Make room, Julio Rodríguez.
Step aside, Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson.
There is another second-year franchise foundational player absolutely killing it, albeit for a team headed for a club-record 112 losses. Bobby Witt Jr. is the superstar hidden in plain sight.
Over the past three months, Witt is slashing .315/.357/.557 with 16 homers and 21 steals in 74 games, while also playing superb defense at shortstop and running faster than every regular except Elly De La Cruz of the Reds.
Witt is at the forefront of the greatest era of dynamic young players the game has ever seen—just in time, as the new rules encourage athleticism and basestealing. Witt recently reached 40 homers and 40 steals through his first 260 games. That makes six active players to reach 40-40 so quickly: Mike Trout, Ronald Acuña Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Jazz Chisholm Jr., Rodríguez and Witt.
That’s more in the past dozen years than in the previous 110 years (five: Bobby Bonds, Barry Bonds, Darryl Strawberry, Eric Davis and Kal Daniels).
Even among this unprecedented wave of dynamic players, Witt stands out. He is one of only two players in baseball who rank in the 90th percentile in max exit velocity, outs above average and sprint speed—the elite of the elite when it comes to the trinity of hitting, fielding and running. The other is the Mariners’ Rodríguez, who is more of a statistical doppelgänger of Witt than you might think (more below).
But let’s not limit the appreciation of Witt to this season. He is off to a historic start when it comes to combining power and speed. Through 279 career games, Witt has 46 home runs and 68 stolen bases. Only four other players reached those thresholds at the same point: Bobby and Barry Bonds, Davis and Trout.
Why is a talent like Witt relatively hidden? The 2019 second pick hit a disappointing .247/.286/.429 in his first 205 games entering June this year. Questions arose about his ability to hit fastballs. Kansas City bounced him between third base and shortstop. More than that, the Royals have been atrociously bad during his time in the big leagues (106–188).
Peter Aiken/USA TODAY Sports
Kansas City is still very much a bad team, but Witt has ascended to superstar status despite little help around him. Witt mostly hits first or second in the Royals’ lineup. Their No. 3 hitters have the worst OPS in MLB in that spot (.642) and the fourth-worst OBP in a full season since the mound was lowered in 1969 (.272).
How has Witt broken through to an elite level? Start with the World Baseball Classic. Witt didn’t play much, but he led the team in smiles. He took to the advice of U.S. manager Mark DeRosa: Soak up as much knowledge as you can from teammates such as Mookie Betts, Trout, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Witt made the most of his time in a winning environment, surrounded by great players.
The biggest change is how Witt has adjusted against fastballs. Look at these numbers for Witt against fastballs overall (not including cutters), and especially elevated fastballs, where pitchers picked at his weakness. You see a drastic change in the past three months from when he struggled against heaters in his first eight months in the big leagues:
Witt vs. Fastballs
| All Fastballs | High Fastballs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Avg. |
SLG |
LA |
Avg. |
SLG |
LA |
|
April 2022–May 2023 |
.236 |
.415 |
17.8° |
.201 |
.391 |
26.4° |
June 2023–August 2023 |
.354 |
.638 |
13.2° |
.377 |
.830* |
21.5° |
*2nd Highest in MLB (Min. 200 high fastballs)
Note the adjustment in the launch angle. Witt lowered his, especially against elevated fastballs, to make better contact. How did he do it? Start with his setup.
April 2022
August 2023
If you’re getting beat by high fastballs, stand a little taller and raise your hands so that you create a more direct path to the hitting area. Note, too, that Witt has moved closer to the plate. Witt is one of those hitters with a “scissors” kick with the back leg. That is, his back foot slides behind him as he gets through the baseball. Nothing wrong with that—just ask Jose Altuve. But if the foot slides back too soon, you don’t get the back side through the baseball to hit with power. Witt is more linear with his movement through the baseball this year, perhaps emphasized by getting closer to the plate.
Now let’s look at his path to the baseball. We can compare a strikeout last year on a high fastball against Joe Ryan (the bat is underneath the baseball) to a home run on a similar pitch last month from Tyler Glasnow.
April 2022
July 2023
That’s a flatter bat path this year. The torso is in a more stable position. The shoulders are less tilted.
Now let’s look at the finish. Again, we will use the fastballs from Ryan and Glasnow:
April 2022
July 2023
With the flatter bat path this year, Witt’s hands remain lower on the follow-through. The swing from last year is a more uphill swing, in which the barrel is in and out of the hitting zone quickly. The swing this year reduces the uphill angle and provides more barrel time in the hitting area.
The differences are more subtle than dramatic, but the effect is astounding. Witt turned a weakness into a strength during this season: He went from a .201 hitter against high fastballs to one of the best high-fastball sluggers in baseball over the past three months. Only Arenado has crushed high fastballs at a better rate.
With four more home runs, Witt will become the fifth-youngest 30-30 player in history. And he could join Willie Mays (1957) and Jimmy Rollins (2007) as the only 30-30 players to lead the league in triples.
Those kinds of numbers will grow more impressive as the new rules spawn an era of exciting baseball. The game already is packed with young players to flourish in this environment that rewards range on defense and taking chances on the bases.
Witt is one of the top six players born in 2000 or later as ranked by WAR, joining Wander Franco, Rodríguez, Michael Harris II, Carroll and Henderson. (Other dynamic players behind them include shortstops De La Cruz, CJ Abrams, Anthony Volpe and Ezequiel Tovar.)
Of the top six young stars, all but Witt and Henderson are signed to long-term deals. The price of waiting on players like this is much higher than the risk of gaining team control into what would be their free-agent years.
Best Players Born This Century
| WAR | Age | G | HR | SB | TB | OPS | Contract | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Franco |
11.6 |
22.180 |
265 |
30 |
40 |
471 |
.795 |
11 years, $182M |
Rodríguez |
11.2 |
22.241 |
257 |
51 |
60 |
510 |
.833 |
7 years, $119.3M |
Harris |
7.7 |
22.174 |
229 |
31 |
39 |
382 |
.818 |
8 years, $72M |
Carroll |
5.9 |
23.007 |
158 |
26 |
42 |
285 |
.874 |
8 years, $111M |
Henderson |
5.4 |
22.060 |
153 |
26 |
8 |
255 |
.801 |
1 years, $723,000 |
Witt |
5.0 |
23.075 |
279 |
46 |
68 |
517 |
.768 |
1 years, $746,000 |
Note how close the numbers are for Rodríguez and Witt. Rodríguez was Rookie of the Year last season for a playoff team in Seattle and will get MVP votes this year for leading a second-half surge that has carried the Mariners into the AL West lead. Rodríguez and Witt were born 199 days apart in the same year, made their MLB debuts one day apart in the same year and have accumulated similar home run, stolen base and total base numbers.
Yet one of them remains a star hidden in plain sight. Here is why: Nobody has been this dynamic over his first two years amid so much losing.
40 HRs & 60 SB in First Two Seasons
| Team | HR | SB | W-L | Pct. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rodríguez |
2022–23 Mariners |
51 |
60 |
164–128 |
.562 |
Bobby Bonds |
1968–69 Giants |
41 |
61 |
178–146 |
.549 |
Barry Bonds |
1986–87 Pirates |
41 |
68 |
144–180 |
.444 |
Witt |
2022–23 Royals |
46 |
68 |
106–188 |
.361 |
