During the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, investors, businesses, policymakers and the Federal Reserve were groping in the dark for clues about the health of the American job market. The federal workers who collect data on hiring and unemployment had been furloughed and couldn’t do their jobs.
Now that the shutdown is over, the Labor Department will finally let a little light in Thursday, releasing jobs numbers for September — nearly seven weeks after they were due.
Economists expect to see a continuation of what was happening in the spring and summer: weak hiring but few layoffs, an awkward pairing that means Americans who have work mostly enjoy job security — but those who don’t often struggle to find employment.
Normally the stock and bond markets would shrug off such old data, said market strategist Matthew Ryan at the financial services firm Ebury. But investors are so desperate for fresh economic numbers that “we expect volatility around the report to be extremely high.’’
Here's the latest:
Labor Department said Wednesday that it won’t won’t release a full jobs report for October
That’s because it couldn’t calculate the unemployment rate during the government shutdown.
Instead, it will release some of the October jobs data — including the number of jobs that employers created last month — along with the full November jobs report Dec. 16, a couple of weeks late.
That puts an even more intense focus on September jobs numbers released Thursday. They are the last full measurement of hiring and unemployment that Fed policymakers will see before they meet Dec. 9-10 to decide whether to cut their benchmark interest rate for the third time this year.
Chief US economist at Santander bank is more optimistic about September hiring than most peers
Stephen Stanley forecasts that employers added 75,000 jobs.
President Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration is expected to reduce the number of people looking for work, which means the economy can create fewer jobs without sending the unemployment rate higher.
In the past, Stanley wrote in a commentary Wednesday, the “breakeven’’ point for monthly job creation was seen as somewhere between 125,000 and 150,000; but as fewer immigrants seek work, he says, the job market can remain stable even if employers add just 50,000 jobs a month, maybe fewer.
