It has been exactly 365 days since Donald Trump began his second term in the White House. The past year has been unpredictable, to say the least. However, as the dust settles on his first year back in power, one clear trend has emerged in American politics: the President's popularity is falling.
Recent data shows that Mr Trump's net approval rating currently sits at a troubling -16 per cent. While this is a tiny improvement of 0.4 points from last week, the overall picture for the President is grim.
According to the latest figures, only 40 per cent of Americans approve of the job he is doing, while a significant 56 per cent disapprove. The remaining 5 per cent are unsure. What is most striking about these numbers is not just the low total, but who is still supporting him. The data reveals a deeply divided nation, where the President's support base has shrunk to a very specific demographic.
The Divide: Education, Age And Gender
The breakdown of the approval ratings tells a fascinating story. As with other Republican politicians before him, white and male voters are among the most likely to approve of Mr Trump's job performance. This group remains his most loyal stronghold. However, outside of this demographic, support collapses quickly.
Younger voters and members of ethnic minorities are among the most strongly disapproving. This suggests that the President has failed to broaden his appeal since his re-election. Furthermore, there is a massive gap based on education. People who have the most education—specifically college graduates and postgraduates—are the least likely to support Mr Trump.
Perhaps the most surprising finding concerns older voters. Voters of pension age have historically been a solidly Republican voting bloc. They usually turn out in high numbers to support conservative candidates. Yet, current data shows this group is surprisingly lukewarm on the President. They are not offering the enthusiastic support Mr Trump enjoyed in the past, which serves as a warning sign for his administration.
Broken Promises On The Economy
To understand why these groups are unhappy, one must look at the economy. Mr Trump started his second term with a net approval rating of +2. However, by November, that number had plummeted to -18. The primary driver of this decline appears to be money.
Mr Trump was re-elected on a wave of economic pessimism. During his campaign, he made bold promises to the American people. He told voters that 'incomes will skyrocket, inflation will vanish completely, jobs will come roaring back and the middle class will prosper like never, ever before'. So far, the public feels disappointed.
The turning point seemed to be in early April, when the President announced an ill-considered tariff regime. These taxes on imported goods were meant to help American businesses. Instead, they contributed to a growing feeling that Mr Trump is reneging on his promise to 'make America affordable again'. For the average family, life has not become cheaper. This failure to lower the cost of living is likely the biggest reason for the drop in his popularity.
Trade Wars And Immigration Struggles
The economic strategy has caused other issues as well. Ratings of his handling of the economy and inflation were actually positive shortly after his inauguration. However, they have since fallen to strongly negative. This shift happened in the wake of his declarations of a trade war and the nervous response from investors.
Furthermore, Mr Trump is losing ground on his signature issue: immigration. Controlling the borders was central to his re-election campaign. Yet, the data suggests Americans now disapprove of his handling of immigration as well. When a leader loses support on their strongest topic, it is usually a sign of deep political trouble.
Looking Ahead To 2026
Despite the poor numbers, the White House remains hopeful. Economic forecasts suggest that growth looks set to accelerate in 2026. Mr Trump will hope that Americans notice this improvement and thank him for it. However, recovering from a net approval of -16 per cent is a difficult task.
For now, the President is relying heavily on white, male voters to keep his numbers from falling further. But with pensioners becoming lukewarm and highly educated voters turning away, the coalition that brought him back to power is looking fragile. The next 12 months will determine if he can reverse this trend or if the 'fumble' will turn into a permanent failure.
