When I looked at Barchart’s Top 100 Stocks to Buy this morning, there were a bunch of names I’m unfamiliar with. Conservatively, half the companies drew a blank.
What really caught my attention was the number one stock on the list: Hycroft Mining Holdings (HYMC), a resource development company, whose most notable asset is the Hycroft gold and silver mine in northwestern Nevada.
I remember the name only because of its association with AMC Entertainment (AMC), the movie theater chain, which invested in Hycroft in March 2022, taking a 22% ownership stake in exchange for a $27.9 million investment in the company. Although I thought it was a crazy move, it’s turned out okay, but I digress.
As mentioned, I’m unfamiliar with many of the names on the top 100 list. One of them is Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), a Houston-based diversified oil and gas company with assets primarily in the western U.S. and Hawaii.
The 33rd-ranked stock on Barchart’s list is up nearly threefold since hitting a 52-week low in early March. Its weighted alpha of 216.46 is significantly higher than its 52-week return of 170.8%, suggesting its momentum is poised to push its share price even higher, despite the gains in 2025.
Should you bite? Maybe. Here’s why.
A Higher Market in 2026 Would Help
Business Insider reported on Monday that Deutsche Bank’s (DB) chief U.S. stock strategist, Bankim Chadha, suggested investors can expect the S&P 500 to move higher in 2026. A rising tide lifts all boats.
“Chadha is optimistic that despite fears of the AI bubble bursting, the S&P 500 will continue its winning streak in 2026 on the back of more strong earnings growth. He predicts the S&P will rise to 8,000 by year-end 2026, a surge of 18% from current levels,” Business Insider’s Samuel O’Brient wrote.
Right now, the S&P 500 is up 15.8% year to date. If Chadha’s prediction were to come true, the markets in 2026 could do better than in 2025. Whatever the case, it would be the eighth positive annual return over the preceding 10 years.
That would be nearly as impressive as the eight consecutive years of gains between 2009 and 2017.
Let’s assume for now that Chadha’s thesis is sound. The strategist argues that multiples are likely to continue expanding in the year ahead. That’s excellent news for momentum stocks like PARR.
What Does Multiple Expansion Mean for Par Pacific?
According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Par Pacific’s enterprise value of $3.63 billion is 0.49 times its trailing 12-month revenue and 5.28 times its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). The only time either of these multiples has been higher in the past five years was in 2021 and 2022.
Over this period, the highest annual EBITDA achieved was $805 million in 2023 on $8.23 billion in revenue. Let’s assume that both multiples are 50% higher in 2026 and EBITDA profitability returns to 2023’s level.
Based on an EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 7.92x, its enterprise value would be $6.38 billion. Given it had net debt of $1.26 billion as of Sept. 30, its market cap would be $5.12 billion, or $101.69 a share based on 50.3 million shares outstanding.
That’s 115% higher than its current share price. Of course, that requires much to go right in both a macro and micro sense.
Is the Company Worth Your Hard-Earned Capital?
The company’s former name was Delta Petroleum. It entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy in December 2011. It emerged from bankruptcy in August 2012 and was renamed Par Petroleum.
In October 2015, Par Petroleum changed its name to Par Pacific Holdings to reflect its growth strategy of building and acquiring market-leading businesses. The CEO in 2015 was William Pate, who remains a director.
It emerged from bankruptcy with $190 million in total assets and just $7.4 million in long-term debt. By the end of 2015, total assets were $892 million, with $154 million in long-term debt.
Today, it has $4.08 billion in total assets, with $963 million in long-term debt, or 40.6% of its market cap. Its total debt is 50.4% of its capital, which is reasonable relative to its refining industry peers.
Five of the eight analysts who rate PARR stock give it a Buy (4.13 out of 5), with a $46.88 target price, slightly above its current share price.
Even though it’s got some moving parts -- a 46% ownership interest in Laramie Energy, an exploration and production company, 121 gas stations in Hawaii and the Pacific Northwest, and 549 miles of pipeline -- it is primarily a refiner of oil and gas.
It operates four refineries in Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana. They have crude oil throughput capacity of 219 Mbpd (million barrels per day). They take that oil and convert it into gasoline, distillate, asphalt, and other products to sell to customers in Hawaii and the western U.S.
Its gross profit is the difference between what it can sell these products for and the cost to refine the oil, which includes the price of a barrel of oil. It’s generally better for refiners when oil prices are lower.
In Q3 2025, the average price of a barrel of WTI oil was $64.97, 14% lower than in Q3 2024. That significantly boosted the refining segment’s operating profit.
So, the big question for investors is where they think oil prices are headed.
If, as some on Wall Street predict, the price of a barrel of WTI crude drops to an average of $59 in 2026, profits will move higher. Further, Goldman Sachs believes prices won’t rebound until 2027, with prices falling below $59 a barrel next year.
I’m not a big oil and gas investor, so I can’t say with confidence that I'd buy the stock at these prices. However, looking at today’s options action, despite Par Pacific not having much volume, the June 18/2026 $45 call looks like a way to hedge your bet.
In the money by 2.51%, the call costs you $710, 15.4% of the share price. You can double your money if the shares appreciate by $11.46 (25%) over the next 28 weeks. With multiple expansion, that’s more than possible.
