The Turkish government is warning the United States and Israel against involving Iran’s Kurdish minority in the war against the Iranian regime. Home to millions of Kurds, Turkey fears any such move could destabilise its ongoing peace process with Kurdish militants calling for an autonomous state.
Concentrated in north-western Iran along the borders with Turkey and Iraq, Kurds are estimated to make up 8 to 17 percent of Iran’s population.
As the war in the Middle East continues, several international news agencies reported talks between US officials and armed Iranian Kurdish groups. Seeking to assuage Turkish concerns, President Donald Trump last weekend ruled out such a move.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan welcomed Washington's assurances, but warned the threat remained. "Israel’s intentions on this matter are no secret," he told reporters. "Israel has for years used Kurdish groups in the region as a proxy."
Home to a large Kurdish minority, Turkey has fought a bitter war for decades against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is designated by Washington and the European Union as a terrorist organisation.
Last year the PKK ended its armed struggle and committed to disbanding in a peace agreement with Turkey, but its affiliates in Syria and Iran are not part of this process – a distinction that keeps Ankara wary.
"The Syrian branch of the PKK gave Turkey a hard time. Just as an autonomous zone within Syria was unacceptable, a PKK affiliate running the Iranian Kurdistan would be unacceptable – that's basically the state's position," explains Turkish international relations expert Soli Ozel.
"They don't want a Kurdish independent state or an autonomous state anywhere in the region, because they think that it would contaminate [other Kurdish populations]."
Turkey looks for regional help in its battle against Kurdish rebels in Iraq
'Dangerous gambit'
For a decade, Turkey’s military fought the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Ankara accuses of ties to the PKK. Earlier this year, the new Damascus regime, backed by Ankara, retook most of the SDF's territory.
"Israel has a very long history with the PKK. They definitely have relations with SDF," claims Serhan Afacan, head of the Centre for Iranian Studies, a think tank based in Turkey. "So Israel can always go and try to support these Kurdish groups in Iran."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in an address to Iran last Sunday, called on Iranians to rise up against the regime.
"It is becoming clear that regime change is not an attainable goal just through bombing," says Asli Aydintasbas, a political commentator and Turkey specialist at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. "So I think Israelis are exploring other options, including ethnic competition domestically, working with ethnic groups, including Kurds."
However, Aydintasbas warns that any attempt by Iranian Kurds to carve out an autonomous region would not only be met by strong resistance from Ankara, but also from Tehran.
"The Iranian regime, though it's been unable to resist US operations and military strikes, still retains a significant amount of military power, at least enough to suppress its own people," she says. "This is a very dangerous gambit for all involved, including the Kurds."
'War with no winners': Middle East crisis enters a dangerous new phase
Tensions with Israel
Israel’s support for Kurdish groups tied to the PKK has exacerbated Israeli-Turkish tensions, already running high amid Israel’s war in Gaza and competition for regional influence.
Analyst Ozel believes any Israeli support for Iranian Kurdish groups would fit with its long-term strategy for Iran and the wider region. "The Israelis would rather have a chaotic Iran than an Iran that has actually managed better, because no matter who runs Iran, I don’t think they can play Israel’s music," he argues.
"But the real threat, as far as Israel is concerned, is to have a rival that has the weight to play the strategic game... which I think is one of the reasons why plenty of Israelis in positions of authority constantly attack Turkey these days, saying Turkey is the new Iran."
Israel claims its attacks on Iran aim only to protect its security. However, Israeli support for Iranian Kurds would bring it into conflict with Ankara, a close Washington ally. For Trump, balancing Israeli and Turkish interests could be a major challenge in his campaign in Iran.
