Denmark sliced its 2025 economic growth forecast in half recently after a cool-down at Novo Nordisk, the maker of diabetes drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, which have become popular among those wanting to quickly shed some pounds.
The dip in its growth forecast from 3% to 1.4% comes in large part due to weaker expectations for pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk—after the economy expanded by 3.7% last year due to a major boost from pharmaceutical exports.
The drop is partially tied to inventory buildup as well as increased competition in the weight-loss market, including a fall in exports to the US earlier in 2025.
The world's buzziest medicine has the power to not just move share prices, but also directly impact the earnings, trade flows and tax incomes of an entire country.
For two years, Denmark was the poster child for GLP-1 economics.
GLP-1 stands for glucagon-like peptide-1, a natural hormone that is released by the gut after eating that regulates blood sugar and appetite, preventing sudden spikes in blood sugar.
Its receptor agonists, like Wegovy and Ozempic, are medications that mimic the hormone's effects for people who have type 2 diabetes when their bodies stop naturally producing insulin. As such, the drugs reduce sugar production by the liver, slowing digestion and promoting satiety.
The satiety effects, along with reduced insulin-related inflammation, have produced striking weight loss even in people without diabetes—prompting reports of impressive results from celebrities and from those struggling with long-term weight issues.
The GLP-1 boom
In 2023, Danmarks Statistik said bluntly that without pharmaceutical sales, the economy would have contracted slightly—instead, GDP grew by 1.8%. That extraordinary concentration of profits is why a slowdown at one single company can now shave whole percentage points off the country’s outlook.
The new forecast reflects weaker expectations for Novo Nordisk and slower exports after a successful run. Competition from the US' Eli Lilly, supply constraints and pricing pressure have cooled sentiment, while new US tariffs place limits on exports to one of the largest Ozempic-crazed markets.
At the same time, Wall Street has been sketching the opposite, longer-run story for larger economies. Namely, if GLP-1 adoption by the mainstream health industry grows, productivity and consumption patterns could shift in ways that raise GDP.
Goldman Sachs estimates the drugs on their own could lift the level of US GDP by around 0.4% and over 1% in a high-uptake scenario. This comes as health agencies report fewer obesity-related illnesses, higher labour force participation and a consumer pivot towards healthier baskets.
"Poor health subtracts more than 10% from the level of US GDP due to lost work from sickness and disability, early deaths and informal caregiving, our researchers estimate," says a Goldman Sachs report from March 2024.
Besides lowering the chances of obesity, GLP-1 agonists have shown promising results for people dealing with heart issues, blood pressure and kidney disease, among others.
Walmart’s chief executive said in 2023 that shopping baskets of GLP-1 users contained “less units, slightly less calories" and "a slight pullback in the overall basket."
Even aviation has entered the chat. Analysts have modelled lower average passenger weights—if GLP-1 agonist uptake remains high—into airlines’ fuel-burning calculations.
One oft-cited estimate suggests major US carriers could save roughly $80 million (€68.3m) a year if the average passenger were 10 pounds lighter. While all of these are hypothetical future savings, it captures how pervasive the effects of drugs like Ozempic are on the market.
An ever-growing market
Morgan Stanley estimated in May that the global market for obesity drugs could reach up to $150 billion (€128bn) by 2035, up from a previous prediction of $105 billion (€89.7bn).
In fact, Morgan Stanley predicted a widespread adoption rate not unlike the "introduction of smartphones," with 11% of the global eligible population of 1.3 billion people being on some form of a GLP-1 agonist by 2035, including 20% of eligible patients in the US and 10% in other countries.
Currently, the adoption rate is around 3% in the US and only 1% in other nations, with the US being the biggest market in the world for obesity drugs with about 8 million patients—a number that could rise to 30 million in 2035.
