Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik officially entered the 2026 race for governor of New York on Friday, setting up a high-stakes showdown with incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul.
Stefanik, a staunch defender of President Donald Trump, launched her campaign with a video calling Hochul "the worst governor in America" and pledging to "clean up the catastrophe" she claims Democrats have created in Albany. Associated Press reported that Stefanik's announcement follows months of speculation about her political future.
The North Country congresswoman, who serves as chair of the House Republican Conference, has spent much of the year building a statewide operation and expanding her fundraising network. She previously launched a political action committee aimed at boosting Republican candidates across New York and testing the waters for a potential gubernatorial bid, according to The New York Post.
Recent polling suggests Stefanik could pose a serious challenge to Hochul, whose approval ratings have slipped amid voter concerns about affordability, crime and taxes. A Manhattan Institute survey conducted in late October showed Stefanik with 43 percent support to Hochul's 42 percent, a virtual tie within the margin of error, The Times Union reported. An internal poll commissioned by Stefanik's campaign found Hochul leading 48 percent to 43 percent initially, but after respondents were given information about both candidates' records, Stefanik moved ahead 46.4 percent to 45.9 percent, according to the New York Post.
The latest numbers mark a significant shift since August, when a Siena College Research Institute poll showed Hochul leading 45 percent to 31 percent — a 14-point gap. That same survey found only 29 percent of voters believed Stefanik had "the right experience" to serve as governor. Siena College has tracked the matchup throughout the year.
Despite Stefanik's momentum, political observers note that Democrats maintain a major registration advantage in New York, particularly in New York City, which continues to vote overwhelmingly blue. Still, the tightening polls indicate Hochul could face the most competitive gubernatorial race since George Pataki's victory in 1994. Analysts estimate Stefanik's current odds of unseating Hochul at roughly 35 to 40 percent, depending on turnout and the national political climate.
Hochul, who succeeded former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in 2021 and won a full term the following year, has not yet formally launched her reelection campaign.
Stefanik's rise within the Republican Party has been closely tied to her alliance with Donald Trump. In late 2024, Trump nominated her to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, calling her "one of my biggest allies" and praising her loyalty during his first term. Stefanik publicly accepted the offer, saying she was "truly honored" to join Trump's Cabinet and help advance his "America First" foreign policy agenda, according to a statement released on her congressional website.
But the appointment was short-lived. In March 2025, Trump abruptly withdrew Stefanik's nomination, citing concerns that her departure from Congress could threaten the GOP's narrow House majority. The decision, according to Associated Press and The Washington Post, was widely interpreted as a pragmatic political move rather than a personal rebuke. Still, it highlighted the transactional nature of Trump's relationship with his closest allies — and left Stefanik to continue shaping her national profile from Capitol Hill ahead of her gubernatorial run.
