sir Keir Starmer says Labour wants the contact tracing app to work.

He told Today:

I think the whole country wants the trial to succeed because testing, and tracing is going to be crucial to the easing of restrictions. I want to see the trials succeed. I hope it does. I’m a bit concerned that a similar app in Singapore only had, something like a 20% take up rate. So we’re going to have to have a traditional way of tracing as well which is doing it all manually because if you put all your eggs in the basket of this particular app, a) it might not work or b) maybe not enough take it up.

Asked about privacy he said:

It’s not that I don’t have any concerns. At the moment my main concern is protecting lives, and safeguarding our economy.

The number of tests needs to go much higher than they are at the moment. At the moment we’re testing those on the front line broadly speaking key workers, and other vulnerable groups. If we’re to get to test and trace we need to add to that – everybody in the country who has got symptoms and everybody who has been in contact with anyone who’s got symptoms [needs to be tested].

Starmer did not deny that he had requested the resignation of Labour’s general secretary Jenny Formby, a key ally of Jeremy Corbyn. “It was a mutual agreement,” he said.

Hancock: 'do your duty download the app'

Hancock also suggested the public have a “duty” to install the contact-tracing app on their smartphones.

“If you download the app you are doing your duty and you’re helping save lives,” he told BBC Breakfast.

Updated

Matt Hancock has insisted there is “high privacy” in the coronavirus contact-tracing app.

He said a user’s phone will store anonymously the information about all the phones it has been within two metres of for more than 15 minutes in the previous few days.

He said one of the aspects being tested in the trial on the Isle of Wight is whether the best thing is for someone who gets a message saying they have been in contact with someone with symptoms should self-isolate “in case you develop the symptoms”.

He told BBC Breakfast:

This is one of the reasons that we want to test it to ensure that we get the rules right around what we advise people to do as soon as the contact tracing pings you.

The Health Service Journal reported that the app had so far failed tests needed to be included in the NHS app library.

There are also concerns at high levels about how users’ privacy will be protected once they log that they have coronavirus symptoms, and become “traceable”, and how this information will be used.

Senior figures told HSJ that it had been hard to assess the app because the government was “going about it in a kind of a hamfisted way. They haven’t got clear versions, so it’s been impossible to get fixed code base from them for NHS Digital to test. They keep changing it all over the place.”

HSJ’s source described the app as “a bit wobbly”, but added that it was not a “big disaster” the app will not be included in the official NHS store at this stage, because it is at an early development stage. However, they also expressed concern about whether it will be able to pass in the near future.

The government insisted the HSJ report was untrue.

Updated

Labour’s leader, Keir Starmer, said that just as there was a consensus going into lockdown, there should be consensus coming out.

Speaking to ITV’s Good Morning Britain he said:

I sense that people are really worried about lifting of lockdown. They’re really worried about going back to work. They need a high level of reassurance.

The point that trade unions have raised is safety at work and there was a consultation document the government put out last weekend which was pretty vague, and it needs strengthening.

That’s why one of the principles I’ve set out today is a national safety standard.

I think people will want to know [is]: if I’m going back to work, is it a safe environment, what’s being done about social distancing, what are the hand-washing facilities, if I need protective equipment am I going to get it?

It’s that degree of reassurance.

This is not just a reassurance exercise for those going back to work, it’s essential for the safety of the nation.

If you don’t have the protective equipment, and that means that people get infected, we’re going to be right back where we started.

He said protective equipment for workers is not a “luxury item” that would be “nice to have”.

Updated

The health secretary, Matt Hancock, has defended the decision to build the contact-tracing app from scratch and decline offers of help from Google and Apple.

Speaking to Sky News he said:

We’ve been working with Apple and Google. The reason that we’re doing it the way we are is because we’ll be able to spot flare-ups in the app right across the country.

The proposal they’ve got doesn’t have that capability. And so it doesn’t help us as much as what we’re bringing forward.

Hancock also conceded that more discussions would need to take place with trade unions and employers to ensure that workplaces are safe to return to when the lockdown is eased.

He said:

It’s critical that employers offer safe workplaces. We’ve been working with employers, large and small, and trade unions on getting these details right. There’s further discussions going on this week, so that as and when more people can get back to work there are guidelines and rules in place to make sure that workplaces can have safe distancing in the workplace.

Hancock did not rule out imposing sanctions on employers who fail to offer safe work places, but he refused to go into details.

Updated

The Isle of Wight Tory MP, Bob Seely, urged people in his constituency to back the new coronavirus contact-tracing app being piloted on the island.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he said:

I think there is a great deal of interest. Talking to the experts and the scientists, anything above 20% and 25% gives us decent and good data.

The exponential benefit hits when you get about 50%, or near that, and then, effectively, you can trace the virus. Then, by helping those people with it, we starve the virus of other people to infect and the virus dies out.

Updated

Starmer calls for national consensus on easing lockdown

Welcome to our UK coronavirus live blog. Council and NHS workers on the Isle of Wight will be the first to try out the new contact-tracing app as the trial on the island gets under way on Tuesday

If successful the app will be rolled out across the UK as ministers hope will form a key part of their strategy for easing the lockdown.

Meanwhile, the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, has called for a “national consensus” on easing the restrictions, amid concerns that lifting the measures could put some workers at risk.

Starmer said “People rightly need confidence that it’s safe before they go back out to work, travel or use public services.” He called for a “national safety standard” for businesses, schools and public services, with clear guidelines on social distancing.

Later on Tuesday morning two of the government’s leading coronavirus experts will be questioned by MPs. The chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, and England’s deputy chief medical officer, Jenny Harries will appear before the Commons health and social care committee at 9.30am.

Updated

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