Week 1 is days away and with it comes the beginning of a new era in Jets football. Adam Gase is running the show with a bevy of offensive playmakers and Sam Darnold will look to build on his strong rookie season.
The Jets host the Bills at Metlife Stadium in an early clash of division rivals. The Bills defense, at times, was one of the strongest in the league in 2018. They gave Josh McCown trouble the first time the two teams met, but Darnold dispatched the Bills in the second matchup with a fantastic fourth-quarter comeback.
There are changes to both teams in this game, though. The Jets offense will be much improved, but the Bills defense also added a top defensive line prospect in Ed Oliver in the first round of the draft.
Here are four keys to the Jets offense Week 1 vs. the Bills.
Win in the trenches
This is an obvious key for all offenses in the NFL, but it’s especially important for the Jets against one of the more penetrative defenses. Last year, the Bills tied for third with 88 tackles for a loss and ranked fifth in pass pressure DVOA with a pressure rate of 33.8 percent, per Football Outsiders. The Bills replaced veteran Kyle Williams in the middle of the defensive line with 2019 first-rounder Ed Oliver and still have second-year middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and defensive end Jerry Hughes.
Sam Darnold won’t have the chance to find his new offensive weapons if he’s constantly battered behind the line of scrimmage. Luckily, the Jets upgraded their offensive line with center Ryan Kalil and guard Kelechi Osemele. Kalil, Osemele and incumbent starters Kelvin Beachum, Brian Winters and Brandon Shell must hold it down in the trenches against the Bills for the Jets to succeed on Sunday.
Put up over 350 total yards
The Jets won’t be able to win this game with a conservative offensive approach. In 2018, the Bills only allowed 294.1 yards per game – the second-fewest yards in the NFL. But in six games where they allowed more than 350 yards, the Bills went winless.
With so many playmakers on offense, the Jets should have no problem eclipsing that yardage total. Darnold heads into the season with a full year of experience and a full offseason learning Adam Gase’s offense with players like Le’Veon Bell, Ty Montgomery, Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder. Regardless of the opponent, the Jets will need to put up yards and the Bills will be the first test in that mission.
Don’t turn the ball over
No team can afford to turn the ball over on offense, least of all the Jets, who finished fourth in the league with 30 total turnovers last year. While the Jets won all four of their games despite turning the ball over at least twice, they also did so six other times as well. The Bills, meanwhile, went 5-4 when their defense forced at least two turnovers and tied for the NFL lead with five defensive touchdowns (four off interceptions and one off of a fumble).
Some offenses can rebound despite turnovers. For example, the Steelers finished with the seventh-most turnovers with 26 but still put up the fifth-most yards and sixth-most points in the league. The Jets aren’t at that level yet and will need to keep their offense on the field to stay competitive.
Convert in the red-zone
The Bills’ red-zone defense was atrocious in 2018. Buffalo allowed the third-worst red-zone conversion rate at 70.8 percent and the ninth-most red-zone touchdowns with 34. The Jets offense, meanwhile, only scored on 44.4 percent of their red zone opportunities, also third-worst in the league, and only scored 20 red zone touchdowns.
Darnold wasn’t efficient in the red zone during his rookie season, completing only 53.5 percent of his passes for eight touchdowns. Luckily, the Jets have a couple of offensive players who thrive in scoring inside the 20-yard line. Le’Veon Bell excelled in the red zone during his career with the Steelers and should be able to continue that success in New York against the Bills. Over 90 percent of his touchdowns came in the red zone (38-42). Ty Montgomery scored eight of his 11 career touchdowns there as well.
