A premature election is bound to be a bit anxiety-inducing. This is why we are all at one with vox-popped Brenda of Bristol, who simply can’t be doing with it. But we have to do with it. Already, so much is being said that I find completely mystifying. Truths emerge in Westminster circles that are then regurgitated.
The line of attack on Theresa May is that by calling a snap election she has performed a U-turn. But this is irrelevant to most people. Electoral politics, like crime, is largely based on opportunism. May’s whole deal is the poker face, keeping cards close to her chest, accusing everyone else of playing games. This is how she took unelected power herself. In office, she continues to accrue it. This is precisely the “strength” that many trust she will exhibit in the Brexit negotiations.
Why wouldn’t she call a snap election? She needs more than two years even to get the beginnings of a deal through. Labour is floundering, Ukip has gone full Reservoir Dogs and the Lib Dems have found a role as happy-clappy remainers, but that’s not enough to sell Tim Farron and his merry men to most of us.
May’s timing is also to do with using Brexit as a shield for the fact that most of her actual policies are flailing. The totemic grammar schools plan is being shot down. Philip Hammond’s budget went up in smoke. None of this is about unity or mandates or the will of the people; it is about a Tory party that still can’t govern.
Her weakness thus far has been presented as strength, but it is now apparent. She is not good in debates or on TV. She is dull. At a lunch with her once, I remember gazing over at her security men and wishing I could be at their table. Any other table. She gives nothing, rarely answers a question and just repeats her practised lines. Her hinterland (crisps, the church and the edgy Westwood wardrobe) is as lacking as her sense of humour.
Still, in times of uncertainty, a stern, serious leader who goes around crushing dissent is much more trusted than Corbyn, who, stunningly, actually came up with some policies last week. But that was last week. Now, his supporters are telling us to get behind him, that there hasn’t been enough time to grow the movement; some say electoral politics was never their goal. The goal – socialist revolution – has shrunk in scope day-by-day to become simply getting though the next 24 hours. It may also involve ensuring the next Corbynite successor, a process as baffling as the one by which the next Dalai Lama is chosen.
Time, though, has run out. Friends who have voted their entire lives for no one but Labour wail about whether they can bring themselves to vote Green or Lib Dem. Many say there is no one they actually want to vote for. This “none of the above” feeling is not a new one for me; I get told off for it at every election. It was why I once stood for parliament. I heartily recommend this mad undertaking to all; at least I got to put a cross against my own name. My frustration in 2010 was driven by the fact that my vote didn’t count, because I live in a safe seat. But the Lib Dems screwed up of our chance of PR with their incomprehensible AV plans, so we are stuck.
The EU referendum has changed everything. People are now discussing this election as if it were a referendum, as if every vote mattered equally for everyone. It doesn’t. That is not the system we have. It matters in marginals, and the Tories may not win quite as big as they want to, but hits in the north will be a blow to Labour. The Lib Dems may add 20 or so seats. Labour is predicted to lose about 50 seats. Turnout is unpredictable; there is a lot of fatigue. Young people, who are exhorted to vote, should be able to do so at 16. Their disenfranchisement is now economic as well as political.
Militant remainers are delusional about how much support they have. They have mistakenly chosen to be led by discarded middle-aged Blairites and Nick Clegg. Many people just want politicians to get on with Brexit. They are not full of regret. But there is a real divide in this country; May is wrong to locate it in Westminster alone. Much of that divide could manifest in voter apathy. Her refusal to participate in TV debates may feed that.
The confusion over whether this is a second Brexit referendum or a vote about the things Labour wants to put on the agenda – the NHS, school funding and social care – is numbing. Are voters going to vote for MPs who don’t support their own leader or their leader’s stance on Brexit? It feels as if this is actually a vote on leadership. Tactical voting now seems like a necessity in certain seats. The call for Labour to unify behind Corbyn takes the form of describing anyone who doesn’t wish to as “Tory scum”. This is the apotheosis of all that hope of renewal. It is in and of itself defeatist.
Opposition has to come from an alliance. It is Labour who have refused to countenance alliances. It is that party that will pay the price. The politics of purity have polluted the atmosphere so much that when May saw that she could get a clean sweep, she went for it. Who can stop her?
