MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC on ESPN 52.
UFC on ESPN 52 takes place Saturday at Moody Center in Austin, Texas. The main card airs on ESPN following prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 5-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 117-79-6
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Punahele Soriano (-290) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+225)
Kicking off the main card in Austin is a middleweight matchup between Punahele Soriano and Dustin Stoltzfus.
Despite both men coming off rough losses, this feels like a classic “get right” spot for Soriano.
Aside from Soriano having a clear athletic advantage and skill ceiling, Stoltzfus seems to struggle when striking with southpaws (currently standing at 0-2 against UFC-level lefties).
Dustin Stoltzfus, who faces Punahele Soriano at #UFCAustin, is officially 0-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing to G. Meerschaert and K. Daukaus)
Stoltzfus likes to shift stances in order to match southpaws but counter crosses seem to be the common culprit. #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/yH9rm6xQh8
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) December 1, 2023
For that reason, I’ll side with Soriano to get back on track with a first-round knockout.
Joaquim Silva (-355) vs. Clay Guida (+270)
Filling out the main card on ESPN is a lightweight fight between Joaquim Silva and Clay Guida.
As amazing as it is to see Guida still competing in 2023, I have a hard time siding with the veteran here.
Not only is Silva the superior striker and athlete, but the 34-year-old also keeps a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in his back pocket that will likely serve him well against the American.
I’ll pick Silva to keep things standing until he eventually scores a club-and-sub in round 2.
Sean Brady (-118) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-104)
Serving as a welterweight welcoming committee, Sean Brady will welcome Kelvin Gastelum back to 170 pounds.
Even though Gastelum hasn’t fought in this division since 2016, the Mexican-American appears to be in the shape of his life heading into this contest.
Brady is a strong welterweight who garnered decent hype over the years, but I’m still not sold on his striking ability or pacing.
For that reason, I’ll side with Gastelum’s southpaw savvy and output to allow him to pull away down the stretch for a decision win.
Rob Font (-138) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+112)
In what’s arguably one of the most anticipated fights on this card, Deiveson Figueiredo is moving up to 135 pounds to meet Rob Font.
Although Figueiredo is a fighter whom I’ve hailed as a natural bantamweight for some time now, Font presents a tall test in more ways than one.
Aside from the fact that Font is huge for the division and durable as all hell, the New England Cartel member is also a diligent jabber with giant fists in tow.
Lead hand work from Rob Font #UFCVegas27 pic.twitter.com/PQ7gQLzRiY
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) May 20, 2021
That said, fighters who consistently counter and work the body have traditionally troubled Font throughout his UFC tenure.
Figueiredo may have eaten a decent amount of jabs in his series with Brandon Moreno, the former champion also displayed a decent amount of counters to said shots.
If Figueiredo can return to his top form due to not having to make a drastic weight cut to 125 pounds, then I think he has a decent shot as an underdog against Font.
My heart is with the deserved favorite in Font, but I’ll semi-reluctantly take a flier on Figueiredo to score a shocking submission win in the first round.
Bobby Green (+172) vs. Jailin Turner (-215)
The co-main event in Austin features an impromptu lightweight affair between Bobby Green and Jailin Turner.
If Turner weren’t taking this fight on roughly one week’s notice, then I’d probably pick him to win.
Not only is Turner massive for the division, but his southpaw counters are something that has traditionally troubled Green in the past.
That said, Green is not beyond being taxed by southpaw kicks or classic SP counters like check hooks and counter crosses…
The biggest difference makers regardless of stance seem to be ability to corral Green along the cage and extend combinations. #UFCAustin #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/HLJfCtnDF9
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) December 1, 2023
That said, extended combinations appear to give both parties trouble – and that’s something that Green does in spades.
Unless Turner can get Green out of there in the first round, then I believe that the weight cut and pace will be too much for “The Tarantula” to overcome.
It feels like a chancier pick than it should be, but I’ll take Green to stop Turner with strikes by round 3.
Beneil Dariush (+225) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (-290)
The main event on ESPN is an important matchup between ranked lightweights, Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, this fight could be a lot more competitive than meets the eye.
Although I can understand why Tsarukyan is favored, I can’t ignore his propensity to dip to the power side of a southpaw due to his wrestle-boxing archetype.
#TheSouthpawReport cont…
Tsarukyan tends to get better as the bout goes on and will look to punctuate with kicks from his favored lead side (though spin kicks to the closed side is risky)
That said: death, taxes and wrestle-boxers dipping into southpaw kicks & knees #UFCAustin pic.twitter.com/s0TDo7QNOm
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) November 29, 2023
Add in the fact that Dariush is deceptively difficult to take down or control, and I suspect that this fight is up for grabs – at least early.
I give Tsarukyan a decent edge in the latter rounds, but I’ll take a flier on the underdog in Dariush to upset the applecart with a second-round knockout.
