Wyoming Republicans handed President Donald Trump a lopsided win and an unexpected defeat on the same ballot Tuesday, a split outcome that offers an early read on how far his backing carries inside the country's most reliably Republican state as the 2026 midterm cycle picks up speed.
Hageman Cruises to the Senate Nomination
In the race to succeed retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis, Rep. Harriet Hageman — Wyoming's only U.S. House member, first elected in 2022 after ousting Liz Cheney with Trump's backing — dominated a five-person field. Election-night tallies from Wyoming Public Media had her at roughly 63 percent of the Republican vote, with fifth-generation rancher and former whiskey distiller Sam Mead trailing well behind at close to 29 percent. Mead, who ran partly on protecting public lands, didn't pretend the odds favored him going in.
On the Democratic side, former state legislator James Byrd routed golf-course employee Billy Benavidez by a similarly wide margin — roughly 78 percent to 22 percent — setting up a long-shot bid in November in a state where Republicans have swept every statewide office for two decades. Addressing supporters in Cheyenne, Byrd said simply, "we are on the right side of this."
The Surprise: Trump's Governor Pick Falls Short
The night's real jolt came in the race to replace term-limited Gov. Mark Gordon. Trump endorsed state Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder for the job in January, and Hageman went further than a typical endorsement, campaigning directly alongside her — yet state Sen. Eric Barlow beat her comfortably. Unofficial results reported by Cowboy State Daily put Barlow at roughly 59,000 votes to Degenfelder's 38,700, with retired Marine colonel Brent Bien trailing in third with about 30,800. Degenfelder conceded warmly, thanking supporters for "the miles you drove and doors you knocked."
It wasn't the first time Wyoming voters have shrugged off a presidential pick in this specific race. Trump-endorsed megadonor Foster Friess lost the 2018 gubernatorial primary to Gordon himself. But this defeat landed amid a genuinely rough national stretch for Trump's coattails. Gubernatorial candidates he endorsed had already lost primaries this year in Iowa, Minnesota and Georgia. South Carolina is murkier: Trump's original pick there, Lt. Gov. Pam Evette, lost her runoff, but Trump had also added a late endorsement of the eventual winner, Alan Wilson — so depending on how a given outlet scores that race, Wyoming's Degenfelder becomes either Trump's fourth or fifth losing gubernatorial pick of the cycle. CNN's rundown counts South Carolina as a loss and Wyoming as the fifth; other reporting treats South Carolina as narrowly avoided.
Trump didn't dwell on the pattern."A lot of great WINS tonight!!!" he posted on Truth Social as results rolled in. His pull hadn't evaporated everywhere: the same night, his handpicked choice for Florida governor, Rep. Byron Donalds, won his primary comfortably, taking roughly 48 percent against a divided field that included Lt. Gov. Jay Collins near 25 percent. Two other Trump-endorsed House candidates in Florida weren't as fortunate, both losing their primaries that same evening.
A House Race Trump Sat Out
The closest finish of the night came in Wyoming's open at-large House seat, the one Hageman is vacating, where neither Trump nor Hageman weighed in. Secretary of State Chuck Gray edged out a nine-candidate field, finishing at about 25 percent, according to WyoFile's count, narrowly ahead of Jackson Hole businessman Steve Friess near 20 percent and retired federal land manager Kevin Christensen close behind at 18. Friess, conceding by email, was gracious about it: he told the Wyoming Tribune Eagle that Gray "won the race, and he has my respect." Roll Call described the margin as tight enough to have been decided by a sliver of the electorate.
Two of the three other statewide executive offices on the ballot were open specifically because their incumbents moved on to bigger races. Republicans chose Robert Short to succeed Gray as secretary of state and Steve Harshman to succeed Degenfelder as superintendent of public instruction, according to WyoFile's roundup of the down-ballot results. The state treasurer's race was a separate story: incumbent Curt Meier fended off a primary challenge from state Rep. Scott Smith, winning renomination by a roughly two-to-one margin rather than filling a vacancy left by either Gray or Degenfelder.
What the Split Says About November
None of Wyoming's statewide contests are genuinely competitive; Barlow is close to a lock for the governorship in November regardless of Tuesday's undercurrents. The more interesting signal is what a divided outcome says about where Trump's sway still holds. His pick dominated the marquee Senate race but flopped in the governor's race — one more data point in a 2026 pattern where his coattails have run stronger in Washington-bound contests than in statehouse fights, where voters appear to weigh local records more heavily than a national endorsement.
Trump's Numbers Have Softened Too
That pattern is unfolding as the president's own approval ratings sag. A Reuters/Ipsos survey fielded August 14-17 put his approval at 33 percent, a second-term low, while a slightly earlier Financial Times/Focaldata poll conducted August 7-10 had him at 35 percent. The two-point gap between them is a reminder that pollsters don't fully agree on the precise number, even where they agree on the direction. With Republicans defending narrow majorities in both chambers this fall, a president whose endorsement can't reliably clear a crowded primary — even in the nation's most Republican state — hands strategists in both parties fresh evidence to weigh as November approaches.
