MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 291.
UFC 291 takes place Saturday at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC/ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Dustin Poirier (29-7 MMA, 21-6 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 34 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 72″
- Last fight: Submission win over Michael Chandler (Nov. 12, 2022)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former interim UFC lightweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Thug-jitsu disciple
+ Regional and amateur MMA titles
+ 14 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 13 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved overall boxing
^ Cage-cuts, shifts, takes angles
+ Accurate left cross and right hook
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Offensively and defensively
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Solid submissions and scrambling
+/- 3-0 in career rematches
Justin Gaethje (24-4 MMA, 7-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 34 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 70″
- Last fight: Decision win over Raphael Fiziev (March 18, 2023)
- Camp: ONX Labs (Denver)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former interim UFC lightweight champion
+ WSOF lightweight title
+ NCAA Division 1 All-American wrestler
+ 19 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved striking acumen
^ Shifting combos and counters
+ Accurate left hook
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Heavy hips and good dirty boxing
+ Strikes well off the break
+ Good wrestling and scrambling ability
+/- 1-0 in career rematches
+/- 2-1 against UFC-level southpaws
Point of interest: Striking the second time around
The main event for UFC 291 features a fantastic rematch between two fighters who have given us some of the greatest fights we’ve had the privilege of seeing in the last eight-plus years of MMA.
The first time Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje fought was back in the FOX era in 2018.
Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje FULL FIGHT pic.twitter.com/iwSTk95jlo
— P4P#1 Volk (@TopMMAContent) July 26, 2023
The matchup was an instant classic that featured a fun striking dynamic that produced back-and-forth action through four rounds.
Gaethje, who was primarily a pressure fighter at that point in his career, came forward with near-reckless abandon as he assaulted the inside of Poirier’s lead leg (a classic approach for Gaetheje against southpaws).
🧵🪡 #TheSouthpawReport for #UFC291:
• Justin Gaethje, who faces Dustin Poirier, is 2-1 against UFC-level lefties (W: D. Lauzon, M. Johnson; L: Poirier)
His arsenal doesn’t change much against southpaws as he adjusts leg kicks to the open stance and still finds his lead hand: pic.twitter.com/HV1SnBz4Bn
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) July 26, 2023
Still, Gaethje got very little for free in that fight given the counters that Poirier kept in play.
Whether Poirier was hitting cross counters or the occasional check hook, the Louisiana native did a decent job of filling space and setting up shots off of bodywork and jabs.
Both fighters have improved and evolved since their first fight – particularly Gaethje.
Initially stepping onto the scene as a relentless forward mover, Gaethje naturally embodied the phrase “a bull in a China shop” with his unabashed aggression and hard-wiring to inflict damage. Traditionally doing his best work when initiating attacks, Gaethje will gain his opponent’s respect with hard hooks and crosses, looking to punctuate his presence with crushing uppercuts and leg kicks when appropriate.
Similar to a Spartan behind his shield in a phalanx, Gaethje would lean heavily upon his double-forearm guard, planting and looking to counter with immediacy.
Although Gaethje no longer strictly relies on a shelling defense, the 34-year-old still seems to have an inherent hunger to exchange that can sometimes encourage his aggressiveness (which is arguably reflected in the strikes absorbed department of his statistics).
That said, Gaethje – under the tutelage of longtime coach Trevor Wittman – has shown improvements in his feints, footwork and fundamentals since sustaining back-to-back losses to Eddie Alvarez and Poirier. And in his fight against Tony Ferguson, Gaethje took things to yet another level in the head movement and counter-striking department, putting together an intelligent process that still incorporates the former interim champion’s inherent power and tenacity.
Whether Gaethje is countering off of an inside parry or looking to roll under hooks to deliver left hands of his own, the hard-hitting American has steadily developed a taste to counter.
Akin to other Wittman fighters like Rose Namajunas, Gaethje has also utilized more lateral and shifting footwork to facilitate sneaky kicks and counters. Should Geathje decide to wear the hat of a matador, then I’ll be curious to see if that brings out the bull in Poirier.
