President Donald Trump took all of one day to start digging at his predecessor's ambitious spending programs. Trump's "Unleashing American Energy" executive order, signed on his first day in office, directed federal agencies to pause disbursements under two of former President Joe Biden's signature bills that piled on spending for domestic manufacturing and infrastructure.
Five months later under Trump's spending plans, uncertainty — but not doom — surrounds the status of this Biden-era federal funding. The stakes are huge for the companies whose stocks and business outlooks have driven higher on expectations of lucrative contracts or financing for new factories.
Analysts generally break the companies into three groups. They say those involved in building infrastructure projects — like airports, water and sewage systems, and large rail projects — don't appear set to see a slowdown in the spending under Trump. But funding for chip manufacturing, at least for some projects, is at risk. And support for electric vehicles and renewable energy projects face much greater danger.
"We actually see growth in federal, state and local funding probably for the next couple of years in our markets, including 2025," said Vulcan Materials Chief Executive Thomas Hill on an April 30 earnings call. Birmingham, Ala.-based Vulcan produces crushed stone, sand, gravel and other construction materials used in infrastructure. You've "still got two-thirds of the IIJA funding yet to be spent," Hill noted.
Impact Of Trump Spending Plans On Construction Stocks
IIJA is the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, passed in November 2021. It approved $1.2 trillion for an almost endless array of projects tied to highways, general infrastructure and transportation. Two other measures now in the spending spotlight, both signed into law in August 2022, are the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. The CHIPS act served up $52.7 billion for projects designed mostly to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the U.S. The IRA authorized $891 billion in total spending, most of that directed toward renewable energy and climate-change-related projects.
While construction industry executives say a significant portion of IIJA funds are allocated — approved by Congress and assigned to specific projects — the early Trump executive order and his "One Big Beautiful Bill" look to pause at least some infrastructure spending and cull Inflation Reduction Act funds tied to climate projects and renewable energy.
Companies and analysts are now wrestling to understand just how much funding authorized during the Biden era has actually been allocated. Earnings and revenue forecasts for heavy-construction names like Martin Marietta, Vulcan Materials and Construction Partners all ramp up in the coming quarters, suggesting project funding is still intact. Outlooks for other companies in the sector appear less robust.
Some analysts contend that the Trump administration has changed how funds will be distributed. His Day One executive order instructed agencies to "immediately pause the disbursement of funds" under the 2021 infrastructure law and the IRA climate provisions until the White House reviews whether they align with its energy policy.
Laws Favoring Construction, Semiconductors, Renewable Energy
Throughout 2023 and into 2024, Biden-era legislation seemed to be coaxing back U.S. manufacturing of all types from lower-cost overseas markets. The result was the largest boom in construction of U.S. factories since the 1960s, according to Biden White House economists.
In all, Congress appropriated $836 billion in direct spending under the infrastructure law and $144 billion under the IRA, according to Biden administration data.
As of the end of November 2024, federal agencies had obligated $378 billion in the infrastructure law dollars. That included $162 billion that the government had actually paid out, according to federal spending data.
News reports emerged in the waning days of Biden's presidency that the administration was pushing out as much money as possible. How much of that went to the IRA or CHIPS Act is unclear.
"It's very hard to tell," Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, told IBD, referring to knowing how much infrastructure and semiconductor money had been committed to specific companies or projects.
A Murky Outlook Under Trump Spending Programs
Based on U.S. Census Bureau figures, Simonson says water and sewer projects have seen substantial year-over-year increases dating back three years. This suggests the IIJA has "boosted spending on those kinds of projects."
Spending on highway and street construction projects have "been relatively flat for the past several years," he said.
Federal money also appears to be moving into airport projects and railway and train station upgrades.
"We're now more than three and a half years past that (enactment) date, so you would expect the money to be put out there," Simonson added, referring to the IIJA. He says the outlook for infrastructure funding under the new administration is mixed.
"It's hard for me to write a story that says, 'Here's what has happened, here's what is happening now or here's what to expect.' All of those are pretty murky from my standpoint," Simonson said.
