The WNBA’s 30th season kicks off on Friday, and though it didn’t necessarily seem like that would happen at moments throughout the winter, it’s time to focus on basketball.
So, will the Aces run it back for a fourth title in five years? Is A’ja Wilson a lock for MVP for a third straight season? And who is in the running for Rookie of the Year?
From top storylines to title picks, here’s what our WNBA staff thinks is in store this season.
What storyline are you most interested in this season?
Emma Baccellieri: Have the Wings tweaked enough to become legitimate contenders? Of all the changes for Dallas this offseason, it seems like the most important one just might have been hiring coach Jose Fernandez, who has completely overhauled the style of play. The preseason gave us a glimpse of an offense that played much faster and flowed more freely. (All of which is to say: an offense that was decidedly more fun.) The Wings upgraded their frontcourt this winter by adding the established tandem of Alanna Smith and Jessica Shepard. They used the No. 1 pick to bring in sharp-shooting guard Azzi Fudd. Throw in the continued development of not just Rookie of the Year Paige Bueckers but also fellow young players Maddy Siegrist and Aziaha James. And we haven’t even touched on what Dallas might get in this system from Arike Ogunbowale. This is a much better Wings roster than 2025. But just how much better will it be?
MORE: For Players Like the Wings’ Alysha Clark, This New WNBA Era Just Means More
Clare Brennan: Can the Sky’s overhauled roster lead them back to the playoffs? This year’s Chicago team looks almost completely different from the one that went 10–34 last season. The Sky added veteran guards Natasha Cloud and Skylar Diggins, as well as Azurá Stevens (who won a title with Chicago in 2021), Rickea Jackson, DiJonai Carrington and Jacy Sheldon during the offseason. How will Cloud and Diggins play off each other in the backcourt? Can Jackson and Kamilla Cardoso engineer chemistry on the fly? The new-look Chicago roster is flashy, but will that translate to wins and a postseason appearance? Questions abound in the Windy City.
Dan Falkenheim: How much of the talk about playing Caitlin Clark off the ball more often is real vs. preseason aspirationalism? For context, Stephanie White told reporters, “In order to alleviate how hard she has to work on every single possession, it’s important to get her off the ball.” (Clark has also joked that Fever reporters’ two favorite questions are what she wears to practice and her off-ball usage.) The idea shouldn’t be a surprise. Clark gets picked up and hounded like no other player in the league, and she often commandeers rebounding, playmaking and scoring duties all throughout a 94-foot possession. Clark herself has said it’s exhausting. So, why wouldn’t the Fever play her off the ball more often? It requires trust (in guards Raven Johnson and Tyasha Harris), creativity and balance, three factors that don’t come easily. Alleviating Clark’s load will make the Fever less predictable and more versatile, but it’s all too easy to fall back on what’s natural and what has worked for Clark throughout her entire career.
Blake Silverman: Was Angel Reese the missing piece in Atlanta? Although the Dream were bounced by the Fever in the first round of the playoffs, the first year of the Karl Smesko era went well. With a 30–14 regular-season record, Atlanta tied with the Aces and was only behind the Lynx in the standings. Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray are two of the W’s best scorers and now, Atlanta adds Reese to dominate down low. She’s led the league in rebounding in each of her two seasons and while Atlanta was great on the glass last year, Reese takes it to another level. Although Brittney Griner signed with Connecticut and Brionna Jones’s status is uncertain as she recovers from knee surgery from an offseason injury overseas, Reese and Naz Hillmon can keep Atlanta’s defense near the top of the league. With Howard and Gray’s scoring power, plus Reese’s ability to score near the rim and get second-chance opportunities, the Dream could have what it takes to compete for the franchise’s first WNBA title.
Who will win Rookie of the Year?
Baccellieri: Georgia Amoore, Washington Mystics. A bold prediction, yes, but I see a few different factors working in her favor. One is that Amoore’s injury last year gave her a full season to study her teammates and their tendencies and for her to learn pro habits. (Amoore was drafted at No. 6 out of Kentucky last year but tore her ACL in training camp. The injury kept her sidelined for the entirety of the regular season and therefore leaves her as a rookie for statistical purposes this season.) Another relevant factor here is that Washington’s young roster and lack of depth at point guard will require her to carry a lot. For everyone who forgot just how fun and dynamic Amoore was in college, get ready for a reminder.
Brennan: Olivia Miles, Minnesota Lynx. Free agency brought on a mass exodus of talent in Minnesota this offseason, and Napheesa Collier will miss the start of the season after undergoing ankle surgery. While not ideal, this means the team’s attention will likely turn to developing Miles, handing her the keys to the Lynx’s offense. The No. 2 pick in the draft will get plenty of time and space to grow into her role as the team’s primary ballhandler and playmaker.
Falkenheim: Olivia Miles, Minnesota Lynx. She’s the most likely to win exactly for the reasons Clare laid out: Minnesota has a dearth of talent at guard, and Miles will be positioned to produce right away. Miles, at a minimum, is a box score stat accumulator and, at her best, she can be one of the league’s most dazzling playmakers from the jump. None of this is a knock on Fudd. But, Fudd will be playing next to Bueckers and Ogunbowale, and a true shooter like herself faces a steeper climb to become Rookie of the Year.
Silverman: Flau’jae Johnson, Seattle Storm. With Nneka Ogwumike, Diggins, Gabby Williams and Brittney Sykes elsewhere, there’s plenty of opportunity to go around this year in Seattle. Johnson could be a primary beneficiary of that as new coach Sonia Raman can give the LSU product a significant role with the hope that she grows into the franchise’s guard of the future. Volume is generally limited for rookies and that’s certainly the case this year, which clears a path for Johnson as a surprise ROY candidate.
