MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 2.
UFC on ESPN 2 takes place Saturday at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. The event airs on ESPN following early prelims on ESPN+.
Edson Barboza (20-6 MMA, 14-6 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 33 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 75″
- Last fight: KO win over Dan Hooker (Dec. 15, 2018)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Multiple muay Thai accolades
^ Record of 25-3 (22 by KO)
+ 12 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Good feints and footwork
+ Improved boxing technique
^ Jabs, pivots, check-hooks, etc.
+ Devastating leg kicks
+ Accurate spinning attacks
+ Underrated counter wrestling
+ Solid butterfly guard
^ Good getup urgency
Justin Gaethje (19-2 MMA, 2-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 30 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 71″
- Last fight: KO win over James Vick(Aug. 25, 2018)
- Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver, Co.)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ WSOF lightweight title
+ NCAA Division 1 All-American wrestler
+ 16 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Heavy hooks, uppercuts and overhands
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Good hips and dirty boxing
+ Strikes well off the break
+ Excellent wrestling and scrambling ability
+/- Propensity to brawl
Point of interest: King of the leg kicks
The main event in Philadelphia features a pairing of two devastating strikers who may both stand alone in regards to their ability to do damage to their opponent’s lower extremities.
Storming onto the UFC scene with thunderous leg kicks, Edson Barboza became renowned for his initial impressions of violence that reminded fans why they shouldn’t step inside the octagon. After a few years of mixed success, Barboza made his way up to New Jersey to train with Mark Henry, a coach who quietly helped him improve his footwork and fundamentals within the boxing realm.
From hitting pivots to stepping off to the appropriate sides, the Brazilian has done a much better job of facilitating his punches and overall offense. Barboza has always possessed an underrated counter right-hand but has since developed his left hand under said upgrades.
Throwing his jab with much more efficiency, it is the improvements of Barboza’s check-hook that may serve him particularly well in this fight. Utilizing the check-hook to punch out of exchanges or catch opponents coming in, I suspect it may come in handy against the engagements of a borderline marauding madman.
Enter Justin Gaethje.
A man who may own the most violent and financially fruitful four-fight start in UFC history, Gaethje has also developed a habit of using leg assaults to add to the drama of his contests.
A relentless forward mover, Gaethje embodies the phrase “a bull in a china shop” with his unabashed aggression and hardwiring to inflict damage. Doing his best work when on the attack, Gaethje will gain his opponent’s respect with hard hooks and crosses, looking to punctuate his presence with crushing uppercuts and leg kicks when appropriate.
Like a Spartan to his shield in a phalanx, Gaethje relies heavily upon his double-forearm guard, planting and looking to counter with immediacy.
However, outside of his shelling defense, the 30-year-old has admittedly shown little regard for what comes back at him in the past, something that is reflected by his statistics in the strikes absorbed department. Given Gaethje’s opposition at hand (coupled with the results of previous UFC outings), I will be curious to see if any adjustments are applied this time out.
Next point of interest: Pressure pit
Point of interest: Pressure pit
No matter where this fight takes place, I believe that pressure could play a consistent role in the chaos.
Pressure is not only an inherent part of Gaethje’s game, but has also been the target when game planning for someone like Barboza – who has traditionally struggled against pressure fighters who have the ability to wrestle.
However, since Barboza’s early encounters with wrestlers the likes of Jamie Varner and Danny Castillo, the ten-year pro has steadily strengthened his counter wrestling acumen. Even in his recent fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov – a fighter who can seemingly out-wrestle the entire lightweight lot – Barboza was still able to contest with his counterparts underhooks, creating enough space for separations despite being dead tired in the final frame.
Nevertheless, I’m not sure the Brazilian will be dealing with the same type of wrestling threat in Gaethje – a fighter who is seemingly dead-set on using his abilities to stand or scramble to safety.
So, with that in mind, I don’t suspect any drastic changes in Gaethje’s style, but I, like many, wonder if the former NCAA Division-1 All-American will ever dust off his wrestling shoes to help balance out his attack. Though I wouldn’t mind seeing more shots mixed into Gaethje’s approach (as it could further open up his striking opportunities), I also can’t help but imagine the game planners around him ignoring the opportunity for this fight in particular.
That said, even if Gaethje does look to sprinkle in takedowns, keeping Barboza down is no easy investment.
Among the Brazilian’s ability to use the cage to stand, Barboza also wields an underrated butterfly guard that he utilizes well to help him create space. Whether he is against the fence or working from a modified guard, I imagine that Barboza has only continued to fill in these holes during his time spent at his new home of American Top Team.
But if grappling offense fails to materialize for either party, then expect things to get ugly inside of the clinch – a place where I suspect Gaethje will bully toward.
An unforgiving clinch fighter, Gaethje has the hip triggers to shut down deep takedown attempts while still maintaining the aggressive wherewithal to throw uppercuts and leg kicks in small spaces, consistently striking and making his opposition pay off the breaks. Barboza is more than competent inside of the clinch, but will need to be extra mindful when looking for his separations.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the more tenured UFC fighter, listing Barboza -135 and Gaethje +115 as of this writing.
Even if you disagree with the favorite on the betting lines, this matchup is justifiably close for a reason. Both men are heavy-hitting strikers who have a tendency to find themselves in wars, something that this matchup is clearly catering to. And though many are curious to see if Gaethje makes any adjustments, I am also curious to see if his Brazilian counterpart shows some additional folds to his game now that he will be more settled into his new home of American Top Team.
Barboza has already made marked improvements to his fleet-of-foot movement and defense that will make him difficult to pin down, and his counter punches and body kicks will provide fight-changing opportunities against Gaethje on paper should they land. However, unless Barboza is able to clearly assert dominance early, then his weapons can be steadily unraveled by the same foil that has popped up throughout his career — and that’s pressure.
For that reason, I will side with a late second-round stoppage win for Gaethje, who may very well be the new sheriff in town if he can successfully slug it out with the original lightweight leg-kicking phenom in Barboza. But regardless of which side you’re on, this is a plunge ‘unto the breach’ that could very well change both men permanently when it’s all said and done. Cherish what warriors like this bring to the table for our entertainment.
Prediction: Gaethje inside the distance
For more on UFC on ESPN 2, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
