Rep. Thomas Massie's (R-Ky.) discharge petition on releasing the Epstein files is all but certain to force a House vote by the end of this month — even if no additional Republicans sign on.
Why it matters: That's bad news for many House Republicans, who are torn between their base's demand for transparency around the Epstein case and President Trump's insistence that the matter be dropped.
- The White House has been privately pressuring Republican lawmakers not to sign onto the discharge petition, according to Massie and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has also publicly opposed the discharge petition, which would undermine his control of the floor.
State of play: The discharge petition stands at 216 signatures, with 211 Democrats and four Republicans — Massie, Greene and Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) — signed on.
- It needs 218 signatures to force a vote on the House floor.
- Several right-wing Republicans who have publicly championed the Epstein issue, including Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), have said they won't sign, casting the petition as a personal fight between Massie and Trump.
Zoom in: From here, it all comes down to voters in the heavily Democratic electorates of Fairfax, Virginia, and Tucson, Arizona.
- Virginia's 11th congressional district is voting Tuesday on a successor to deceased Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.). Democrat James Walkinshaw is expected to win easily in a seat that voted for former Vice President Harris by 34 points.
- Likewise for Democrat Adelita Grijalva, who is running to replace her father, the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), in the Sept. 23 special election in Arizona's 7th district. The seat went for Harris by 22 points last year.
- Spokespeople for Walkinshaw and Grijalva told Axios they plan to sign the Epstein discharge petition if elected to Congress.
The intrigue: That would bring the petition up to the necessary 218 signatures, but that doesn't mean Trump and Johnson would be out of options.
- The White House could try to pressure one of the four Republicans who have signed on to the petition to withdraw their signatures.
- Johnson has in the past tucked language in party-line procedural measures to kill discharge petitions. He faced blowback when he employed the tactic to quash a proxy voting discharge petition in April, but he used the ensuing stalemate to negotiate a quiet end to the issue.
- Massie has argued repeatedly that the Epstein files is a far more potent issue to the public — and the GOP base — than proxy voting for members of Congress, and thus Johnson will have a more difficult time shutting it down.
What to watch: If Massie does succeed in forcing a vote on a measure forcing the release of the Epstein files, that puts many Republicans — particularly those on the right — in a bind.
- Many in the party have spent years suggesting there is a massive cover-up aimed at protecting Epstein's associates from PR and legal fallout.
- But opposing Trump, especially on a potent issue, is always a risky proposition for Republican elected officials. Just ask the Republicans who voted to impeach him in 2021.
Editor's note: This article has been corrected to reflect that Virginia's special election is Sept. 9 (not Sept. 16).
