When David Cameron touched down in Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida for a meeting with the former president this week, his mind was on one thing: Ukraine. The foreign secretary has made no secret of the fact that he wants to use his stateside charm offensive to build support among divided Republicans for military aid for Ukraine, including the $60bn of new funding that is currently being blocked in Congress.
Yet back home, it’s a different foreign affairs issue that is showing cracks: Israel-Palestine. While the Tories and Labour are broadly aligned on the need to support Ukraine, where the two parties stand on Israel and its actions in Gaza is knottier.
Since the Hamas attack on 7 October and Israel’s response, Keir Starmer has been under the most pressure from within his own party – with frontbenchers and backbenchers wishing he had been more supportive of Palestine earlier on. By contrast, the Tories have appeared – for a change – the more united on the issue. However, this is beginning to change. There is now a debate within the Conservative party over the UK government’s continuing support for Israel. Should they offer unequivocal support for an ally or be a critical friend?
The killing of three British aid workers by Israel Defense Forces airstrikes has led to MPs from all major political parties calling on the government to end arms trading with Israel. So far, Rishi Sunak has refused, with Cameron confirming in his Washington press conference, alongside US secretary of state Anthony Blinken, that Britain’s position on arms sales to Israel remains unchanged after the latest assessment of the government’s legal advice. Yet Sunak’s government is still being criticised by both sides.
There are those attacking the government for not taking robust enough action – with the Tory MPs Paul Bristow, Flick Drummond and David Jones among those to call for arms sales to be suspended. The former Tory minister Alan Duncan has gone so far as to claim pro-Israel “extremists” within the party – including some who sit around the cabinet table – ought to be expelled for failing to support international law.
However, given that Duncan is now being investigated by his party over these remarks, it’s more likely he will be the one out in the cold. Those suggesting the government must stand strong in its support include the former prime minister Boris Johnson, who used his Daily Mail column to say banning arms sales would be “insane”. Johnson is backed in his comments by many MPs including the potential Tory leadership hopefuls Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick.
“Israel-Gaza is becoming an increasingly potent dividing line in the party,” admits a minister of the conversations going on behind the scenes between MPs who could be described as identifying with the party’s Arabist tradition and the pro-Israel bloc. But it’s the latter that are by far the largest contingent. There are no official figures for how many MPs are in the Conservative Friends of Israel group, but one Tory says it is rumoured to be two-thirds of the party’s MPs. “The party has gone rightward over the past 20 years,” says a Tory MP. “That includes on Israel.”
It was a Tory prime minister, Edward Heath, who imposed an arms embargo on sales to Israel during the Yom Kippur war, but the shift began in earnest with Thatcher, who was the first British prime minister to visit Israel and whose own constituency, Finchley, had a large Jewish community. “It is interesting how the party has crossed over from largely pro-Arab to pro-Israel,” says a former minister.
It means that while there are splits in the parliamentary party, it is possible to overstate them. As one seasoned MP puts it: “I would say the party is largely Israel-leaning but unengaged. It’s a sentiment, but most are not particularly proactive.”
The groups of MPs who are proactive on both sides of the debate are small but loud. The Arabist force in the Tory party has some representatives in the Commons chamber – such as Crispin Blunt (the MP who lost the Tory whip after an arrest for sexual offences, which he has denied); Leo Docherty, the armed forces minister; and Alicia Kearns, the chair of the foreign affairs select committee. Kearns, while respected, is regarded by many in her party to be on the left of Tory thinking. However, a lot of the voices urging restraint or calling for an end to arms are outside the Commons. This includes the former ministers Alan Duncan, Alistair Burt and Hugo Swire.
So where is the foreign secretary? Some Tory MPs think Cameron has taken a harder line on Israel than they would like. This sentiment can be traced back to January, when he talked up UK recognition of a Palestinian state. The foreign secretary has also made noticeably emphatic statements, for instance, saying that Israel is the “occupying power” and is potentially in breach of international law. “Criticism of David [Cameron] has accelerated in the past few days,” reports a senior Tory. “The centre of gravity in the party is supporting Israel and sending arms. A lot of us think he is going too far the other way.” Others would like to hear more from Rishi Sunak directly on the issue, as Cameron’s interventions become more prolific.
As for where this goes next, it hasn’t gone unnoticed that the MPs speaking the loudest in support of Israel are those who are tipped as potential successors to Sunak. “It won’t be the main factor in a contest, but support for Israel will be a consideration.” It means the internal debate over the Tory party’s position on Israel is only likely to move in one direction after the election.
Katy Balls is the Spectator’s political editor
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