Good morning. Yesterday, the world woke once more to news of the intense bombardment of Gaza and harrowing images of destruction.
At least 104 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes over Tuesday night, including 35 children. Among the sites hit was the Insan camp, which shelters cancer patients. All this despite a ceasefire agreed just three weeks ago.
Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, ordered the strikes on Tuesday evening after a firefight between Palestinian militants and Israeli troops. One Israeli soldier was confirmed killed in combat. The escalation comes amid anger in Israel over Hamas’s handover of body parts belonging to a hostage whose remains Israeli forces said they had recovered two years earlier.
Following the attack, US president, Donald Trump, said nothing would jeopardise the ceasefire agreement he helped broker on 10 October, but added that Israel “should hit back” if its soldiers were killed.
The question on everyone’s mind is simple: will the ceasefire hold? To answer this and what is next for Gaza, I spoke to Emma Graham-Harrison, the Guardian’s chief Middle East correspondent.
Five big stories
US politics | Donald Trump has described crucial trade talks with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, in South Korea as “amazing”, saying their dispute over the supply of rare earths had been settled and that he would visit China in April.
Hurricane Melissa | Hurricane Melissa has torn through the Caribbean, slamming into Cuba while leaving parts of neighbouring Jamaica broken and reeling from ferocious winds and extreme rainfall.
Grooming gangs inquiry | Five women have asked for an apology from Nigel Farage after he suggested they were not victims of grooming gangs. The survivors, who sit on a panel advising the government’s inquiry on the issue, said that Farage’s claim was false as well as “degrading and humiliating”.
The Netherlands | The liberal-progressive D66 party was forecast to become the largest in the Dutch parliament, after a snap general election in which Geert Wilders’ far-right Freedom party was predicted to lose a third of its seats.
UK politics | Rachel Reeves has admitted to “inadvertently” breaking housing rules by renting out her south London home without the specific £945 licence required by the local council.
In depth: ‘Has this ever really been a full ceasefire?
The US vice-president, JD Vance, described the deadly bombardment as merely “skirmishes” and insisted that the ceasefire would hold.
But Tuesday night’s attack laid bare the fragility of a truce that has been marked by violence from the very beginning. Before the latest overnight strikes, Gaza’s media office accused Israel of committing 80 violations since the ceasefire began.
Israel’s defence minister, meanwhile, accused Hamas of carrying out an attack in Gaza that killed an Israeli soldier and of breaching the terms related to the return of deceased hostages’ bodies. Hamas denied any involvement, saying it had “no connection” to the attack and remained committed to the agreement.
When I asked Emma whether she believed the ceasefire would hold, she turned the question on its head: “Has this ever really been a full ceasefire?”
“There is an average 10 Palestinians killed a day since the ceasefire was signed. We know from the pattern of killing in Gaza that the vast majority of those are likely to be civilians. If people were being killed at that rate in other contexts it might be considered an active conflict, though it is far below pre-ceasefire rates in Gaza,” Emma said. “So when we say ceasefire, we must confront the fact that it has never been a situation where the killing has completely stopped.”
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Violations by Israel
Let’s break down the allegations of violations of the ceasefire from both sides.
Last week, the UN World Food Programme said that while supplies into Gaza had increased after the ceasefire, the strip was still receiving only about 750 metric tonnes of food each day – still a starvation diet.
“Gaza needs about 2,000 tonnes of food a day for the absolute bare minimum of survival – not for a balanced diet, but simply to stop people wasting away from malnutrition,” Emma said. “Amounts going in were just a third of that basic level, so we are nowhere near survival levels of aid.”
The shortage of aid has been central to accusations that Israel is violating the ceasefire. Civil society groups have also condemned Israel for blocking the entry of industrial equipment needed to clear rubble and recover the bodies of an estimated 10,000 Palestinians still trapped beneath the debris. Tents and temporary shelters are also desperately needed, particularly as winter approaches. Last week’s First Edition touched on the continued dire humanitarian situation in Gaza after the ceasefire.
And then there are the civilians. In a press release published on Wednesday, the Israeli military listed 33 Hamas fighters as killed in the strikes on Tuesday, suggesting that two-thirds of the dead were civilians.
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Violations by Hamas
Netanyahu’s decision to order airstrikes on Tuesday evening follows weeks of mounting anger in Israel over the failure to hand over the bodies of deceased Israeli hostages. That anger intensified after the Israeli military released footage purportedly showing Hamas members reburying a body to “stage a false discovery” for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). The military said Hamas was “attempting to create a false impression of efforts to locate the bodies”. Hamas has yet to comment on the claims.
So far, Hamas has handed over the remains of 15 hostages, with 13 bodies still believed to be in Gaza. The group says it does not know the location of all the remaining bodies, claiming it has lost contact with some of the units that were holding hostages who died either on 7 October or in captivity.
“There’s also been attacks on Israeli forces in the parts of Gaza, which is more than 50% of the total that it still controls. Hamas says it’s lost contact with fighters in at least one of these cases,” Emma said.
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Can the truce endure?
After the bombardment, Israel announced the ceasefire was back in force. But as the dust settles and Palestinians search for their loved ones among the dead, the future remains fraught with uncertainty.
Last week, First Edition spoke to Eyad Amawi, a representative of the Gaza Relief Committee, who is living in the Gaza Strip. Once the bombardment stopped, he released the following statement to the media, which encapsulated the dire reality in Gaza. He said:
The extermination has continued but with a different pattern. With international legitimacy and new global silence, what is happening now is the legitimisation of the continuation of the war at a lower pace, but under an international cover that also prevents the release of aid.
I asked Emma whether this is the new status quo: nearly two million hungry people waiting desperately for long-promised aid, while hundreds of Palestinians are killed in airstrikes and Israeli soldiers die regularly in combat – all under the banner of a “ceasefire”.
