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Miami Herald
Miami Herald
Howard Cohen

Two tropical weather systems could develop. What forecast says on those and hurricanes

MIAMI — As if to say, “Look at me, hurricane season isn’t over until Nov. 30,” two new disturbances formed in the tropics Thursday to join Hurricane Martin and Tropical Storm Lisa.

According to Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach, Wednesday’s activity from Martin and Lisa was the first time since 1932 in which the Atlantic had two hurricanes with maximum sustained winds of 85 or more mph in November simultaneously.

Here’s what we know:

Northwestern Atlantic

A weak, non-tropical area of low pressure a few hundred miles east of Bermuda (the yellow X on the map) was shedding disorganized showers and thunderstorms over open waters, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami’s specialist David Zelinsky’s advisory at 8 a.m. Thursday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be “marginally conducive” for slow subtropical or tropical development over the next few days as the system moves slowly south Saturday and then turns west over the weekend.

By the end of the weekend, the disturbance is expected to merge with a larger system developing to its southwest (the yellow blob on the map), and that should stymie further development. Formation chances at two and five days is low at 10%.

Southwestern Atlantic

The larger system that could merge with the northwestern Atlantic non-tropical area is a large non-tropical low pressure system that hurricane center forecasters expect to develop this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean sea and southwestern Atlantic.

Zelinsky reports that the system is expected to start out broad and disorganized, but that environmental conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while it moves north or northwest.

Formation chance over the weekend is at zero but over five days there could be a 30% chance for development. It’s too soon to tell if this system could affect Florida.

Tropical Storm Lisa

The former hurricane was dropping heavy rain over southeastern Mexico, east-southeast of Ciudad Del Carmen, and had brought a storm surge to Belize. Sustained winds were 40 mph, with the storm moving west at 10 mph, according to senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch’s 8 a.m. advisory.

Lisa, having slowed down, would move over the Bay of Campeche and then weaken to a tropical depression Friday. Pasch doesn’t expect Lisa to re-intensify when its center reaches the Bay of Campeche. Tropical-storm-force winds extended up to 35 miles from the center and affected portions of the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and northern Guatemala.

Lisa was expected to produce rainfall amounts of four to six inches, with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, northern Guatemala, the southern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, southern and central Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and far eastern Veracruz. That much rain could yield flash flooding.

Hurricane Martin

Hurricane Martin was racing north-northeast on its way to becoming a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone later Thursday, hurricane specialist Philippe Papin wrote in his advisory at 8 a.m. Thursday.

At the time, Martin was about 805 miles west-northwest of the Azores and 665 miles east-southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland. Winds were at 85 mph, with stronger gusts, and the hurricane was moving at a fast clip of 46 mph and expected to grow larger and stronger.

A turn to the north is expected to occur later Thursday taking Martin over the far North Atlantic. The storm should then slow and turn to the east or east-southeast on Friday.

After its growth, Martin is expected to gradually lose strength through the weekend, but still remain large, according to Papin.

Hurricane-force winds extended up to 50 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extended 275 miles.

Swells generated by Martin when it become a post-tropical cyclone could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents and will likely spread across a large portion of the North Atlantic basin. These swells could affect portions of Atlantic Canada, the Azores and the Atlantic coast of Europe by the weekend, Papin wrote.

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