Who will be named MVP?
Baccellieri: Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever. If Clark stays healthy this season, I think we see her take her playmaking to a new level and put together an MVP campaign. It feels silly to say that a player as popular as Clark might actually be underrated—but, after listening to some of these preseason discussions, I think it just might be true! Remember: This is the same player who averaged 19.2 points, 8.4 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game as a rookie. That she battled a shooting slump amid various injuries in her sophomore season does not lessen the potential here for me.
Brennan: Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix Mercury. Perhaps it’s foolish to predict someone other than A’ja Wilson winning MVP, but voter fatigue is real, and the Aces star has won the award four times. Thomas has been in the running for MVP over the past few seasons, shattering triple-double records while impacting the game in a way few other players can. With Satou Sabally gone for New York, Thomas will carry even more of the load for Phoenix this year.
Falkenheim: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces. What can’t she do? On offense, she’s a dominant presence in the midrange and inside the paint. On defense, she’s a complete terror. There’s simply no player in the league who matches her two-way prowess. Not much for the Aces has changed since last year, which means Wilson should be expected to run it back again in 2026.
Silverman: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces. Wilson is simply the best player in the world and although back-to-back MVP honors may bring voter fatigue, her dominance is at the level where she could become the first player in league history to win three straight MVPs. Collier’s unfortunate absence to start the year plays a part, but as long as Wilson remains in her prime, she’s an undisputed MVP.
What’s your bold prediction for the season?
Baccellieri: Julie Allemand will be named Most Improved Player. The point guard has cycled in and out of the WNBA over the last few years. But the 29-year-old spent the entirety of last season with the Sparks and played well enough to be the No. 1 pick in the expansion draft for the Tempo. That sets up her biggest role yet in the WNBA. And fresh off winning EuroLeague Finals MVP, she’s more prepared than ever to take it on.
Brennan: Chennedy Carter will win Sixth Player of the Year. The 27-year-old returns to the WNBA after an impressive showing overseas last year. In her four previous WNBA seasons, Carter played for three different teams, having been suspended by the Dream in 2021 and benched, then waived for poor conduct by the Sparks in 2023. Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon said she spoke with Teresa Weatherspoon, who coached Carter with the Sky in 2024, before signing the guard. Should she fit with the culture in Las Vegas, Carter is a massive asset off the bench, bringing an explosive spark to any offense. She can get downhill and shine in transition, adding pace to Hammon’s scheme.
Falkenheim: After making the WNBA Finals last year, the Mercury will miss the playoffs. I do not want to bet against Thomas, and I do think that Kahleah Copper may look closer to her 2024 self when she averaged more than 20 points a game. Nate Tibbetts is also a great coach. But … the Mercury haven’t made up for the loss of Sabally. Last year’s fringe teams got better, too. I have a hard time seeing the Wings, Sparks and Sky missing the playoffs this year. Throw in the Liberty, Aces, Dream and Fever as postseason locks, and that leaves one spot up for grabs between the Mercury, Valkyries and Lynx. It will be a fight, and Phoenix will desperately need a player like Valeriane Ayayi to step up this year.
Silverman: Sandy Brondello will lead the Tempo to the playoffs in the franchise’s inaugural season. The Valkyries made the postseason last year, now I’m eyeing another expansion franchise to do the same. Although that’s certainly not a given in this era of mass expansion, Toronto has the roster and an experienced coaching staff to exceed its expectations. Sykes and Marina Mabrey are a strong backcourt, while the same goes for Nyara Sabally and Temi Fagbenle down low. The Aces may regret leaving Aaliyah Nye unprotected after she played a key role for Las Vegas off the bench last year and should grow in year two for Toronto.
Who will be the 2026 WNBA champion?
Baccellieri: New York Liberty. Yes, this is a popular choice, and I imagine that Las Vegas will have something to say about it, but … I simply can’t pick against a group that returns its Big Three of Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu and adds a player as talented as Satou Sabally.
Brennan: New York Liberty. The Liberty have no choice but to win. GM Jonathan Kolb ousted Brondello and brought in Chris DeMarco to get the most out of his superstar team. New York didn’t assemble Sabally, Stewart, Jones and Ionescu to be runners-up. It’s win or bust for the Liberty.
Falkenheim: New York Liberty. (O.K., we’ve jinxed them at this point, so maybe it will be the Aces.) On a serious note, the Liberty were never quite right last season and player availability was a huge reason why. Stewart missed 13 games with a bone bruise in her right knee. Jones was hobbled with an ankle injury. Leonie Fiebich missed about a month due to overseas commitments. While that hasn’t completely gone away—Ionescu will miss at least two weeks with an ankle injury—having everyone back together and available might be enough to put New York over the top. That includes Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, who is one of the team’s best perimeter defenders and missed all of last year.
More WNBA from Sports Illustrated
- A Caitlin Clark Reunion? Four Kate Martin Landing Spots After Valkyries Waive Guard
- WNBA Finals Odds for Every Team Before Start of Regular Season (Liberty, Aces, Fever Top List)
- For Veterans Like Alysha Clark, This New WNBA Era Just Means More
- Hailey Van Lith Finds New WNBA Home Two Days After Sky Waive Her
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Top Storylines, Expert Predictions and Champion Picks for the 2026 WNBA Season.