“I don’t think this is a status quo which can hold. If you talk to people with experience in complex ceasefire negotiations, there’s a certain momentum that has got the situation to this point, which was driven by urgent pressure to halt the killing and bring the Israeli hostages home, and Trump’s desire to broker a deal. But if that is not capitalised on to create something more stable and that addresses some of the very basic questions about who will govern and provide security in Gaza, then it seems very likely that Gaza will slide or collapse back into much more intense conflict,” Emma said.
There is widespread anger in Israel that not all the remains of hostages have been returned by Hamas. Israel’s far right, including parties with key seats in the cabinet, has also been open about its desire for a return to full-scale war in Gaza and its wish for the eventual re-establishment of Israeli settlements.
But there are also politicians concerned about Israel’s growing international isolation as a result of the war, which has eroded the country’s support in the US and among other key allies. And there is both grief and anger over the war’s toll on Israeli soldiers, many of them reservists who chose to serve.
“Hamas is destroyed as a military force capable of threatening Israel, it’s not destroyed as a guerrilla force capable of mounting an insurgency. Beyond the fate of the hostages, one of the key reasons that Israelis were protesting so strongly against the continuation of the war was the toll on Israeli soldiers, who were being killed,” Emma said. “And while there’s complete asymmetry of force, with Palestinians suffering the majority of deaths, injury, and destruction in all its forms, it won’t be a war without cost for Israel.”
But perhaps the most significant factor shaping the future of the ceasefire will be the stance of Donald Trump, who has hailed the deal as a triumph for the ages. His intervention is widely seen as instrumental in securing the agreement in the first place, and he has effectively given Israel a green light for the recent strikes that breached it.
Those hoping the ceasefire might evolve into a more lasting peace must now rely on Trump’s sense of self-interest – and that he remains invested enough in his own legacy as a historic dealmaker and would-be Nobel laureate – to keep intervening.
What else we’ve been reading
Snigdha Poonam’s long read about an Indian town where a remarkable number of young men have made a fortune from phone scams is one of the most interesting stories I’ve read this year. As she concludes, it’s not just about the lure of easy money: it’s “a portrait of two Indias colliding – one chasing material progress, the other bent on survival.” Archie, editor, First Edition
Videos about personality types are going viral on TikTok, which insists I’m a type A. While the science behind it is mostly bunk, I liked Arwa Mahdawi’s point about what our need for organisational systems says about us. Aamna, writer, First Edition
Mike McCahill makes the case for why A House of Dynamite, Kathryn Bigelow’s Netflix movie about a nuclear strike on the US, is a disappointment: the sense that the fear it most potently evokes “isn’t nuclear annihilation, but a director’s terror of being thought unworthy”. Archie
The White House’s decision to use video game memes – the kind that only make sense to the chronically online – to recruit ICE agents may seem strange. But as Alyssa Mercante reports, it is perfect marketing for their target audience: white, disaffected young men. Aamna
Sahil Dutta has a very sharp piece about the ways Rachel Reeves has been constrained by the bond market. Perhaps the most interesting point is this: by committing to a fiscal rule that creates pressure to reshape tax and spending policy, the government may actually be creating more uncertainty among investors. Archie
Sport
Cricket | South Africa made history in Guwahati on Wednesday, after a phenomenal innings from captain Laura Wolvaardt and remarkable figures of five for 20 from Marizanne Kapp helped them to a 125-run win against England and launched them into their first 50-over World Cup final.
Football | Ismaila Sarr scored twice as Crystal Palace increased the pressure on Arne Slot with a 3-0 win at Liverpool in the Carabao Cup. More league cup results
Football | Real Madrid are seeking compensation from Uefa after a court dismissed appeals filed by Uefa, the Spanish football federation (RFEF) and La Liga in relation to the abortive breakaway Super League. Last year, a Spanish judge ordered Fifa and Uefa to halt their opposition to a parallel European competition, ruling they were practising anti-competitive behaviour.
The front pages
“Grooming victims accuse Farage of ‘degrading’ remarks over abuse” says the Guardian. The Daily Mail has “Chancellor in crisis … Reeves illegally rented out her own family home”. The i paper goes with “Starmer signals rise in basic rate of income tax ‘to avoid austerity’” and the Telegraph likewise says “Reeves eyes 2p income tax rise”. The Times runs with “Prostate test from age 50 ‘would save thousands’”.
The Daily Express splashes on “Sex attacker migrant was given £500 to leave Britain” and in the Metro that’s presented as “Now jail farce migrant paid to go quietly”. The Daily Mirror’s lead story is “MPs pile pressure on King over Andrew”. And look who’s fuelling Russia’s war machine – “Mittal joint venture bought Russian oil transported on blacklisted ships” says the Financial Times.
Today in Focus
Chaos of the grooming gangs inquiry
Geraldine McKelvie reports on a tumultuous couple of weeks for the national grooming gangs inquiry, beset by resignations, provocative political interventions and accusations of a cover-up
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Five years ago, Troy Henry turned up to the very first trial held by the Ace programme, an initiative designed to bring more talented young black athletes into cricket after years in which participation declined. In August, he made his debut for Warwickshire, scoring 15 runs and taking a wicket. Four days later, another Ace graduate, Davina Perrin, smacked 101 off 43 balls for the Northern Superchargers in the Hundred.
Along with Amy Wheeler, who recently signed a new contract with her side, the Blaze, Perrin and Henry are the first players to emerge from the programme into the professional game.
Now Ebony Rainford-Brent, the chair of the initiative, is stepping down – but hoping that it can become more ambitious still. “When we started it was on a hunch that there was more talent in the black community that we needed to capture in the professional game,” she says. “We didn’t expect to have three pros come through this year.”
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