Festive rail passengers who choose their travel dates carefully will be able to avoid crowded trains over Christmas and New Year – as long as they can also swerve the inevitable Network Rail engineering work.
The Independent has analysed data from the Rail Delivery Group and other sources to predict the level of demand for trains on each day over the festive season – awarding a star rating from one to five. Saturday 20 and Monday 22 December are likely to be the busiest days before Christmas.
While individual lines are likely to vary – especially after Christmas when widespread Network Rail engineering work kicks in – passengers are more or less guaranteed an uncrowded trip on 24 and 31 December as well as New Year’s Day.
The optimum day to travel before Christmas in order to avoid crowding is Wednesday 24 December. Be warned, though, that services wind down early: the last London–Edinburgh train leaves at 4.30pm on Christmas Eve, while the final Newcastle–Birmingham departure is at 5.40pm.
No trains run in the UK on Christmas Day, and very few on Boxing Day, so these days are not covered.
After Christmas there will be a surge on Saturday 27 December when intercity services are restored. Some key lines will close, putting pressure on other routes.
New Year’s Eve will be quiet, with New Year’s Day seeing fewer travellers still – though in Scotland, almost no trains will run on 1 January.
Crowds will build back on Friday 2 January, with the final weekend of the festive season on Saturday 3 and Sunday 4 January seeing large numbers of travellers – many of them displaced to other lines by Network Rail engineering work.
The West Coast Main Line, which connects London Euston with the West Midlands, northwest England, North Wales and southern Scotland, will be closed on the key stretch from Milton Keynes and Rugby will remain closed up to and including 5 January to replace a junction at Hanslope in Buckinghamshire.
Chiltern Railway from London Marylebone, the East Coast Main Line north from London King’s Cross and the East Midlands line from London St Pancras will take the strain.
Further north, the West Coast Main Line between Preston and Carlisle will close from New Year’s Eve to 15 January inclusive. A shuttle service will connect the two cities via the scenic Settle & Carlisle Railway.
One of the UK’s busiest stations, London Waterloo, will be closed from the end of services on Christmas Eve to Sunday 28 December inclusive.
No trains will run on the main line between Leeds and York until the start of services on 3 January.
How busy will the trains be?
The Independent has assigned a star rating from one to five for the 14 days of Christmas rail travel from Friday 19 December to Sunday 4 January. (No trains run on 25 December, and on 26 December there are too few to give a meaningful estimate.)
The more the stars, the higher the likely number of passengers.
Friday 19 December: ****
Saturday 20 December: *****
Sunday 21 December: ****
Monday 22 December: *****
Tuesday 23 December: *****
Wednesday 24 December: **
Saturday 27 December: ****
Sunday 28 December: ***
Monday 29 December: ****
Tuesday 30 December: ***
Wednesday 31 December: **
Thursday 1 January: *
Friday 2 January: ***
Saturday 3 January: ****
Sunday 4 January: ****
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