There is no guarantee when Jalen Hurts will be back in the Philadelphia Eagles’ lineup. This is a concern because if the Eagles want to take first place in NFC East, and the NFC’s one-seed, they’re facing a must-win game next week against the New York Giants.
The Eagles are now 0-2 with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew. In his two starts, Minshew has a 58.1% completion rating, three touchdowns, three interceptions, four fumbles and six sacks. On top of the passing game being sub-par, this is the second week in a row that the Eagles’ rushing attack hasn’t exceeded 100 yards.
The Eagles were unable to get into a rhythm when they opened up against the New Orleans Saints, as their first four drives ended in three-and-outs. They had only 61 net yards in the first half.
After two full games, one thing has become clear: the system in which Hurts thrives is not the offense that Minshew is capable of running.
If the Eagles want to win the NFC East and any playoff games with Minshew, it will be because the coaching staff is forced to make changes and run a specific scheme that is tailored for their backup quarterback.
Let’s dive into the film to see what the Eagles have to do to win with Minshew.
Minshew's early struggles.
When going back to analyze Minshew’s snaps over these last two games, there are definitely some struggles that jump out on film. Some of these concerns were the same ones he showed with the Jacksonville Jaguars back in 2019- 2020. Low-velocity passes, bad decision-making, and poorly placed throws.
Minshew struggled early-on in last week’s game against the Saints. On the Eagles third offensive drive (where the Eagles have yet to get a first down) the offense comes out in a 3×1 look. DeVonta Smith runs a comeback route from the outside slot position.
In this clip, when Minshew gets to the back of the pocket, instead of getting rid of the ball, he holds it for just a second too long. This allows the defensive lineman to bat the ball at the line of scrimmage.
When Minshew holds onto it for too long, this is where his mechanics begin to fail him, and he’s less likely to make an accurate throw.
On a similar play against the Cowboys last week. Minshew was falling to the side without any real pressure, causing the placement to be slightly off. This ball got intercepted.
We saw this back in 2019 as well. In the clip below, the receiver was running the comeback route, with his defender playing off-coverage.
Minshew doesn’t take advantage of the off-coverage defense and gets the ball out late. Which turned an easy completion into a contested catch.
Over these last two weeks when Minshew got the ball out under 2.5 seconds, he had a 63.2% completion percentage. On dropbacks lasting 2.5+ seconds or more, his completion percentage drops to 54.1% (per Pro Football Focus). The Eagles need to do a better job getting the ball out of his hands.
Minshew vs. man coverage.
Check out Minshew’s first nine passes of last week’s game:
It’s great that most of these plays were designed to get the ball out early, but Minshew was either taking sacks trying to move through his reads, or he was late getting it out. The first play of the game that resulted in positive yardage (outside of the checkdown) is when Minshew actually got the ball out quick to A.J. Brown running the slant.
Most of these coverages that we saw from the Saints defense were man-match from an off-coverage look. Against man coverages, quarterbacks have to be quick and accurate.
Since Minshew was second-guessing himself, instead of getting the ball out quickly, the Eagles did what most teams would do with their playmakers if they were seeing man coverage: Use motion and exploit the one-on-one matchups deep.
In the third quarter, A.J. Brown was alone with his defender at the top of the screen:
Minshew just threw it up, giving one of his best players a chance to make a play. Just like that the Eagles pulled within three points.
As soon as the Eagles scored their first touchdown, on the very next drive, the Saints switched to zone defense. Now, Minshew was finally moving the ball. He found a soft spot in the defense and got it to his tight end Dallas Goedert for 15 yards.
Minshew has always performed well against zone defenses. This is when he does a great job in the pocket, avoiding pressure then can find his open receivers between zones.
Last week, Minshew was able to find tight end Dallas Goedert up the seam running a deep crosser against the Cowboys’ defense.
Moving forward.
In order for Minshew to be successful in the Eagles’ offense, the coaches must open up the playbook and adjust the play calling and expand their formations.
If the defense is lined up in man coverage, the Eagles need to call more rub routes which can open up the receivers right out of their release. In the clip of the first nine plays, there were only two plays that contained a rub route, and only one of those came from a stacked look.
Running a spread offense against man coverage works great when you have a quarterback like Hurts, who can place the ball extremely well.
Another adjustment should be in the run game. Against the Saints, on a critical third-and-three, the Eagles came out in an empty look.
Again, this would have been the perfect play call if Hurts was in the game. Unfortunately, he wasn’t.
The Eagles didn’t seem to open the playbook at all for Minshew. They only called two rush plays in the entire first half; even though they are the most efficient rushing offense in the league, according to football outsiders.
This 11 personnel group is great if the quarterback can attack a defense with their athleticism. It forces defenses to cover the pass, a quarterback keep, and a handoff. Unfortunately, Minshew won’t fool a defense in a run option.
But bringing in heavier looks can give Minshew favorable opportunities deep. This is exactly how the Eagles were able to expose the Cowboys in week 16. Two tight ends lined up and the offense ran a play action pass with Smith running a slant/corner route.
Once Minshew gains the confidence from the play calls, he should have no problem getting the ball out quicker. It’s when he holds onto the ball is where the problems occur.
In 2019, when Minshew played for the Jaguars, his yards per pass attempt was 7.0, and per pass completion was 11.5. Yet, in his two starts with the Eagles, he is at 8.7 yards per attempt and 15.1 per completion.
One part of a passing game that can lower the yards per completion is the screen game. It just so happens that two of the biggest plays that came from the Saints game, were both from screens.
The Eagles have only run four screens in the last two games. Screens are also a great way to force defenses into running more zone coverage.
In man coverage, the receivers can block or run the defender out of the play, creating a bigger lane for the ball carrier. If we’ve learned one thing about Minshew’s game, he can thrive against zone defenses.
It would be difficult for any quarterback to succeed in an offense that isn’t tailored to his strengths. Minshew is a viable quarterback when the cards are right. It’s all about getting him into a rhythm and that’s when ‘Air Raid’ quarterbacks are at their best. Spreading defenses thin, finding holes in coverages with several guys running crossers and most importantly a check down in the flat. Sprinkle in some heavy personnel looks to help the run game, and Minshew can get it done.
If the Eagles can address these few areas, they will see a big difference in how the offense operates. Which could propel them into the postseason… even without Jalen Hurts.
