Crude oil prices rose modestly Thursday as traders balanced U.S. inventory data with global supply developments. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $62.31 per barrel, up approximately 0.9%, while Brent crude gained 0.99% to $66.77 per barrel. The market showed cautious optimism, with investors monitoring supply-demand dynamics across North America and international markets.
In the U.S., crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub increased by 3.7 million barrels for the week ending Oct. 3, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This followed a 1.8 million-barrel rise the previous week. While the build suggested additional supply, strong demand for refined products helped prevent significant price declines. Cushing, the delivery hub for WTI futures, remains a key factor in U.S. regional pricing.
OPEC+ implemented a modest production increase of 1.3 million barrels per day, aiming to balance global supply with projected demand. Despite the headline numbers, many producers are increasing output gradually due to production capacity limits and previous overproduction adjustments. This measured approach has eased some oversupply concerns while keeping global output on watch.
Globally, Russia's crude production continues to climb, reaching roughly 9.17 million barrels per day in early October. Supply disruptions in geopolitically sensitive areas, including Ukraine, continue to influence pricing and shipping flows. Meanwhile, oil demand is expected to rise moderately, driven primarily by non-OECD countries, while demand in OECD nations is projected to remain flat. These trends contribute to an overall market that is balanced but sensitive to regional shifts.
U.S. crude production is forecasted at 13.53 million barrels per day for 2025, supported by higher output from both onshore wells and offshore projects in the Gulf of Mexico. The combination of rising production and inventory fluctuations has kept the market range-bound in recent weeks.
Gasoline prices across the country remained relatively stable, with minor regional differences influenced by refinery maintenance schedules and local supply conditions. Analysts continue to watch how inventory builds and OPEC+ output adjustments will shape prices in the near term.
Looking ahead, global oil inventories are expected to increase steadily through 2026, potentially putting downward pressure on prices. Brent crude is forecasted to average $62 per barrel in Q4 2025, with further declines possible next year. While short-term price movements respond to weekly inventory data and production tweaks, the broader market trend reflects a balance between rising U.S. production, measured OPEC+ output, and steady but moderate global demand growth.
IBT's Oil Market Watch will continue to track daily WTI and Brent prices, U.S. inventory updates, OPEC+ movements and global market trends, keeping you informed of the latest developments in the energy sector.
