Here we are again with the New England Patriots as reigning Super Bowl champions and the rest of the league trying to catch up. Rob Gronkowski and the rest of his beer-swilling team-mates have completed their duck boat parade of downtown Boston to officially cap the 2016 season, and so that means it’s time for the NFL to officially turn the page to draft season. Seven rounds, 223 draft spots, 31 teams trying desperately to find players who will help them become the new Patriots.
The NFL – and all sports leagues, as the cliche goes – is a “copycat league”, and all the Patriots wannabes will undoubtedly try to copy the New England model in April’s draft and that model is to ... uhh ... hmm ... not actually draft that well? Can that be right? For all of Bill Belichick’s many strengths, drafting is not at the top of the list. You could say the long-held NFL rule that you build a team through the draft is another rule the de facto GM likes to skirt around.
Lest I be struck down by the football gods for in any way questioning Belichick’s supreme and all-encompassing genius, let’s quickly lay out the case before the lightning bolts rain down. First, take a look at the Patriots recent draft history and look for impact players. You’ll be able to count them on two hands even if you’re Jason Pierre-Paul. In the last 10 drafts, the Patriots have had eight first-round picks and those selections netted them Brandon Meriweather, Jerod Mayo, Devin McCourty, Nate Solder, Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, Dominique Easley and Malcom Brown. There are some solid players in there, but not a standout, franchise player in the bunch. And, yes, Belichick’s draft strategy is often to trade down to stockpile picks in later rounds. But does that mean he’s not allowed to bring in impact players when he actually uses a first-round pick?
On those value picks Belichick so loves, the Patriots undoubtedly have had some notable hits in recent years. Julian Edelman was a seventh-round selection, 232nd overall, in 2009. Aaron Hernandez was a fourth-rounder a year later. James White, who ran in the first walk-off touchdown in Super Bowl history a week ago, went in the fourth-round in 2014. Gronkowski was New England’s first of three second-round picks by the Patriots in 2010. Linebackers Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes came next, with the former becoming a bust and the latter a marginal NFL pro at best. For the successes like Edelman and Gronkowski and Hernandez before he began a new career in prison, there have been far more misses or selections of guys who are just interchangeable parts. Names like Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley and Bryan Stork. Guys who could easily be swapped out and replaced without the team missing a beat.
That is a fact. But it’s a fact that – like everything in professional football – seems to ultimately benefit the Patriots. That New England is not built through unparalleled draft success makes trying to bridge the gap between the have-nots and the Patriots exponentially more frustrating. Outside of finding the next Tom Brady AND the next Bill Belichick, what is the draft really going to do for teams until one or both retires, age finally saps Brady’s arm, or the coach and QB accept positions in the Trump administration? (Hey, supposed Republican intellectual Newt Gingrich has already proposed Belichick work for Trump in the offseason in perhaps the worst column ever written.)
The sole reason the Patriots are able to draft the way they do, the luxury they have to frequently pass on the first-round and just roll the dice on a bunch of middle round guys, is because they have Belichick and Brady. No other team can do that. Employing the NFL’s unquestioned best at the two most important jobs on an NFL team allows for a lot of leeway come draft time. Even if the Patriots miss on every pick, they still run onto the field in Week 1 with Belichick and Brady and are heavy favorites. The rest of the league has crushing pressure to knock their picks, especially first-rounders, out of the park. You think the Browns can turn their organization around by loading up on fourth-, fifth- and sixth-rounders? Unless they happen to hit on the new Brady in the sixth-round and Hue Jackson also happens to be one of the better coaches in sports history, it’s not going to work. They’ll just lose with a lot more depth.
Edelman and White made plays in the Super Bowl LI that will be remembered as long as tackle football is played, but without Brady and Belichick the Patriots don’t win that game or even make that game. But, sure, if NFL teams want to model the five-time Super Bowl champions this draft and free agency season, here is how to do it:
1) Trade down in the draft
This was already covered above, but loading up on players in the middle rounds can help team depth, which is a fun thing a team can worry about if they have the best quarterback and coach in football in place until the end of their careers.
2) Look for good undrafted free agents
Making dynasty more improbable and impressive: Pats have most snaps in NFL by undrafted players over last decade (nearly 54,000 since 2007).
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 4, 2017
Malcolm Butler, who clinched New England’s previous Super Bowl with an interception of Russell Wilson, came to the Patriots as an undrafted free agent. Teams would do quite well to find the next Butler. Of course, no nickelback has ever led a team to a Super Bowl, so teams would be advised to find the next Brady and Belichick first before going too heavy into players not deemed good enough to spend a draft pick on.
3) Consider acquiring some veteran players. Or don’t. Whatever
As dominant as Gronkowski is when he’s healthy, the Patriots still managed to win the Super Bowl without him. Lucky for them they had traded for Martellus Bennett in the offseason and he became a more than capable fill-in. New England has hit on other acquisitions in the past – guys like Darrelle Revis and Jabaal Sheard – while whiffing on others, such as Chad Johnson and Albert Haynesworth. They keep winning regardless. Because they have Belichick and Brady.
4) Trade your backup quarterback for a ransom.
Maybe the most desired player this offseason is Patriots backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. The Eastern Illinois product has thrown 94 passes in three seasons and showed promise in two starts for the suspended Brady at the start of the regular season. But as much as they may deny it, Garoppolo is mostly coveted because teams hope Brady and Belichick have magically rubbed off on him and he’ll be ELITE. Matt Cassel, Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett all failed as even mid-level NFL starters, but maybe this time it will be different. Maybe. Of course, swapping you backup QB for a nice haul is really only something a team with Brady and Belichick can do. Again.
Good luck on catching the Patriots, NFL teams. You’ll need it.
