The war in the Middle East has put the Strait of Hormuz in the spotlight. It is one of the world's maritime "choke points" – narrow passages on which global trade depends, putting them at the centre of geopolitical tensions.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage between Iran and the Musandam Governorate, an exclave of Oman, around 40 kilometres wide with just two navigable channels. And yet, a fifth of the world’s oil passes through it, coming from the Gulf states and Iran.
Iran partially closed it in response to Israeli-American aggression, but in a letter sent to the International Maritime Organization on 25 March, Tehran announced that "non-hostile" vessels may now use it, provided they comply with safety regulations.
The immediate consequences of its closure were stranded oil tankers, and a global economy under strain.
Speaking to UK newspaper The Guardian, former US defence secretary Leon Panetta lambasted US President Donald Trump’s handling of the situation.
“This is not rocket science to understand that if you’re going to conduct a war with Iran, one of the great vulnerabilities is the strait of Hormuz, and [it] could create an immense oil crisis that could drive the price of fuel sky-high," he said.
“In every national security council I’ve been a part of where we’ve talked about Iran, that subject always came up. For some reason, either they didn’t consider that could be a consequence or they thought the war would end quickly and they wouldn’t have to worry about that.”
G7 unity tested as US envoy Rubio faces pressure from allies on Iran
He continued: "The problem is he can declare victory all he wants but, if he doesn’t get the ceasefire, he’s got nothing. And he’s not going to get a ceasefire as long as Iran is holding the gun of the strait of Hormuz against his head.”
Iran's foreign minister said on Wednesday that the country was not currently negotiating with the US to end the war and "does not intend" to do so.
Meanwhile, the economic repercussions are already evident: rising energy prices, heightened risks of inflation and extremely volatile financial markets, with the fragility of the dependence on maritime trade laid bare.
Inflation in France jumps as Iran war hits growth and spending
Choke points
Additionally, there is the risk of closure of another strategic maritime passage – the Strait of Mandeb on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, between Yemen and Africa. There, the Houthis – backed by Iran – control the Yemeni coastline, and have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping in the area.
Bab el-Mandeb is a vital artery for trade between Asia and Europe. Given a double blockade, of Hormuz and Mandeb, the global economy would falter.
Dubai’s thriving global financial hub faces wartime stress test
This passage also leads to yet another crucial point: the Suez Canal, in Egypt.
In 2021, when the container ship Ever Given became stuck there, blocking hundreds of ships, global trade ground to a standstill for several days.
Finally, there is the Strait of Malacca, between Malaysia and Indonesia, which sees 80,000 ships a year pass through it. Like the other choke points, it is difficult to secure and incredibly easy to disrupt – with a drone attack, a mine, even a simple accident.
This article was adapted from the original version in French by Sami Boukhelifa.