An aggressive fighter out of the chute, the 14-year pro from Louisiana has shown to evolve from the once eager slugger to a more mature fighter who likes to dictate brawls rather than enter them. In fact, Poirier has made significant upgrades to his game since moving shop to American Top Team in South Florida.
Demonstrating an excellent awareness of distance and footwork, the slugging southpaw will shift his stance for setups (often doubling up on strikes from the same side) as he adjusts his angles accordingly with fight-ending shots in mind.
Utilizing this style of shifting to create attack opportunities, Poirier has shown to sit down more on his punches, giving four fighters their first stoppage losses since returning to 155 pounds. The 34-year-old also displays improvements to his prodding, pulling and returning, but will likely need to mind both of his legs given Gaethje’s history.
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Considering where the biggest skills disparity lies on paper, no one should be shocked if Poirier elects to mix in a little more grappling this time around.
Under the care of American Top Team, we have seen Poirier steadily improve his wrestling skills. He shows competent level-changing abilities in the open but arguably does his best takedown work when he is able to corral his opponents against the cage.
Nevertheless, getting to Gaethje’s hips is an endeavor that’s easier said than done.
Aside from being an accoladed wrestler, Gaethje also offers up a nasty game in closed quarters that Poirier will need to respect.
An unforgiving clinch fighter, the former Division I All-American wrestler has the hip triggers to stop deep takedown attempts while still maintaining the aggressive wherewithal to throw uppercuts and leg kicks in small spaces, consistently striking and making his opposition pay off the breaks (from either stance).
Gaethje also does a good job at framing off his opponent’s hips in close quarters, utilizing solid head position to help steer in his desired direction.
Whenever Gaethje’s opposition has been able to get deep on a takedown attempt, he is quick to utilize an overhook as he looks to separate grips with his spare hand, bellying down when necessary. Nevertheless, as good as Gaethje’s first layers of defense may be, he will still need to show improved grappling if Poirier is able to successfully ground him.
An excellent transitional grappler, Poirier can make hay from many positions and is not afraid to hold from topside while pouring on the punishment. Whether he is baiting submissions to pass or using an underhook to dictate position, Poirier will likely have to work extra hard if he means to control an explosive wrestler like Gaethje.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
Despite “The Diamond” opening as an underdog, public money was quick to correct the line, listing Poirier -160 and Gaethje -124 via FanDuel.
Even though the line is starting to get wider, I don’t disagree with Poirier being designated as the favorite.
Aside from the fact that he won their first fight, Poirier is also proven in rematches, going 3-0 opposite all-time greats like Eddie Alvarez, Max Holloway and Conor McGregor.
Gaethje may have made more improvements since their last meeting in 2018, but counters, bodywork and timing change-ups appear to be stylistic kryptonite for “The Highlight” regardless of his opponent’s stance.
That said, Gaethje is not beyond being taxed via counters for his aggressive leg kicks…
In fact, regardless of the stance pairing, counter striking, bodywork and timing change-ups have been a common culprit for Gaethje throughout his career. #TheSouthpawReport #UFC291 pic.twitter.com/l3Uma98U1G
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) July 27, 2023
In fact, the bodywork dynamic will likely be even more prominent given that this fight is at altitude.
Although Gaethje is a hard-working athlete that trains at elevation, his constitution seems to have a short but steady fuse in regard to his stamina. Whereas Poirier, though needing his pockets to recoup, seems to have a deeper well to draw from in the cardio department and has already proven that he can successfully navigate through hell.
Add in the fact that Poirier is the better-equipped fighter on both sides of the directionality coin, and I have a hard time seeing this fight make it into the championship rounds regardless of whether or not Gaethje tries to fight more technically.
Staying conservative on the backfoot may help Gaethje avoid counters, but it also invites Poirier’s most dangerous form: a shifting-forward puncher who does his best work when his opponent is in between the fence and inner-black octagon lines.
I think Gaethje will be particularly live in the second frame, but I’ll officially pick Porier by third-round knockout.
