With the Tennessee Titans missing out on the playoffs again this year, much of the focus in Week 18 is on the team’s position in the 2024 NFL draft.
According to Tankathon, the Titans are currently in the No. 7 spot in the draft order but can move up to as high as No. 4 or as low as No. 8 depending on the results of this week’s games.
That might not seem like a lot, but as little as one spot in either direction can be the difference between the Titans landing one of the top left tackle prospect in this year’s class.
The Titans trail two teams with the same 5-11 record because of strength of schedule: the New York Giants (No. 5) and Los Angeles Chargers (No. 6).
In addition, the Arizona Cardinals (No. 4) are also ahead of the Titans because of an inferior 4-12 record, but Arizona has already clinched a superior strength of schedule over Tennessee.
Sitting one spot behind the Titans is the New York Jets (No. 8), who have one more win but an inferior strength of schedule number.
We’ll be keeping an eye on all of these teams in Week 18, as the results of their contests will weigh heavily on where Tennessee ends up picking in April.
Let’s break it all down and see how the Titans can move up to No. 4, as well as other scenarios that could unfold to move Tennessee up a spot or two, or back one.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Desired result: Jaguars win
There is no scenario where the Titans can win and grab the No. 4 pick, so a loss to the Jaguars is necessary to get the highest selection possible.
There is a scenario where the Titans can win and still move up one spot. We’ll touch on that at the end, though.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Desired result: Cardinals win
The Seahawks will be fighting for their playoff lives in this game. The good news is, it doesn’t look like the Cardinals will bench Kyler Murray, which gives them the best chance to win.
An Arizona win and a Titans loss will guarantee Tennessee moves up at least one spot from No. 7.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Desired result: Giants win
There would normally be almost zero optimism for the Giants to beat the Eagles here, but Philly may rest its starters with a playoff spot locked up.
Granted, the division is still up for grabs, so it’s possible Philly plays its best, but the Eagles need to win and must have the Dallas Cowboys lose to the lowly Washington Commanders, something that’s highly unlikely.
The Giants winning and the Titans losing would mean Tennessee moves up at least one spot in the draft order. Tennessee cannot pass New York if both lose, though, as the Giants have clinched the worse strength of schedule.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Desired result: Chargers win
The Chiefs are confirmed to be resting Patrick Mahomes and their starters for this game, thus the Easton Stick-led Chargers, a team that is also extremely banged up, have a better shot to win this game than they otherwise would.
As is the case with the Giants and Cardinals, a Titans loss combined with this result would guarantee Tennessee at least one spot higher in the draft order.
It’s also important to note that the Titans can jump the Chargers even if both teams finish with the same result, as Los Angeles has not clinched an inferior strength of schedule yet. We’ll get into that shortly.
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Desired result: Jets win
The Jets have zero impact on the Titans moving up, but New York will jump Tennessee if the former loses and the latter wins, as the Jets have an inferior strength of schedule mark.
Thankfully, we only have to worry about that scenario if the Titans win, as the Jets have a better record going into Week 18.
More scenarios
A shoutout to Justin Graver of “The Music City Audible” podcast for crunching the numbers on other scenarios for the Titans.
If you are rooting for the Titans to win AND move up one spot in the draft order, there is a way!
• TEN > JAX
• LAC > KC
• BUF > MIA
• DAL > WAS
• BAL > PIT
• ARI > SEA
• NYJ > NEThe Titans can also win AND stay at 7 as long as the Jets win.
They would fall to 8 with a…
— Justin Graver (@titansfilmroom) January 4, 2024
If the Titans and Jets both win, Tennessee will likely stick in the No. 7 spot, where they currently sit. If Tennessee wins and New York loses, the Titans would likely fall to No. 8.
But there is also a way for the Titans to jump the Chargers if they happen to have the same result. Again, that would require the Chargers to finish with a higher strength of schedule.
Here’s how that can happen with both teams winning, per Graver:
Titans beat Jaguars
Chargers beat Chiefs
Bills beat Dolphins
Cowboys beat Commanders
Ravens beat Steelers
Cardinals beat Seahawks
Jets beat Patriots
And here’s how that can happen with both teams losing:
Jaguars beat Titans
Chiefs beat Chargers
Bills beat Dolphins
Cowboys beat Commanders
Ravens beat Steelers
Cardinals beat Seahawks
Conclusion
As you can see, it would take quite a bit for the Titans to jump the Chargers if they have the same result, and both scenarios require a Baltimore Ravens team that is sitting its starters to beat a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is fighting for its playoff life.
So, let’s just keep it simple with the most realistic possibilities:
If the Titans lose, they will move up one spot from No. 7 for each of the three teams in front of them (Cardinals, Giants, Chargers) that win. Of course, if all four teams lose, the Titans stick at No. 7.
If the Titans win, they will stay in the No. 7 spot, barring the Jets losing, which would put Tennessee at No. 8.
Enjoy the scoreboard watching, Titans fans!
