The European Union is working more closely with Turkey on defence, aiming to build military independence as fears grow over Russia and doubts linger about continued US support.
Earlier this month, EU and Turkish officials met under the bloc’s Common Security and Defence Policy for the first time in three years.
The talks are part of a push to develop a more independent European defence system, amid concerns that a second Donald Trump presidency might weaken NATO’s guarantee to protect Europe.
Many see Turkey as well-placed to help meet the EU’s defence goals.
“We have huge potential for cooperation with Turkey,” said Federico Donatelli, an international relations expert at Trieste University.
He pointed out that Turkey has the second-largest army in NATO, and that “many European defence systems are in some way compatible with Turkish military hardware because the majority of EU members are NATO members”.
Donatelli said Turkey’s fast-growing defence sector could help the EU’s efforts to rearm.
“Turkey is one of the emerging players in the security market. One of Turkey’s key assets is producing efficiently at a lower cost compared with American or Israeli companies.”
Ankara's expanding military
Turkey was recently admitted to the EU’s €150 billion Safety Assistance for Europe arms procurement programme.
While Turkey is not yet one of the top 10 global weapons producers, it has made major advances in certain areas. It is one of the world’s biggest producers of military drones and has developed a fifth-generation stealth fighter jet.
Last year, Turkish company Repkon built a munitions factory in the United States using technology designed to speed up production.
And this month, Turkey’s drone maker Baykar signed a deal with Italy’s Leonardo to develop drones together. The deal is expected to help Baykar meet EU rules that require 65 percent of the value of any arms contract to go to an EU firm.
Sinan Ciddi, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, said Turkey brings valuable assets to the table.
“Turkey has a vast ability not only to procure and manufacture but also to supply these, that’s readily available. So, on the physical side, it’s great,” said Ciddi.
Concerns over Turkish politics
But Turkey’s position on the war in Ukraine has raised eyebrows. Ankara has kept ties with both Kyiv and Moscow, and Ciddi said this creates a dilemma for the EU.
“On the political side, it puts the EU in a rather precarious position of having to rely on a country like Turkey simply because, you know, Turkey has been playing both sides of this conflict, so it’s a double-edged sword,” he said.
Greece and Cyprus are also worried about closer defence ties between the EU and Turkey. Both have territorial disputes with Ankara.
While relations between Athens and Ankara have improved, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis insists that any defence deal with Turkey must include a clear promise to drop threats of war.
Turkey has said for 30 years it might use force if Greece extends its territorial waters in the Aegean Sea. Athens says it has a legal right to do so under a UN maritime convention.
Turkey has rejected the demand, saying the issue should be resolved through talks. Mitsotakis is due to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the sidelines of this month’s NATO summit.
Greek, Cypriot objections sidelined
Greece and Cyprus still have veto powers in the EU and have used them against Turkey in the past. But Donatelli said Russia’s actions have changed the mood in Europe.
“Nowadays, I think the priority of European countries – and the European Union as a whole – is more important than any concerns from Cyprus and Greece,” said Donatelli.
“I don’t think they will be able to halt this process,” he added. “Honestly, the priority for European countries is security: to increase production and to cooperate with all actors who can help in the defence sector.”
In a move widely seen as a way to get around Greek and Cypriot opposition, the EU has now made decisions on arms procurement subject to majority voting.
Even so, Greece and Cyprus could still slow things down diplomatically. But with France and Germany pushing hard to boost Europe’s defences, deeper ties with Turkey are likely to move ahead.
