The Tour de France rarely disappoints but this year’s race has been utterly absorbing from the get-go when crosswinds blew apart the peloton on stage 1, and there’s every reason to think stage 11 will serve up another thrilling day.
Not many predicted Ireland’s breakaway artist Ben Healy would own the famous yellow jersey on the first rest day of this Tour, but that’s exactly what has unfolded after some tactical brilliance on Monday’s stage 10 helped him gain more than three minutes on Tadej Pogacar to depose the reigning champion at the top of the GC standings, while Simon Yates won the stage itself.
Not that Pogacar – who enjoyed coffees and a giant burger on Tuesday’s rest day – plans on lending Healy the maillot jaune for long.
“We will see if Ben can hold on to the yellow jersey for a couple of stages,” Pogacar said. “I think that he spent a lot of time in the breakaway already, so I hope he feels tired and we can fight again for the yellow in the next coming stages, maybe not [ stage 11 around Toulouse] but Hautacam and then the time trial [at Peyragudes] and Superbagneres – it's going to be three really nice climbing days.”
That’s all to come later in the week but Healy has a strong chance to still be wearing yellow by the end of the day, as the Tour resumes in Toulouse with a 154km route to and from the city. The stage is officially categorised as “flat” by race organisers, but it is hilly enough to scupper some of the sprinters’ hopes if the pace is high, which it may well be – stage 9 was the second fastest stage ever recorded, and stage 10 never let up either.
Each had their own unique set of circumstances driving the peloton’s high pace, but there’s every reason to suspect another breakaway will form early here on stage 11, with the sprinters’ teams forced to give chase if they want to set up their rider. Tim Merlier (Soudal–Quick-Step), Kaden Groves (Alpecin–Deceuninck), Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), Biniam Girmay (Intermarche–Wanty) and Arnaud de Lie (Lotto) will all be hoping for a bunch sprint to the line.
But that is no foregone conclusion, with five categorised climbs to clear including four in the 50km, and power riders might be put off by the finale: a loop around the city with a few short, sharp climbs such as the Cote de Pech David (800m at 12.4%) with 9km to go.
The final 6km is flat, so will we see the sprinters there for a showdown or will it be a puncheur breaking clear over the hills who steals the stage?
Route map and profile
Start time
Stage 11 starts at 12.45pm BST with an expected finish time of around 4.10pm.
Prediction
This is a tricky stage to predict, with the sprinters’ teams desperate for a calm day followed by a dash to the line, but facing the prospect of having to chase down a determined breakaway looking for the stage win themselves. It could even be a day for a solo artist to escape clear, just as Ben Healy so expertly triumphed on stage 6.
I would like to go for something of a romantic option – Julian Alaphilippe is one of the greatest one-day riders of his generation but has not triumphed at the Tour de France since 2021. If he gets into a strong breakaway then he has the racing nous to time a decisive launch to the line.
But more realistic is a rider with the legs to crest the hills and a sprint to outgun their rivals down the home straight. Jonathan Milan and Kaden Groves both have the firepower to do just that, but I fancy Wout van Aert to take an opportunistic win, either by getting himself in the breakaway or by taking a messy sprint.
