MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 251.
UFC 251 takes place Saturday at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
Alexander Volkanovski (21-1 MMA, 8-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 31 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 71″
- Last fight: Decision win over Max Holloway (Dec. 14, 2019)
- Camp: Freestyle MMA/City Kickboxing (Australia)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ National wrestling gold medalist
+ 11 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Improved striking ability
^ Dangerous right hand
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Dirty boxing, elbows, knees
+ Superb wrestling ability
^ Takedowns, transitions, scrambles
+ Excellent top game
^ Aggressive ground striker
Max Holloway (21-5 MMA, 17-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 28 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 69″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Alexander Volkanovsi (Dec. 14, 2019)
- Camp: Hawaii Elite MMA (Hawaii)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Building pace and pressure
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Attacks off angles/manages distance well
+ Excellent variety of shot selection
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ 85 percent takedown defense rate
+ Deceptively counters clinches/grappling
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Underrated ground game
^ Slick submissions in transition
Point of interest: Revisiting the striking scene
The co-main event for UFC 251 features an intriguing rematch for the featherweight title.
In their first meeting, Alexander Volkanovski was able to shut down a majority of Max Holloway’s momentum with a variating array of leg kicks that were coupled with hard counters and freezing feints. But if you’ve been following the Australian-born Macedonian’s career, then you’ll know that Volkanovski didn’t always fight this way.
An acclaimed wrestler-turned-rugby player, Volkanovski initially stepped onto the scene as a come-forward fighter who typically approached the pocket like an oncoming juggernaut from his compact stance. A natural athlete, Volkanovski shows little issue when having to crash distance with his patent kicks and crosses, strikes that have been typically set up off of prodding jabs.
However, since moving to City Kickboxing in New Zealand, Volkanovski has seemingly sharpened his feints, footwork and overall striking fundamentals, measuring and moving in space more smoothly and on balance than before. The 31-year-old champion will now change up his combination approach, doing things like leading with kicks or finishing off combinations with jabs.
Volkanovski also has taken some of the feinting swagger from his City Kickboxing stablemates, showing or throwing away certain shots to land others with a bigger picture in mind. Nevertheless, as effective as Volkanovski’s newfound approach has been (especially in his last couple of fights), he’ll have to be extra careful to not leave any proverbial bread crumbs behind that the building former champ can use to follow him home.
Enter Holloway.
A Hawaiian striking machine who stormed the UFC scene (as one of the promotion’s youngest signees, no less), Holloway, who was already improving from fight to fight, turned his biggest corner after his 2015 encounter with Cub Swanson.
Since then, we have witnessed a technical evolution unfold from Holloway, who embraces his creativity and range with a diverse arsenal of attack. Whether Holloway is shifting his stance mid-combination or adjusting his timing on the fly, the exciting fighter makes for a hard read on the feet.
When feeling in stride, the 28-year-old will look to pay off his previous bodywork by punctuating his presence with everything from spinning sidekicks to digging left hooks to the liver. Coupled with his ability to counter effectively from either stance, Holloway hypothetically can take a fight in many different directions.
That all said, it’s the building nature of the champion’s game that makes him stand out from the rest of the UFC stable. Embodying a fighter archetype that I like to refer to as “a builder,” Holloway not only will build in his output, but his understanding of the fight’s traffic will also increase as he intelligently takes tools from his opponent and incorporates them into his game.
That said, Holloway will still need to show viable answers to the disruptive leg kicks Volkanovski landed in the first fight if he means to get things going to the body and head. If Holloway doesn’t make the appropriate adjustments early and often, then he may find himself, once again, stuck on a job site with little building supplies to work with.
Next point of interest: Potential grappling warfare
Point of interest: Potential grappling warfare
When looking at potential adjustments for each party, I wouldn’t put it past Volkanovski to keep a grappling game plan in his back pocket.
When not sprinkling in the occasional spinning elbow to his dirty boxing repertoire, Volkanovski has traditionally been a willing takedown hunter who will relentlessly chain from single to double-legs in close, looking to suck his opposition’s hips from the fence.
However, as we saw in his last two affairs, the current champ seems to favor control and security in these spots, which makes me wonder if he’ll turn things up to make his case more emphatic to both judges and critics alike. But as we know, trying to take down Holloway has been a very hard ask in recent years.
The Hawaiian’s superb striking may hallmark a large part of his brand, but Holloway has quietly made consistent improvements to his counter-grappling (only being taken down five times in the past five years). Even when having his takedown defense tested by an NCAA All-American wrestler in Ricardo Lamas, Holloway successfully thwarted his offensive shots, smoothly re-wrestling his way to ride positions of his own.
Not only does Holloway display the balance and defense to stuff takedowns, but he also shows excellent awareness of how to conduct his hips and grips in close. Deceptively hand-fighting to counter clinches and grappling efforts, Holloway demonstrates a knack for striking off the breaks, something that could be worth watching in this fight.
More importantly, whether Holloway is conducting himself from the clinch or inside the chaos of transition, he has always prioritized protecting his neck and head by either maintaining an upright posture in close or keeping his hands in the proper neighborhood to defend grasps. This note, in particular, is useful when considering his current champion’s acumen from the front headlock position.
Nevertheless, if Volkanovski is able to meaningfully take Holloway down, then the champion will be forced to deal with the challenger’s honey badger-like behavior.
Staking his claim to positions like he is fighting for his last meal, Volkanovski will immediately break down any posts his opponent looks to use in a standing effort, unabashedly swarming them with strikes while floating from wrestling rides. Volkanovski, who holds a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, is also quietly competent in submissions and has no issue snatching up a limb should Holloway leave anything behind.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to like the sitting champion, listing Volkanovski -210 and Holloway +175 as of this writing.
Considering the way we saw the first fight play out, I can totally understand the spread here.
Volkanovski fought a near-perfect fight, as he absolutely deserved to win the title in my eyes. And though everyone knows I’m a big Holloway fan whose yet to pick against him, I fear that changes here.
Not only was I not a fan of Holloway jumping right into an immediate rematch without the proper time for adjustments, confidence building, etc., but the more I rewatch their first fight the more I believe that Volkanovski is a bad style match for the Hawaiian.
Although Holloway had success in their first meeting by going to the body, I fear that applying the pressure needed for those types of attacks will bring about the cost some of us feared originally: that Holloway could be playing a dangerous game given the wars and weight fluctuations he’s put his body through.
For that reason, I wouldn’t be surprised to see things get ugly as this goes late, nor would I be shocked if Volkanovski became the first person to stop Holloway with strikes. That said, these two fighters appear to be in better shape than their training situations lead on, as I suspect we see a competitive contest that gets clearer the closer it gets to the scorecards.
