The tropical wave moving west in the Atlantic Ocean, generally toward the United States, could develop into a tropical storm by the middle of next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
But the system appears to be tracking south of the U.S. and would need a change of direction to the north instead of toward South America, according to forecasters.
“In order for the tropical wave to have a better chance of organizing,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said, “it may have to shift farther to the north and over the open waters of the Caribbean Sea.”
The system is moving west at 15 mph, according to the 8 a.m. Friday advisory from the NHC.
It has a 60% chance of developing in the next five days, which is considered a medium chance, according to the NHC, and a 20% chance of developing in the next 48 hours.
Wind shear, dry air and Saharan dust have worked to keep disturbances in check through the early part of hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
There’s only been one named storm, Alex, this season. That’s a far cry from the two previous seasons.
The 2021 hurricane season and the record 2020 season, during which there were 30 named storms, had four named storms in June.
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