View From Construction Stock Vulcan Materials
Vulcan Materials' Hill, in the April 30 earnings call, said there has been "no impact" from the executive orders or pressure to slow the rollout of project starts, Inflation Reduction Act projects or infrastructure spending under Trump.
"When it comes to the highway work or public demand, there's no uncertainty of highway funding at the federal level," Hill said. Funds from the infrastructure spending measure are flowing "as expected."
This year public construction projects are "growing much more strongly" than private building activity. Simonson expects total construction to decline somewhat this year as a result.
Performance Of Construction Stocks
Among S&P 500 stocks, Vulcan shares have gained only 3% so far this year. Aided by a two-quarter earnings rebound, they've rallied 23% from a March low. Shares gained 70% from December 2022 through Nov. 6,2024, the day after the presidential election.
Martin Marietta, also an S&P 500 stock, rallied early in 2024, then rolled over into a consolidation. Its shares have gained 8% so far this year — but are up 26% since early April. Both Vulcan and Martin Marietta are in very tight flat-base patterns.
The companies are part of the IBD-tracked Building-Cement/Concrete/Aggregates industry group of 11 stocks, which collectively soared 100% from December 2023 through November last year. The group has slipped almost 4% in the 2025 stock market.
The group heavyweight, Ireland-based CRH, is effectively flat for the year. It's rebounded 22% from an April low and is struggling below resistance in a seven-week flat base.
Amrize is the U.S. arm of Switzerland-based Holcim, the global leader in cement and aggregates. Amrize launched its IPO on June 23. By the end of June, shares had slipped about 6% from their first-day closing price.
Infrastructure Spending Seen Continuing Under Trump
The IIJA provides federal highway, bridge and public transit funding to the states through Sept. 30, 2026. As of April 30, states had committed $202 billion in highway and bridge funds to support more than 96,000 projects, according to the American Road and Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA).
Since the IIJA passed, $124 billion in projects have been completed. As of Sept. 30, 2024, 44% of the money had gone to reconstruction and repair of existing infrastructure. About 21% went to added capacity and 6% for new construction, the ARBTA reports.
Congress has approved $347.5 billion that is not yet available to states for projects, based on the ARBTA funding tracker.
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"IIJA spending will peak next year in 2026, followed by an extended tail thereafter," Martin Marietta CEO Howard Nye told analysts at the beginning of the second quarter.
Nye said the Trump administration and Congress appear to be emphasizing projects "with national or regional significance, favoring roads, bridges and ports."
The CHIPS Act And S&P 500 Semiconductor Stocks
When it comes to the Chips Act, officials are "renegotiating" funding contracts "for the benefit of the American taxpayer," Trump Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said during a congressional budget hearing in early June.
Collectively, the 32 stocks in the IBD-tracked Electric-Semiconductor Manufacturing industry group, are up only 3% in 2025, but are working on a third straight monthly advance.
The weak showing masked some strong performances, such as Monolithic Power Systems. The S&P 500 stock has rebounded 29% this year and is verging on a flat-base buy point.
In the complicated space, some leading semiconductor stocks simply design and market their chips, outsourcing their manufacturing. These companies include leading S&P 500 stocks Nvidia, Broadcom and Advanced Micro Devices.
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Others, like S&P 500 stock Intel, design and make their own chips as well as provide production, or foundry, services for others. A few others are pure-play foundries, which strictly provide outsourced manufacturing services. Taiwan Semiconductor is by far the largest player in this last group. It was a leading beneficiary of the outsourcing era of U.S. manufacturing. Now it is working to lead the reverse trend.
Trump Spending And Impact On U.S. Semiconductor Manufacturing
In May 2020, Taiwan Semiconductor launched a $12 billion effort in north Phoenix, aiming to start production in 2024. South Korea-based Samsung announced a $17 billion facility project in Taylor, Texas, in 2021.
In January 2022, Intel anted up with a $20 billion plan for Licking County, Ohio. In March of this year, TSMC boosted its spending plans on U.S. facility expansion by $100 billion, bringing its total commitment to $165 billion.
Baird analyst Ted Mortonson said in an interview that there appears to be a "sea change" with Trump now in charge of the Chips Act allocations.
