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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Matt Erickson

UFC 295 predictions: We’re sincerely split on the two title fights in New York

The UFC is back in New York at the mecca of combat sports this week with a pair of title fights at the top of the card.

UFC 295 takes place Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPNews and early prelims on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

Get pick results from our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers, as well as additional analysis, below.

Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini

Diego Lopes

Records: Lopes (22-6 MMA, 1-1 UFC), Sabatini (18-4 MMA, 5-1 UFC)
Division: Featherweight
Betting odds: Sabatini (-120), Lopes (-105)
Junkie pick results: Lopes 6, Sabatini 5

Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis

Benoit Saint-Denis

Records: Frevola (11-3-1 MMA, 5-3-1 UFC), Saint-Denis (12-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC)
Division: Lightweight
Betting odds: Saint-Denis (-220), Frevola (+180)
Junkie pick results: Saint-Denis 8, Frevola 3

Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern

Mackenzie Dern

Records: Andrade (24-12 MMA, 15-10 UFC), Dern (13-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC)
Division: Women’s strawweight
Betting odds: Dern (-205), Andrade (+170)
Junkie pick results: Dern 9, Andrade 2

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall

Sergei Pavlovich

Records: Pavlovich (18-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC), Aspinall (13-3 MMA, 6-1 UFC)
Division: Heavyweight
Betting odds: Aspinall (-115), Pavlovich (-105)
Junkie pick results: Pavlovich 7, Aspinall 4

Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira

Alex Pereira

Records: Prochazka (29-3-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC), Pereira (8-2 MMA, 5-1 UFC)
Division: Light heavyweight
Betting odds: Pereira (-125), Prochazka (+105)
Junkie pick results: Pereira 6, Prochazka 5

Preliminary card picks

Loopy Godinez

Although fights on the prelims don’t count toward the standings in the MMA Junkie staff picks, we still pick each fight. Here are some key results:

In the important women’s strawweight bout between Loopy Godinez (11-3 MMA, 6-3 UFC) and Tabatha Ricci (9-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC), Godinez is a -170 favorite and has a big 8-3 lead in the picks from our staff members. Ricci has won four straight; Godinez has won three in a row and five of six.

In a rare occurrence, there were no unanimous picks on the entire card – but several fighters on the prelims came close. In the featured bout, 2-1 favorite Stephen Erceg (10-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) is a 10-1 pick over Alessandro Costa (13-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) at flyweight.

Also with 10-1 blowouts are Nazim Sadykhov (9-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC), though he’s just a slight favorite at lightweight against Viacheslav Borshchev (7-3 MMA, 2-2 UFC); flyweight Joshua Van (8-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC), more than a 2-1 favorite against Kevin Borjas (9-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC); and, oddly, Mark Madsen (12-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC), who is a betting underdog, has a 10-1 picks lead for his lightweight bout against the favored Jared Gordon (19-6 MMA, 7-5 UFC).

Check out all the main card picks below.

UFC 295 main card picks

Prochazka
vs.
Pereira
Pavlovich
vs.
Aspinall
Andrade
vs.
Dern
Frevola
vs.
Saint-Denis
Lopes
vs.
Sabatini
MMA Junkie readers’
consensus picks
182-100

Pereira
(51%)

Aspinall
(55%)

Dern
(74%)

Saint-Denis
(73%)

Lopes
(55%)
Nolan King
@mma_kings
183-99

Pereira

Pavlovich

Dern

Frevola

Lopes
George Garcia
@MMAjunkieGeorge
180-102

Pereira

Pavlovich

Dern

Saint-Denis

Sabatini
Simon Samano
@SJSamano
180-102

Prochazka

Aspinall

Andrade

Frevola

Lopes
Mike Bohn
@MikeBohn
179-103
2014 Champion

Prochazka

Pavlovich

Dern

Saint-Denis

Sabatini
Ken Hathaway
@kenshathaway
179-103
2018, 2022 Champion

Prochazka

Pavlovich

Dern

Saint-Denis

Lopes
Brian Garcia
@thegoze
172-110
2017 Champion

Prochazka

Pavlovich

Dern

Frevola

Lopes
Matthew Wells
@MrMWells
171-111

Pereira

Pavlovich

Dern

Saint-Denis

Lopes
Matt Erickson
@MattE
170-112

Prochazka

Aspinall

Dern

Saint-Denis

Sabatini
Farah Hannoun
@Farah_Hannoun
169-113

Pereira

Aspinall

Dern

Saint-Denis

Sabatini
Abbey Subhan
@kammakaze
168-114

Pereira

Aspinall

Dern

Saint-Denis

Sabatini
Danny Segura
@dannyseguratv
162-121

Pereira

Pavlovich

Andrade

Saint-Denis

Lopes

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 295.

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