Trump Maintains Lead In 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Polling And PredictIt Market

TOPSHOT - Supporters of former US President and 2024 Presidential hopeful Donald Trump gather outside of Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire, where former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is expected to announce his run for US President, on June 6, 2023. Republican former New Jersey governor Chris Christie jumped into the 2024 race for the White House on Tuesday, positioning himself as a political knife-fighter and the only candidate willing to take on frontrunner Donald Trump. Christie, who filed his paperwork with the Federal Election Commission ahead of an evening announcement planned in Manchester, New Hampshire, presents a novel challenge as the only Republican contender so far willing to land genuinely damaging blows on the former president. (Photo by Joseph Prezioso / AFP) (Photo by JOSEPH PREZIOSO/AFP via Getty Images)

As of June 13, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) leads in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.

Trump’s polling average currently stands at 53%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 22%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.52, and DeSantis’ share price is $0.34. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election took place today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.

Former President Donald Trump is seen arriving to Trump Tower on May 28, 2023, in New York City. JAMES DEVANEY/BENZINGA

President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 62% polling average, followed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (D) at 16%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Democratic primary market, Biden’s share price is $0.73. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.15.

Biden, DeSantis, Kennedy, and Trump are the only candidates of those listed above to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.

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