"They've really moved away from subsidies and incentives to more of a tariff structure of building plants in the U.S.," Mortonson said.
In other words, the threat of stiff tariffs on imports has urged non-U.S. companies to invest in manufacturing goods in the U.S. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is withdrawing direct government assistance to U.S.-based names like Intel.
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Those benefiting, from a Trump standpoint, "are the companies that are investing in the U.S., and right now that would be TSM, Samsung and Micron," he said.
From early April, when Trump announced his so-called Liberation Day tariffs, shares of S&P 500 stock Micron Technology have bounced 98%. Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor are up 74%.
U.S. Semiconductor Projects Under Scrutiny
Micron Technology announced on June 12 that it would expand its U.S. investments to $200 billion. Its plans for $30 billion in expanded production and a second Idaho fab come as the Trump administration finalizes $275 million in Chips Act funding for the company.
In December, Micron finalized $6.2 billion in Chips funding and committed $275 million to expand and modernize its Manassas, Va., facility.
GlobalFoundries and Taiwan Semiconductor are also in line for billions in Chips funds, while committing billions in capital spending.
"Those companies that are nimble and that can use their free cash flow to actually build in America are probably getting better treatment," Mortonson said. "Those under the Biden plan that were looking for just money and a handout — I think those are under significant scrutiny at this point."
"It's a big transition from one administration, the Biden administration, that was 'give it away and they will build' versus the Trump administration, which is 'Hey, listen, if you don't build in the U.S. you're not getting a dime,'" Mortonson said.
"It is definitely a change midcourse on the CHIPS Act," he added.
Big Firms Keep Infrastructure Outlooks Steady
But while Trump may change CHIPS Act allocations, observers broadly agree that the White House is not touching the lion's share of funding in either infrastructure legislation or the CHIPS Act. Most of the administration's carving is in the clean-energy initiatives in the IRA.
Jay Hatfield, analyst at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said the most notable difference under Trump compared with Biden is the "dramatic shift" away from renewables to traditional sources of energy.
Hatfield said Trump policies have "annihilated" solar stocks and that "offshore wind projects are dead." But, the analyst added, the natural gas outlook is much rosier.
"We are going to get a lot more natural gas development. But even more dramatically, when the Trump administration is doing these deals, we anticipate they will cut deals for U.S. LNG," Hatfield said.
"That's really the biggest winner: Natural gas and the midstream companies," he added, referring to federal support for development projects. "The losers are renewables."
Companies canceled $1.4 billion in new factories and clean-energy projects in May, with the total so far in 2025 worth $15.5 billion, according to the nonprofit group E2, or Environmental Entrepreneurs, and the Utah State University's Clean Economy Tracker website.
Cancellations include battery, electric vehicle and solar panel factories in West Virginia, New York, Alabama, Arizona and Washington, according to E2.
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How AI Goals Factor Into Trump Spending Priorities
Yet even as Trump is working to cull renewable energy project funding, the administration is looking to support data centers and big technology companies' quest to win the artificial intelligence arms race.
"Artificial intelligence, or AI, continues to drive strong demand for data centers across the United States as hyperscalers invest significant capital in new sites. Projects underway in our geographic footprint — including Stargate in Texas, Google in South Carolina and Meta's 4 million-square-foot facility in Louisiana — underscore this momentum," Martin Marietta's Nye said April 30.
"While not yet a meaningful contributor to product shipments, we expect data-center energy consumption requirements will drive ancillary demand for new aggregates-intensive power generation facilities across many of our key markets," Nye said.
"We anticipate demand for infrastructure in our public end markets and data centers in the nonresidential sector will remain robust," Nye added.
The Trump White House has also prioritized nuclear energy expansion in both executive orders and the spending bill. Trump in late May signed four executive orders to support the nuclear energy sector, speed up the deployment of new reactors and launch a "total and complete reform" of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
Westinghouse is reportedly the top pick to build 10 new large nuclear reactors by 2030. Cameco, part owner of Westinghouse, is also well-placed to be a major beneficiary of the executive orders.
Baird analyst Mortonson added that the U.S. is in an "infrastructure build cycle that we have never witnessed before on generative AI."
"It's never happened before," Mortonson said.
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